The Power of a Song

How does one even begin to write about a film that has been engrained in your memory since childhood? A film so universally known (and beloved) that the Library of Congress has named it the film watched by more people than any other in the world. A film so steeped in our culture that you can't go a day without coming into contact with a reference from it. (After reading that yesterday, I was a little skeptical. But, then last night, I was watching Wreck-It Ralph and a hilarious joke about Oreos–do I even need to spell it out?–made me realize: Yes. Every. Single. Day. Well played, Wizard of Oz.) The film is near perfect (if we're being honest, that "King of the Forest" number kinda slows things down) and trying to pick a favorite shot from it for the start of this season's Hit Me With Your Best Shot is overwhelming.

I remember being a child and watching it every year on television (we never had cable, so when a movie like this came on it was a big deal for me. I also have that feeling about The Ten Commandments–which I'll eventually finish once they leave Egypt one of these days, The Sound of Music, and Mary Poppins). Then in fifth grade, I did a community theatre production of it as a singing tree and flower (apparently, I was too tall to be a munchkin). I was then able to sing along to every word of the songs. (Including the cut Jitterbug number. It wasn't good enough to keep in the film, but–hey, let's leave it in the stage version...) And for all the special effects (the Wicked Witch's entrance in a cloud of red smoke and Glinda's in a dishwashing soap bubble are still pretty fun) or the incredible use of color (that door opening, revealing the Technicolor world of Oz is undeniably magical. The first film to use color! My dad used to tell me. It wasn't.), the thing that I remember most is a song.

That song. "Somewhere Over the Rainbow". It's taken on a life of it's own. At the end of a recent Broadway show about the last month's of Judy Garland's life, the actress playing Judy starts to sing an a capella version of it. My friend next to me immediately started sobbing. After the show was over, my friend turned to me and said, "that song will never not affect me." Because it speaks to the heart of what the film is and our connection to it. It's about beleiving in something. Dreaming of a life that's better than the one you've got. Remembering what it was like to be filled with childlike longing. Wondering if there's a place where the dreams that you dare to dream really do come true.

There have been many versions of it. (Tori Amos does a great, sad version of it. Surprise–Tori makes something sad! And there's that version with the Hawaiian singer with the ukulele. You know the one.) But no one can touch Judy Garland as Dorothy in this movie singing that song. That voice, that was able to carry so much depth and emotion gets right into your soul. And really it's just her and some hay in those rich sepia tones and that's about it. But, that's all you need. When the camera shows the sun shining through the clouds and she looks up and smiles at it, your heart melts. And I am immediatelly taken back to being a child.

A Year in Advance Oscar Predictions 2013: Best Supporting Actress

This was my best category last year. I correctly predicted 3.5 out of 5. (Adams, Hathaway, and Field are the 3. Helen Hunt is the half because I predicted her in Lead. The only one I got completely wrong was Annette Bening in the Kristen Wiig-starring, Imogen. It's coming out this summer and now being called Girl Most Likely. I tend to get excited for Bening since she acts in so little. I mean, I even predicted her for a Supporting nom for The Women back in the day. And if you've seen it you, you'll know how off that was...) This year there's no sure bets. We have a return to acting for a certain former talk show host (you're getting a car!). Two of my favorite actresses could be making their way back to Oscar after their last nominations in 2007 and 1995! A never-nominated movie star could find her first nomination. As well as a character actress that fell on the stairs to get her award long before J. Law made it cool...

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett The Monuments Men

Cameron Diaz The Counselor

Margo Martindale August: Osage County

Emma Thompson Saving Mr. Banks

Oprah Winfrey The Butler

Cate Blanchett The Monuments Men

The Role: I don't know! But, the film is being directed by Oscar winner, George Clooney, and is about an assembled group of art historians and museum curators in the 1940's trying to rescue priceless works of art before Hitler and the Nazi's destroy them. Basically it's The Avengers for the art house set. The ensemble also includes Clooney himself, Daniel Craig, Matt Damon, Bill Murray, John Goodman, and Best Actor Oscar winner, Jean Dujardin. Cate is the Scarlett Johansson of the group. Although, I think it's safe to assume that her art historian character won't be wearing a leather catsuit...

Why Her: This Best Supporting Actress winner (and 5 time nominee) hasn't received a nomination since her double-nominated year in 2007. And nothing she's been in since then has exactly screamed Oscar, having chosen to go more action-adventure (Indiana Jones, Robin Hood, The Hobbit) than prestige. But, her natural ability to marry the technicalities of the craft with raw talent and emotion has earned her a reputation as the actress most likely to be the new Meryl Streep. And even Streep had a dry spell with Oscar in the early 90's (She-Devil anyone?). And with the slate of new projects Blanchett has lined up, including two Terrence Malick films and Woody Allen's latest, Blue Jasmine, it seems that the actress is ready to rack up some more nominations. Her best bet seems to be this film, which seems like the type of high-brow thing Oscar voters gravitate towards. 

Real Housewife of Border-Town Mexico

Cameron Diaz The Counselor

The Role: Malkina, the femme fatale, in the Ridley Scott-directed, Cormac McCarthy-scripted film. Her character is the lover of Reiner (Javier Bardem) and, apparently, highly sexual and mysterious (well, obviously). If you go to the message board on imdb, everyone who has read the script talks about how this is the best part in the film. At one point Angelina Jolie was attached to play it. 

Why Her: No, you didn't misread the name. That Cameron Diaz. It's been a long time since the four-time Golden Globe nominated actress has challenged herself in a Being John Malkovich or Vanilla Sky and has contented herself for being one of Hollywood's highest paid actresses in popcorn-fare like Knight and Day and Bad Teacher. In fact, at this point, it seems Jennifer Lopez has a better shot at being nominated. But, early word is that Diaz nails the part, standing out in a film that includes Bardem,  Brad Pitt, Michael Fassbender, and Penelope Cruz. It's looking very likely that we'll have to start addressing her as Oscar nominee, Cameron Diaz. 

Margo Martindale August: Osage County 

The Role: The Emmy-award-winning actress of Justified, plays Mattie Fae Aiken, the sister to Meryl Streep's character. In a large cast of supporting characters being played by Oscar nominees Juliette Lewis and Abigail Breslin, Oscar winner Chris Cooper (playing Martindale's husband), and British thespians Ewan McGregor and Benedict Cumberbatch (playing Martindale's son), the role of Mattie Fae really stands out from the others. She is definitely a source of comic relief as the larger-than-life aunt. The role brought a Tony to actress Randi Reed when it was on Broadway and Martindale really does seem like perfect casting for the part.

Why Her: The Supporting categories weren't created until the 9th Oscar ceremony so that character actors and supporting players wouldn't have to compete against movie stars for awards. Nominating an actress like Margo Martindale, a character actress making her career in supporting roles, is the reason this category exists. She may not be recognizable by name alone, but whenever she pops up on screen like as Julianne Moore's babysitter in The Hours, or as Hilary Swank's mother in Million Dollar Baby, or, most memorably, in Alexander Payne's segment in Paris, je t'aime, there is instant familiarity and you think to yourself, 'oh, her. I like her'. Perhaps her work in August: Osage County will be the thing to bring the recognition of an Oscar nomination.

"Yes, Mary Poppins is fiction. I am not her. Now, has anyone seen my magical flying umbrella that talks?"

Emma Thompson Saving Mr. Banks

The Role: Based on the real-life story of bringing Mary Poppins to the screen, Best Actress (and Best Screenplay) winner, Emma Thompson, plays P.L. Travers, the Australian author of the books the popular film was adapted from. Travers fought with Walt Disney (played by Tom Hanks) about the way the story was being portrayed–particularly the animated segment, which she felt was too saccharine. The film also flashes back to her childhood in Australia where she grew up with a hard-nosed father (Colin Farrell) who became the inspiration for the no-nonsense patriarch of the books, Mr. Banks.

Why Her: The go-to thinking-man's actress of the 90's hasn't received a nomination since her Best Actress nom and Best Adapted Screenplay win for 1995's Sense and Sensibility. It seems about time that she's welcomed back into the fold. As a writer herself, the role seems like a good fit for her and just the sort of true-life story that gets nominated. The part could, most likely, go lead. In which case, I could see her bumping off Julia Roberts in my predicted five there. But, the addition of flashback and the parts showing the team at Disney (including Jason Schwartzman and B.J. Novak playing Mary Poppins songwriters, the Sherman Brothers) creating the film makes me think that there's a good case for it to feel more like an ensemble. Frankly, I just want Thompson to get another nomination. It's a shame that Meryl Streep is casting director's only choice for good roles for women over 50 (she was apparently in talks to even play this role), so I'm just excited to see Thompson given the chance to tackle what sounds like an interesting role. But, a fifth acting Oscar nomination sure couldn't hurt...

Yep, Lenny Kravitz is in this as well. 

Oprah Winfrey The Butler

The Role: Director Lee Daniels (Precious, The Paperboy), brings to the screen the based-on-a-true-story tale of a White House butler who served under eight presidents. Oprah, in her first big-screen acting role since 1998's Beloved, stars as the wife, Gloria Gaines, to the titular butler (Oscar winner, Forest Whitaker). The film also boasts an all-star cast which includes Robin Williams as Eisenhower, James Marsden as JFK, John Cusak as Nixon, Alan Rickman as Reagan, and Jane Fonda as Nancy Reagan. 

Why Her: Because she's OOoooooOOpppPPPrRRRRaaAAAAHHHH!!! Before she was the most influential person on television, champion of literary works, philanthropist, and famous enough to just be known by simply her first name, Winfrey was a Best Supporting Actress nominee in The Color Purple. If anyone has watched her talk show, they know that in addition to her crusade to find the best you, she loves the movies–and Oscar in particular. She even held her show on the Oscar stage the day after the ceremony for many years, talking to the 4 acting winners. It seems like a safe bet to say that she would like to win one herself. She had even wanted to play Viola Davis's Oscar-nominated part in Doubt. But because the part is so small and Oprah being such a known personality, director John Patrick Shanley felt that it would take the audience out of the film. That shouldn't be the case with The Butler where it seems everyone has shown up for a small role. And with The Butler, Winfrey is playing a role that Oscar loves to nominate in this category: the supportive/suffering wife (just look at Adams, Field, and Weaver from just last year). Now that she's no longer in America's home daily, it seems that she'll be able to disappear into the role (well, as much as she can) and maybe even get that second nomination. If it doesn't happen, I have a feeling she'll be okay...

Other Contenders: Amy Adams Untitled David O. Russell Film, Jennifer Garner Dallas Buyers Club, Nicole Kidman The Railway Man, Julianne Moore Carrie, Carey Mulligan Inside Llewyn Davis

A Year In Advance Oscar Predictions 2013: Best Supporting Actor

The supporting categories are always the hardest to predict so far ahead. Last year I correctly predicted Supporting Actor noms for Argo and Django Unchained (Yay!)...but Bryan Cranston and Leonardo DiCaprio, respectively (Ah, man). It's always hard to know which roles will stand out in an ensemble, especially when I know so little about the different roles. The other big thing is–what lead roles are gonna be campaigned for supporting? There's only 20 spots a year for acting and literally hundreds of actors vying for them. Sometimes it's better to bump down to Supporting to guarantee that nom.

Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem The Counselor

Josh Brolin Labor Day

Steve Carrell Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch The Fifth Estate

Joaquin Phoenix Lowlife

Villain + Crazy Hair=Oscar

Javier Bardem The Counselor

The Role: Pulitzer Prize winner Cormac McCarthy's first original screenplay is being directed by three-time Best Director Oscar nominee, Ridley Scott. The story is set along the US/Mexico border (and for anyone familiar with McCarthy's work, that shouldn't come as a surprise) and follows a Counselor (the attorney is played by Michael Fassbender) who wants in on a big payday, so he teams up with Reiner (Bardem), a wealthy business acquaintance in Mexico, to unload $20 million worth of cocaine. The part of Reiner is considered the showiest of the male roles and was apparently pursued by both Jeremy Renner and Brad Pitt as well (Pitt is now a different supporting part in the film). The script was leaked online, so if you do some digging you can probably find it. I personally haven't read it, but according to those who have, Reiner has pet cheetahs. So, yeah.

Why Him: The three-time Oscar nominee (and Best Supporting Actor winner for No Country for Old Men–based on Cormac McCarthy's book) certainly knows his way around a villain. His performance in last year's Bond film Skyfall generated Oscar talk and even brought a SAG nomination. Which, let's face it, was the only time anyone's seriously considered a Bond performance for an Oscar. Bardem is also one of my favorite actors, so I tend to mark him down for nominations. I predicted him two years in a row for a Best Actor nom for Biutiful. Usually if a film isn't released the year it's supposed to, I just give up (like with Garrett Hedlund in On the Road), but something about the power of Bardem made me trust that he'd get a nom. Which he did, but that's mostly due to Julia Roberts. Hopefully his performance will stand on it's own and he'll be rewarded with another nomination. Uh, did I mention the cheetahs?!?

Josh Brolin Labor Day

The Role: The former Best Supporting Actor nominee (Milk), joins Kate Winslet in Jason Reitman's film adaptation of Joyce Maynard's Labor Day. Brolin plays a mysterious stranger named Frank, who turns out to be an escaped convict, that enters into the life of Winslet's character. He has a profound affect on her and and her son's lives. 

Why Him: Like Winslet, Brolin hasn't been nominated since 2008. But he has the potential to have a very good 2013. In addition to Labor Day (which is really the only film that seems like it would bring a nomination), he also stars in Spike Lee's version of the Korean film Oldboy and is the lead in the sequel to the popular Sin City. Being successful at the box office certainly helps with your Oscar chances (I have a feeling that The Hunger Games had a lot to do with J. Law's win this year). And working with Reitman and Winslet, who are no strangers to Oscar, is definitely a good sign.

Steve Carrell Foxcatcher

The Role: Comedian Steve Carrell takes on the dramatic role of John du Pont. Based on a true story, du Pont was a millionaire and sports enthusiast who set up a wrestling facility on his estate, Foxcatcher Farm. The film concerns the murder of Olympic wrestler Dave Schultz (Mark Ruffalo) whom du Pont shot in his driveway. It was later determined that he was a paranoid schizophrenic. Bennett Miller (Oscar nominee for Capote) directs. 

Why Him: This is the first of 2 nominees I have predicted that could go either way in Supporting or Lead. There's no doubt that it sounds like a juicy role–the kind that leads to an Oscar nomination. But, I've put him in Supporting because, from what I've heard, the film is based on the memoir by Dave Schultz's brother Mark (Channing Tatum) and the story is told from his point of view. So, in terms of story, Tatum would be Lead. But, like I said, we'll have to wait and see. 

Carrell, who was Emmy nominated 6 times (and never won!) for his role on television's The Office, has already broken out of his small-screen roots with the hit comedies 40-Year-Old Virgin, Anchorman, and others. But, this role would be a big departure for him. True, he's done well in roles that aren't necessarily comedic like the gay, suicidal uncle in Oscar nominated Little Miss Sunshine and got great reviews for Dan in Real Life in which he fall's in love with his brother's girlfriend. But those films were still technically comedies. This will really be the time for him to show his chops as a dramatic actor. But, Oscar isn't always impressed (see Jim Carrey. Man, he really wanted a nomination there for a while). But Bennett Miller has directed 4 actors to noms, including a who-woulda-thought nom for raunchy-humor-enthusiast, Jonah Hill, in Moneyball. If it can happen for him, I have a feeling that Carrell shouldn't be too far behind.

"If this whole WikiLeaks thing doesn't work, I can always join an albino grunge band..."

Benedict Cumberbatch The Fifth Estate

The Role: In what's being called this year's The Social Network (cause, you know, everything has to be like something else. Who wants something original?!), British actor Benedict Cumberbatch (BBC's Sherlock) stars at WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. The film (being directed by Dreamgirls and Kinsey director and Oscar winning writer of Gods and Monsters, Bill Condon) focuses on the relationship between Assange and one of his early supporters, Daniel Domscheit-Berg (Inglorious Basterd's Daniel Bruhl), who begins to question the tactics Assange uses to gain his information.

Why Him: I've already received a comment saying that Cumberbatch is lead. I don't know if they've read the script or not–I haven't, but there are a couple reasons I decided to place him in supporting. The first being that Dreamworks (the studio releasing the film) has a synopsis that states the film is "through the eyes of Daniel Domscheit-Berg". The film is also based on a book that he wrote. Although Assange is the showcase role, it sounds like the real lead of the film is Domscheit-Berg. The other reason is: I like to be right. These predictions are for fun and me really trying to get as many correct as possible. If Cumberbatch gets a lead nomination, I can still say I predicted him (shut up–it still counts!) Also, I debated putting him in Lead, but I couldn't see him being chosen over the 5 I already picked. But, (already the new crush of the internet) Cumberbatch is very much the hot, new star and this role seems, in all likelihood, to be the breakout role that will take him to the next level of A-List dramatic actor. He's this year's Michael Fassbender (although, poor Fassy lost out on his nomination). In addition, he's also set to break out as a movie star with his under-wraps role in the sure-to-be-big Star Trek: Into Darkness. And supporting roles in August: Osage County and Twelve Years a Slave sure couldn't hurt. Whether it's in Lead or Supporting, Benedict Cumberbatch is gonna be on the lips of Oscar voters. Plus, it's just fun to say...

"Ever hear of Dita Von Teese? Yeah, I discovered her, too. Would I lie?"

Joaquin Phoenix Lowlife

The Role: The fourth collaboration between three time Oscar nominee, Joaquin Phoenix, and director James Gray (Two Lovers, We Own the Night) centers around a new immigrant to New York in the early 1900's (played by Marion Cotillard) who is tricked into a life of burlesque by Phoenix's character, Bruno Weiss. Jeremy Renner plays Phoenix's cousin, a magician that helps Cotillard break out of her situation.

Why Him: Despite calling awards "bullshit" in Interview magazine,  Phoenix still managed to land a nomination for last year's The Master. And the reason is pretty simple: he's an acting force of nature. His role in The Master was one of the most brilliant that I saw last year. It was so raw and intense that it made me uncomfortable to watch, but you couldn't look away. And shouldn't acting awards (which, really, yeah, are kinda bullshit. But, the best kind!!) be about the the performance, in the first place? Phoenix received a lot of praise for the last film he and Gray did together (Two Lovers). And the fact that he's playing a villainous role will really help him showcase some more of that intensity that he's known for. So, in spite of his best efforts, I think we can expect to see Phoenix reluctantly seated at the Dolby Theater next year.

Other Contenders: Will Forte Nebraska, James Franco Spring Breakers, Jonah Hill The Wolf of Wall Street, Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club, Mark Ruffalo Foxcatcher

A Year In Advance Oscar Predictions 2013: Best Actress

Boy, I did not do very well in this category last year. The only one I predicted that got nominated was Helen Hunt and they went and put her in Supporting. I need to stop predicting Keira Knightley. If they didn't nominate her for Anna Karenina–it's just not gonna happen for her. But, that was last year and this year brings some Aussies playing princess and La Streep in what one can safely assume will bring her 18th(!) Oscar nomination.

Best Actress

Nicole Kidman Grace of Monaco

Julia Roberts August: Osage County

Meryl Streep August: Osage County

Naomi Watts Diana

Kate Winslet Labor Day

Look into my eyes...I AM Grace Kelly

Nicole Kidman Grace of Monaco

The Role: Best Actress Oscar winner, Kidman, plays Best Actress Oscar winner, Grace Kelly. Rather than a biopic that spans the entire life of the movie star turned princess, the film focuses on the early 60's when Kelly was a new monarch to the principality and intervenes with her husband Prince Rainier (Tom Roth) and Charles de Gaulle of France regarding the tax laws of Monaco. The film is being directed by Olivier Dahan who directed Marion Cotillard to an Oscar win for La Vie en Rose.

Why Her: Sometimes I let my love for Nicole cloud my judgement regarding her Oscar chances. Last year, I predicted her for a movie that was not only not released, but wasn't even made in the first place. That's the other thing with Nicole, she commits and drops out of projects all the time. I could do an entire post about it (maybe I will...). But, this film is actually made! There's photographic evidence to prove it! And it's scheduled for a late 2013 release–the perfect time for Oscar. 

There was awhile in the mid 00's were everyone decided that they didn't like Nicole anymore (was it Bewitched or the botox?), but recent years have brought another nom for Rabbit Hole and an almost nom for last year's bat-shit crazy The Paperboy. I think it's safe to say, all is forgiven. I have the feeling that Kidman playing an actress as well-known and admired as Grace Kelly will be too perfect to resist.

Julia Roberts August: Osage County

The Role: Three-time Oscar nominee (and Best Actress winner), Roberts, plays the eldest daughter, Barbara, in the Weston family. It's based on the Tony and Pulitzer prize winning play of the same name. The play concerns a family in Oklahoma who's father goes missing. When the family comes together sparks fly as Barbara tries to keep everything together while dealing with her verbally abusive, pill-addicted mother (Streep). Although Streep has the more showy role, it's Robert's role that is the actual lead and heart of the story. 

Why Her: I go through phases of admiration for Roberts. Of course I love her in Pretty Woman and Erin Brockovich. She may not be a versatile performer, but no one brings a believability while bringing huge movie stardom the way she does. But, then I see her in dreck like Eat, Pray, Love and wonder what it is I like about her again. But, I really have confidence that she can pull this role off (true a more natural choice would have been Laura Linney or Amy Ryan) in  way that no one else could. Plus, going head-to-head with Greatest Actress in the History of the World, Streep, is a job only a movie star of her caliber can take on without being eaten alive.

Meryl Streep August: Osage County

The Role: Violet Weston, the acid-tongued matriarch of the family who has recently suffered from mouth cancer and is now forming an addiction to pills. She is extremely combative and critical of her family, especially oldest daughter Barbara (Roberts).

Why Her: Um, do I really need to fill this out? The woman has 17 nominations and 3 wins. She's the most nominated actor of all time and the closest is Kate Hepburn and Jack Nicholson at a distant 12 noms each. If Streep is in anything remotely Oscary–she's getting nominated. And this role was a huge awards magnet, winning the Best Actress Tony for actress Deanna Dunagan. 

"Biopic–Check. Beloved icon–Check. Oscar nom–Duh. Man, why didn't I do this sooner?"

Naomi Watts Diana

The Role: Playing the part of Diana: Princess of Wales, the film focuses on the last 2 years of Diana's life after her divorce from Prince Charles, her campaign to stop land mines,  her relationship and wish to marry Dr. Hasnat Khan (Lost's Naveen Andrew), and her death in a car accident with Dodi Fayed.

Why Her: The word most often used to describe Watts as an actress is: fearless. From her dual role in her breakthrough (and what should have been her first Oscar nomination) in David Lynch's Mulholland Drive to her Oscar nominated performances as suffering mothers in 21 Grams and lat year's The Impossible, Watts dives in full-force not afraid to expose herself emotionally or go to dark places. Even if the film itself doesn't work, I think the fact that Watts was fearless enough to take on such an iconic role as Diana will reward her with a nom. And she's the only one of my predicted 5 not to win, so perhaps this is the role that brings her gold...

Look, it was just cheaper to use my costumes from Little Children

Kate Winslet Labor Day

The Role: Oscar nominated director Jason Reitman (Juno, Up in the Air) directs 6-time Oscar nominated actress, Winslet, in her first cinematic lead role since her Oscar winning performance in The Reader back in 2008. The film stars Winslet as agoraphobic, depressed, divorced mother Adele in the 80's who after being talked into going out for a drive with her son, picks up a bloody man (Josh Brolin) looking for a ride (cause that sounds like a good idea). He turns out to be an escaped convict, but I'm sure a romance blossoms despite the impossible odds...

Why Her: Once considered the greatest actress of her generation, she got a case of the Annie Hathaway-hate game post Oscar win. The media that once celebrated her and demanded she have an Oscar suddenly felt like she was too needy and desperate for it. To avoid the media's hatred, she took herself out of the spotlight, appearing only in the HBO miniseries (and Emmy awarding winning role) Mildred Pierce and supporting roles in Carnage and Contagion over the past 5 years. But, I think enough time has passed and we've (well, certainly, I have) been ready for Kate to tackle another complex role in an adult drama. Pairing up with Reitman, who got great performances out of Ellen Page in Juno and Charlize Theron in Young Adult seems like a smart move as well. She's always been an actress that challenges herself and a nom here would be a way of welcoming back one of our best.

Other Contenders: Sandra Bullock Gravity, Marion Cotillard Lowlife, Julie Delpy Before Midnight, Jennifer Lawrence Serena, Amanda Seyfried Lovelace

A Year In Advance Oscar Predictions 2013: Best Actor

I'm back!!!! Hello, is anyone out there? I know, I had given up hope that I would get to blogging again as well. But, here I am! I'm gonna try to blog at least once a week, so please stay with me. Also, that post about Edward Scissorhands couldn't be the last thing I did on here...

By now, everyone is aware of how the Oscars went down this past Sunday. So here's a brief recap: Seth McFarlane brought in younger viewers...but at what cost, I ask you? Everyone hates Annie Hathaway still–as a person, not an actress–and she was upstaged by her dress's weird nipple darts. Christoph Waltz won his 2nd Best Supporting Actor Oscar for a lead role and kinda doing the same thing he did in Inglorious Bastards. J.Law fell on the way to get her Oscar and the world (and by world, I mean the internets)  has decided that they have a new best friend who can do no wrong. DDL won his 3rd Best Actor Oscar and was funny, y'all! Meanwhile, Meryl Streep presented it to him all the while wondering why it took 30 years for her to get her third and only 5 measly years for D-Day. Sexist. Argo is now the Driving Miss Daisy of our time, being the first film since that gem to win Best Picture without a Best Director Nomination. But, Affleck still won, so...bygones. Whew. But, I never wrote anything about this past Oscar season, so let's pretend like it never happened. Agreed? Good.

But I'm not here to talk about the films of 2012, that's so last year. That's right, it's time to look ahead to next year's Oscars with my annual Year in Advance Oscar Predictions for acting! You can read all about how well I did this past year here and here. Let's just say Daniel Day-Lewis and Annie were both there. Just don't pay attention to that Best Actress category...yikes. Let's get started! I'll do Lead Actor in this post and come back this week for Actress and the Supporting categories.

Best Actor

Bruce Dern Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor Twelve Years a Slave

Tom Hanks Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey Dallas Buyers Club

Bruce Dern Nebraska 

The Role: Oscar favorite director, Alexander Payne (Sideways, The Descendants) returns to his home state (I bet you can't guess what it is) in this father-son road trip film. Bruce Dern plays the distant, booze-soaked patriarch that journeys with his son (played by–wait for it–SNL's Will Forte! Did not see that one coming) from Montana to Nebraska to pick up the winnings of Publisher's Clearing House. Those giant checks are a bitch to mail. Along the way, they stop in the small town in Nebraska that Dern's character grew up in. And I don't want to spoil anything, but I'm guessing lessons are learned.

Why Him: Payne's past films have been showcases for Best Actor, picking up nominations for George Clooney, Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt), and Paul Giammati. The former Oscar nominee (Best Supporting Actor Coming Home) and father of Oscar nominee, Laura Dern, is one of those respected actors that have made a career in charactery, supporting parts. A nomination here in lead would be, in a way, an acknowledgement of his entire career which began in the early 60's. 

Are we sure this isn't a still from Revolutionary Road?

Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street 

The Role: DiCaprio and Marty Scorsese team up for the fifth time in this true-life story based on the memoir of Jordan Belfort, a New York stockbroker in the 90's who served jail time because he refused to cooperate in a huge securities fraud case involving corruption and involvement with the mob (well, it wouldn't by Scorsese without the mob).

Why Him: The three-time Oscar nominee has yet to win and has missed out on his past two bids with J. Edgar and Django Unchained. Leo is one of those actors that does weighty, Oscary roles that don't always payoff (see those 2 mentioned films. Then again, you can skip J.Edgar), but I always predict him to be nominated because a) he really wants it and b) he's actually good. One of these days he's actually gonna win. And this may be a good year for him if May's The Great Gatsby also turns out well. Then again, there's rumors that he'll go full frontal in the film and that there's lots of graphic sex scenes. Oscar tends to be weary of male's being sexualized (poor Michael Fassbender and Matthew McConaughey), so we'll just have to see how the reception is when the film comes out.

Chiwetel Ejiofor Twelve Years a Slave

The Role: The real-life story of Solomon Northup, a freed slave in New York in the early 1800's who was kidnapped and sold into slavery for, well, 12 years in Louisiana. His story was written as a memoir that became a best-seller at the time. Steve McQueen (Hunger, Shame) directs the film with a cast that includes Brad Pitt, Michael Fassbender, and everyone's favorite puppy-purse-carrying, youngest Best Actress nominee, Quvenzhane Wallis.

Why Him: And you thought Quvenzhane was hard to pronounce...it's Chew-It-Tell Edge-Oh-For. And the British star of stage and screen already has 3 Golden Globe nominations, won an Independent Spirit Award, and is an Officer of the Order of the British Empire for drama...so, yeah, he's got some acting chops. He may not be a name that people know, but I'm guessing that with this role, which seems tailor-made for Oscar, it could be his first shot at wider recognition and his first chance at a nomination.

Ready to board the HMS Oscar

Tom Hanks Captain Phillips

The Role: Oscar nominated director (and director of the last two Matt Damon-starring Bourne films), Paul Greengrass works with Tom Hanks as Captain Richard Phillips, the real-life story (I'm beginning to sense a theme. Oscar loves a true story) of the 2009 hijacking of an American cargo ship by Somali pirates. He offered himself as a hostage and was rescued by the Navy Seals.  

Why Him: The Academy used to love Tom Hanks. Hell, America loved Tom Hanks. And it's not that we don't love the two-time Best Actor Oscar winner any less. It's just that he hasn't really done much lately that reminds us why we love him. His last Oscar nomination was way back in 2000 for Castaway. But, Hanks playing a real-life hero, shot in the gritty style of Greengrass seems like exactly the type of thing that will welcome him back to the Oscars. Hanks is also playing Walt Disney this year in Saving Mr. Banks. Playing the most Oscar nominated person in history could do the trick as well, but I'm giving the edge to this film.

Guys, THIS is McConaughey. Who knew?

Matthew McConaughey Dallas Buyers Club

The Role: Loosely based on the (you guessed it) true story of Ron Woodroof, a womanizing, boozer, who contracts AIDS in the 1980's. He starts taking an alternative treatment not yet approved by the FDA and with the help of his doctor (played by Jennifer Garner) starts selling the treatments to other patients to give them a chance at a longer life.

Why Him: Alright, alright, alright...2012 marked everyone's favorite shirtless bongo player as more than just the male lead in every bad rom-com, but as the gifted, diverse actor we all thought he would be after A Time to Kill. With Killer Joe and his shoulda been nominated performance in Magic Mike, we began to see that he was capable of more. He just had to realize it for himself. And 2013, should be the year that he's rewarded with his first nomination. McConaughey lost over 30 pounds to play the dying man and if there's something Oscar loves more than a true-life story, it's a physical transformation that shows a dedication to the craft. Good notices in the Sundance film Mud and a supporting role in Wolf of Wall Street should only help in making 2013 the year of McConaughey: Serious Actor. 

Other Contenders: Christian Bale Out of the Furnace, Daniel Bruhl The Fifth Estate, Idris Elba Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Michael B. Jordan Fruitvale

Walking in a Winter Wonderland

Nothing compares to early Tim Burton films. You know, when Johnny Depp was charmingly eccentric and not just annoyingly weird. And the films seemed to come from a a singular mind that had a vision of a gothic-chic world we hadn't seen before. It's fitting that the first project that Burton worked on in his early days as a Disney animator was The Black Cauldron–a film criticized for being too dark for children–because he's been bringing that aesthetic edge to his projects ever since. If there's one film who's look is quintessentially Burton-esque, it has to be this week's Hit Me With Your Best Shot entry over at The Film Experience: Edward Scissorhands. 

I've had multiple viewings of the film over the 22 (!) years that it's been out, including one on the big screen at a Burton Retrospective in TriBeCa in conjunction with an exhibit they had on the art of The Corpse Bride. (I still think Beetlejuice has it beat in my total viewings, though. My sisters and I must have worn out that VHS tape.) So, I wasn't exactly expecting to find anything revolutionary for my viewing this time around. I also found myself asking a lot more questions about it than usual. Things I hadn't thought before, like: Why was a suburban sprawl built around a dilapidated house? Wouldn't the real estate market have just taken over that land years ago, bulldozed it, and built up more pastel-colored ranch-style houses? Also, what was this cookie-making inventor doing making a man anyway? What credentials does he have? But most importantly, why didn't he just give Edward regular hands to begin with? Who uses scissors as temporary training tools? What the hell was that gonna teach him? Having sharp objects in the place of hands is just asking for him to be ostracized. So, way to go.

But, that's just the cynical adult in me nitpicking. And it's so easy to fall into that mode nowadays. Which is why I was glad that my favorite scene from the film was still able to instill in me a sense of that childlike wonder I had when I was younger. 

The film begins with a little girl asking her grandmother where snow comes from. Which begins the bedtime story of Edward Scissorhands. Throughout the film, Kim (Winona Ryder–who, by the way, was my favorite actress as kid) hasn't exactly warmed up to the idea of Edward. But as the film unfolds, she slowly recognizes his kind soul and slowly begins to understand that her affections have changed to love. Just before her family's (unattended) Christmas party, something magical happens. As she looks out the window, she sees something that she has never seen in real life. Like a miracle, snow is gently falling in her warm-weathered home. It is wondrous. And as she walks outside, she realizes that Edward is creating it by carving an ice sculpture of an angel with his hands. The moment is just so joyous that she reaches out her arms and basks in the beauty. 

Edward has created this moment for her. A moment that she will always remember. Although their love is not to be, she will always remember him every time it snows. When she feels the snow on her skin later in life, she will feel his presence and the love she felt for him. "Sometimes you can still catch me dancing in it." 

A Pictorial Celebration in Honor of Cate Blanchett's Birthday