Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: Best Actress 2015

For being my favorite category (the past two Best Actress winners, Cate Blanchett and Julianne Moore, rank as some of my favorite actresses of all time), year after year, this is always my worst category in predicting. Unlike Best Actor, which is usually made up of big names in Best Picture contenders, Best Actress performance seem to be left out of the major categories far too often. Which makes trying to predict so far in advance more difficult for the lead actresses. Of the 5 contenders this past year, only one (Jones) was in a Best Picture nominated film and 3 out of the 5 (Cotillard, Moore, and Pike) were their film's sole nomination. And while it's great that the Academy is looking to diverse films to fill out this category, it does have a hint of prejudice about it - stories where women are at the center aren't seen as viable contenders for Screenplay, Picture, or Director. But like Blanchett said in her acceptance speech last year, movies with woman at the center are not a niche, people do want to see them. And as a self-identifying actressexual - boy, do I! The 5 women I've chosen as my year in advance predictions have all been nominated before and three of them have even won in this category, but they're all performances I'm eagerly anticipating. And even if they don't make Oscar's final five spots, with these women in the lead, they're sure to be fascinating.

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Best Actress

Cate Blanchett Carol

Jennifer Lawrence Joy

Julianne Moore Freeheld

Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn

Lily Tomlin Grandma

Cate Blanchett Carol

The Role: Blanchett plays the titular Carol. Set in 1950s New York City (but shot in Cincinnati, Ohio - go figure), Carol Aird is a wealthy Manhattan wife and mother trying to live the picture-perfect post-war life. She has had relationships in the past with women and she begins a romantic affair with a shopgirl (Rooney Mara). While divorcing her husband, Carol must decide if her relationship is worth losing custody of her young daughter...

Why She'll Be Nominated: Does all this sound familiar? Well, it should because I already predicted that Blanchett would be scoring her 7th career nomination for this performance...last year. I hesitated to include it last year because it hadn't started filming yet. Instead of trying to rush completion on it for the end of year 2014, the new plan seems to be to roll it out to film festivals this year before an eventual (awards season friendly) fall release. Cannes seems like the most likely debut for the film. With two wins already, Blanchett is definitely an Academy darling and the last time she worked with director Todd Haynes she scored a supporting nomination for playing a Bob Dylan-esque folk singer in I'm Not There. Blanchett has been compared to Meryl Streep often and it seems that if anyone can take on the Oscar Queen's title, it's her. She's already earning early raves for her villainous turn as Cinderella's stepmother in the Disney live-action film coming out in March. It seems very likely that the accolades will continue this year with this more Oscar-friendly performance.

Jennifer Lawrence Joy

The Role: The Best Actress winner teams up again with her Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle director David O. Russell starring as the real-life Joy Mangano, a Long Island single mother who hit it big with selling her inventions on QVC in the early '90s, particularly the Miracle Mop and the network's all-time best seller, Huggable Hangers.

Why She'll Be Nominated: Although I personally was not a fan of either of the films that Lawrence and Russell worked on previously, there's no denying that the Academy was crazy for them. Both films earned nominations for its stars in all four of the acting categories, including back to back nominations for Lawrence, making her the youngest actress to score three Oscar nominations. So it's safe to say that anything that pairs them together is definitely on the Academy's radar. At only 24, I'm not sure why Russell keeps casting Lawrence in these parts that she is clearly too young to play, but there's no denying her star power and goofy likability make her a favorite among critics and audiences. Thanks to the enormous success of The Hunger Games franchise, she's also a bonafide money maker. She's so popular that paparazzi are grabbing pictures of her every day on set for this film - a biopic about a woman and her mops. It seems pretty certain that she'll "mop the floor" with the other contenders to score a fourth nomination...(Are y'all prepared for more mop puns coming our way for the next awards season?)

Julianne Moore Freeheld

The Role: The newly crowned Best Actress winner (yay, Juli!) plays Laurel Hester, a New Jersey police officer. After being diagnosed with lung cancer, she takes on the Board of Chosen Freeholders in her town in New Jersey, fighting to have the right to leave her pension to her partner Stacie (Ellen Page). 

Why She'll Be Nominated: The true life story of Laurel and Stacie's struggle was already the subject of a 2007 documentary short film of the same name that won the Academy Award in that category. With the Oscar-winning material being brought to life with one of our finest actresses, it seems a reasonable assumption that Moore's portrayal is an Oscar contender. After 4 previous nominations without a win and no nominations since 2002 (despite work in The Kids Are All Right and A Single Man that seemed worthy of nominating), many had given up hope that Moore would ever be invited back by the Academy. That all changed on Sunday night when Moore won Best Actress for Still Alice. It seems that the win could actually help booster her profile with this film, reminding the Academy how long they had been overlooking her before and rewarding her with another nomination so soon after the win just to show that, yes, they neglected her too much in the past, but they wanna make it up to her. And her role in this film seems like it might be impossible to ignore.

Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn

The Role: Irish actress Ronan plays Eilis Lacey, a young Irish girl that leaves her home in Ireland to come to Brooklyn in the 1950s for a better chance at life. She falls in love with an Italian-American boy (Emory Cohen) even as another suitor back in her home country (Domhnall Gleeson) makes her decide where her heart lies.
   

Why She'll Be Nominated: The film, which already debuted at Sundance this past January, entered into a bidding war with the studios, eventually selling to Fox Searchlight for $9 million - the most for any film this year at the festival. The romantic melodrama earned wonderful reviews, almost all of which singled out Ronan's performance as the highlight of the film. A previous nominee in the supporting category for her work in Atonement (2007), Ronan also appeared in the recent Oscar winner The Grand Budapest Hotel, proving that even at her relatively young age, the Academy is well-versed in her work. Based on the novel by award-winning Irish author Colm Tóibín, adapted by Nick Hornby, and directed by Tony award nominated director John Crowley (his film work includes 2007's Boy A), the film might have flown under the radar if had not been for its reception in Sundance. But now that we are aware of Ronan's strong work in it, the Oscar buzz has an entire year to build. 

Lily Tomlin Grandma

The Role: Playing the grandma of the film's title, Tomlin is Elle Reid a feminist poet and lesbian that helps her granddaughter raise the funds necessary to have an abortion.

Why She'll Be Nominated: Lily Tomlin is just one award short of the elusive EGOT. For those of you not familiar (um, how did you get here then?!), it's winning all four of the major entertainment awards: Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony. The one award missing for her title? That would be the golden "O". Nominated only once before in Supporting Actress for her performance in Robert Altman's masterpiece Nashville, if she is nominated for her star turn in this character study, it will have been 40 years between nominations. Also shown at Sundance and judging from my friend Nathaniel at The Film Experience, it is certainly an Oscar-worthy performance from the legendary actress. And with her Netflix series alongside Jane Fonda also coming out this year, it could be a very good time to be a Lily Tomlin fan. I'd love to see her get nominated, especially if we get to see her reunited with Joy's David O. Russell at all the awards ceremonies. We all know how well the two of them get along... 

Other Possibilities: Angelina Jolie By the Sea, Carey Mulligan Suffragette, Zoe Saldana Nina, Meryl Streep Ricki and the Flash, Kate Winslet The Dressmaker 

Early Fall Predictions: Best Actress

Doesn't it seem like every year brings the same story about the Best Actress category? Mainly, the lack of major contenders and a category that almost every year seems to be deemed "weak". I'm sorry to say that after Cate Blanchett's impassioned speech about more leading roles for woman (they do make money! The world is round, people!), that it doesn't seem like the studios were paying attention. Well, compared to the many Best Actor hopefuls that get mentioned (and have a possibility of getting in), the Actresses don't ever seem to get the same attention. There's already been some great performances from some talented women this year, but they seem to be pretty much ignored as we head into Oscar movie season. And sadly I don't have any inspired choices of who will emerge as the final 5 nominees. In fact, my choices for who I will believe will make it in pretty much aligns with what everyone else seems to agree. Let's just hope we have some shake-ups as the season progresses otherwise it's gonna be a long, predictable couple of months.

Let's first start off with the two sure things. One a four time nominee that has never won before and the other a previous winner that hasn't had the most stellar career post-win.

In a just world, Julianne Moore would by all accounts already be a two-time winner (for Boogie Nights and Far From Heaven), but the Academy passed her over in favor of others all the previous times she was nominated. And she hasn't even received a nomination (despite some traction for her work in The Kids Are All Right and A Single Man) since her double nominations of 2002, showing signs that perhaps the Academy had cooled in their affection for her. But after winning the Best Actress prize at Cannes for her go-for-broke performance in the messy/whackadoo Maps to the Stars (which will now receive a Oscar-qualifying run, but is way too out-there for be a serious contender), the buzz on Moore began. Then, almost out of nowhere, she became the front-runner for not only a nomination, but to win the whole damn thing with her film that debuted at the Toronto Film Festival, Still Alice. Moore plays a linguistics professors that finds she's in the early stages of Alzheimer's. Word out of the festival was stellar and it may be too soon to get our hopes up of finally being able to say Academy Award winner Julianne Moore, but a nomination seems pretty secured.

Let the 2014 Reesurgence begin! After winning the Best Actress Oscar for 2005's Walk the Line, Reese Witherspoon's career, littered with well-meaning prestige films that didn't pan out and just plain awful romantic comedies (let us never speak of This Means War ever again), hasn't exactly inspired audiences, let alone the Academy. But starting with a small turn in last year's Mud, Witherspoon seems to be getting her footing again and with this fall's Wild (which she also produced), Witherspoon's journey to become a respected actress again seems to have come full circle. Playing Cheryl Strayed, the real-life woman that walked the Pacific Crest Trail (and wrote the book that the film is based on) to find herself. Witherspoon is said to give an amazing performance having already gained acclaim when the film showed in Toronto. And the film's director, Jean-Marc Vallée, certainly knows a thing or two about reviving the career of a floundering star, he directed last year's Dallas Buyers Club with Matthew McConaughey which won the actor the Best Actor Oscar and solidified the great McConaissance.

After reading the best-selling novel Gone Girl, I knew that whoever took on the part of Amy Dunne in the film adaptation would be sure to get some awards attention - the role is too juicy not to. Director David Fincher, after passing on bigger name stars, went with the relatively unknown Rosamund Pike, and, sure enough, Pike's star has risen and Oscar talk has begun. Pike, who has excelled in other films in supporting roles (her work as a not-as-dumb-as-she-seems blonde in An Education is a subtle delight), but I was lukewarm to her actual performance and to the film in general. But the film is already a huge hit and has inspired countless internet articles debating the notion of the "cool girl" and whether or not the film is misogynist. People are going to be talking about it for a long time and I think it'll be too big for the Academy not to include her in the Best Actress category.

After winning an acting award at Sundance for her performance in Like Crazy, big things were expected for new "It" girl, Felicity Jones. But critics and awards committees weren't exactly crazy for the film and it ended up being pretty much a non-starter. Jones has worked steadily since but hasn't exactly lit the world on fire. However with this fall's The Theory of Everything, opposite Best Actor hopeful Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking, Jones plays Hawking's first wife Jane, who met Hawking during university and stuck by him throughout his illness. The film is actually based on the memoir that Jane wrote, making her side of the story just as compelling as the well-known genius's and the Academy has always had a soft spot for the long-suffering wife role. Most of the early praise seems to be for Redmayne's physical transformation, but Jones seems like a safe bet for a nom alongside him for her steadfast performance.

The fifth spot seems to be a bit up in the air. There's two-time Oscar nominee Jessica Chastain for her work in the 80's set mob thriller A Most Violent Year. She could easily make the fifth spot as she also has the indie drama The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby which has admirers and the sure-to-be-big Nolan blockbuster Interstellar out at the same time to raise her profile. Her best shot seems to be AMVY, but votes may split over her other films. Another outside possibility is Oscar-winner Marion Cotillard in Belgium's Best Foreign Language Film entry Two Days, One Night, which she is (once again) brilliant in. But for some reason, the Academy seems reluctant to give the actress a second nomination and this film may be too small and too foreign to make an impact.

So I'm giving the fifth spot to an Academy favorite (she's already received 5 prior nominations without a win), with a film that people have already seemed to have lost faith in, sight unseen. But I still feel that Amy Adams in Tim Burton's Big Eyes, as the real-life painter of creepy/kitschy children with crazy huge peepers, could still make her way in. People are saying the film must not be very good since it's completed and hasn't been viewed at any film festivals, but with Harvey Weinstein behind it, I think he'll be pushing Adams big time in Dec. Adams is clearly liked by the Academy, so for now I'm still giving her the nom. Although a win doesn't seem as likely as it once did, since it seems that Julianne Moore may have come in to take over her overdue-for-a-win story arc...we shall see.

My Predictions

Amy Adams Big Eyes

Felicity Jones The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore Still Alice

Rosamund Pike Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon Wild

My Favorite Best Actress Performances (of what I've seen so far this year)

Marion Cotillard The Immigrant

Marion Cotillard Two Days, One Night

Scarlett Johansson Under the Skin

Gugu Mbatha-Raw Belle

Mia Wasikowska Tracks

St. Patty's Day Showdown: Battle of Hollywood's Redheads

Happy St. Patrick's day to you all! Hope everyone is drinking their weight in green beer and shamrock shakes. Last year we celebrated with a list of Cinema's 10 Best Green Looks. This year, I've decided to give the ladies of Ireland a turn. Well, honorary ladies of Ireland. Hollywood has given us many memorable redheads over the years and now it's your turn to vote for your favorites!

Battle of the English Rose

Greer Garson vs. Deborah Kerr

Greer Garson was one of the biggest box office draws in the 1940's. She received 7 Best Actress Oscar nominations and won for 1942's Mrs. Miniver. From 1941 to 1945, she received 5 nominations back-to-back, a feat matched only by Bette Davis. She is also credited for having the longest Oscar acceptance speech at over 5 minutes long.

Deborah Kerr is probably best known for her make-out session on the beach with Burt Lancaster in From Here to Eternity. She was nominated 6 times for the Best Actress Oscar but never won. She is tied with Thelma Ritter and Glenn Close for the dubious title of Most-Nominated Actress Without a Win. However, in 1994 she was awarded an Honorary Oscar.

poll by twiigs.com

Battle of the Classic Screen Beauty

Maureen O'Hara vs. Rita Hayworth

Maureen O'Hara is the only one on this list that is actually from Ireland. She came to Hollywood in the 30's, but is probably best known for her collaborations with director John Ford. The two filmed 5 films together including the Oscar winner for Best Picture, How Green Was My Valley and The Quite Man co-starring John Wayne. Her work in such family classics as 1961's The Parent Trap and 1947's Miracle on 34th Street has made her known to generations of children.

The Latina Rita Hayworth started off her career as a dancer with her original name of Rita (Margarita) Cansino. Tired of being cast in only "exotic" parts, she went through a Hollywood transformation that included getting rid of her widow's peak and coloring her hair red. She was suddenly a glamorous star and became the most popular pin-up during WWII. She was married to Orson Welles and later, briefly, was a real-life princess. The role that will be forever associated with her is the title role in Gilda. 

poll by twiigs.com

Battle of the Comediennes

Lucille Ball vs. Shirley MacLaine

Lucille Ball began her career in the 30's as a model and chorus girl on Broadway. When she moved to Hollywood she was given bit parts and became known for roles in B-films. It wasn't until the 50's with the new medium of television that she found her place (and success) as an actress. She displayed her natural gifts for comedy on her sitcom I Love Lucy and has since become a comedic legend. She was nominated 13 times for the Emmy in acting (tied only by Julia Louis-Dreyfuss) and won 4 times.

Shirley MacLaine (sister to movie star Warren Beatty) began her career as a singer and dancer on Broadway. She caught her big break when she was the understudy to the lead in The Pajama Game. When the lead broke her ankle, Shirley continued in the run of the show. A producer saw her on stage and signed her to a contract to Paramount Studios. She was nominated 5 times for the Best Actress Oscar and won for 1983's Terms of Endearment. In a career that has spanned 7 decades (and countless previous lives), she has most recently appeared on the popular show Downton Abbey.

poll by twiigs.com

Battle of the Modern Movie Star

Susan Sarandon vs. Julia Roberts

Susan Sarandon has come a long way since her early work in the cult classic The Rocky Horror Picture  Show. Who could have guessed that the girl in her underwear would be known for her fierce intelligence and activism in addition to her work as a dramatic actress. On her 5th Best Actress nomination, she finally won the Oscar for 1995's Dead Man Walking.

With her trademark smile and infectious laugh, Julia Roberts became one of the biggest (and highest paid) movie stars in Hollywood. Despite having already received an Oscar nomination for Steel Magnolias, it was her breakout role in the hit film Pretty Woman that launched her to fame–and a second Oscar nom. She won the Best Actress Oscar for her work as the titular Erin Brockovich in 2000. She and Sarandon appeared together in the film Stepmom.

poll by twiigs.com

Battle of the Auteur Screen Goddesses

Julianne Moore vs. Nicole Kidman

Julianne Moore may have started off her career in soap operas (winning a Daytime Emmy in the process), but when her career really took off was her work in independent films with directors Todd Haynes and Paul Thomas Anderson. Both have directed her to Oscar nominated performances in Anderson's Boogie Nights and Haynes's Far From Heaven. She has received 2 additional nominations and is one of 11 actors to receive 2 nominations in one year, but has yet to win. Her recent work as Sarah Palin brought another Emmy. And her experience growing up as a redhead has inspired a series of children's books she wrote called Freckleface Strawberry. 

Australian Nicole Kidman first came to the attention of America in the film Dead Calm and than as Tom Cruise's wife. Despite a breakout performance in Gus Van Sant's To Die For, she didn't come into her own as actress until her divorce from Cruise and the banner year of 2001's Moulin Rouge! and The Others. Since then she has been known for her bold choices and her wish to work with such artistic directors as Lars von Trier, Noah Baumbach, and John Cameron Mitchell. Nominated 3 times for the Best Actress Oscar, she won for her transformative portrayal of Virginia Woolf in The Hours. A film that co-starred Julianne Moore.

poll by twiigs.com

Battle of the New Oscar Darlings

Amy Adams vs. Jessica Chastain

Despite being a natural blonde, Amy Adams has said that her career really didn't take off until she colored her hair red. And with the combination of her Oscar-nominated turn in Junebug and her role as a Disney princess brought to life in the hit film, Enchanted, Adams was suddenly an A-List actress. With those roles it seemed she specialized in naive, innocent characters. But has since been able to show her range with her gritty work in The Fighter and The Master. Although nominated for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar 4 times now, she has not won. 

Even after training at the prestige Juilliard school, Jessica Chastain didn't break-out onto the scene until 2011 with her roles in 5 very different films, including her Oscar-nominated role in The Help. This past year she was nominated for her second consecutive Oscar for work in the film Zero Dark Thirty. And this past fall she made her Broadway debut in The Heiress. In just a few short years she has already become the go-to actress for strong, dramatic roles.

poll by twiigs.com

What's in a Name?

Back in the studio system days, when stars were packaged and sold to the public, the studio took it upon themselves to change an actor's name to give it more star quality. After all, who's gonna see the next film of Norma Jean Baker or Archibald Leach? But, we live in a different age now. Stars are just like us! US Weekly says so. They are just so real and use the names that they were born with...or do they?! Below are the names of several modern actors, see if you can guess which names are real and which are stage names. Answers after the jump.

1. Channing Tatum

2. Julianne Moore

3. Brad Pitt

4. Charlize Theron

5. Keanu Reeves

6. Sigourney Weaver

7. Joaquin Phoenix

8. Whoopi Goldberg

9. Leonardo DiCaprio

10. Winona Ryder

11. Viggo Mortensen

12. Natalie Portman

13. Michael Caine

14. Meg Ryan

15. Jonah Hill

16. Reese Witherspoon

17. Jude Law

18. Rooney Mara

19. Armie Hammer

20. Uma Thurman

Could Julie Win an Emmy? You Betcha

That's right Emmy. I'm comin' for ya!

When it was announced that Julianne Moore was cast as Sarah Pain in a new HBO movie, I wondered if she could pull it off. Today brought the first look of Julie in action. We'll have to see once the film, Game Change, airs in March how broad the portrayal is. But, she certainly looks the part more than I thought and seems to be channeling Palin pretty well. (Ed Harris, however, looks a little too virile to be McCain). 

Julie already has a Daytime Emmy for her work on As the World Turns, perhaps this role will bring her a Primetime (aka-real) Emmy. Nicole Kidman as Martha Gellhorn to Clive Owen's Hemingway will also appear in an HBO biopic next year. The Best Actress in a Miniseries or Made for TV Movie 2012 is certainly looking star studded already. Any other Oscar nominated actresses wanna get in a biopic for next year to join them? Perhaps Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher or Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe? Oh, wait...