Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: Best Actress 2015

For being my favorite category (the past two Best Actress winners, Cate Blanchett and Julianne Moore, rank as some of my favorite actresses of all time), year after year, this is always my worst category in predicting. Unlike Best Actor, which is usually made up of big names in Best Picture contenders, Best Actress performance seem to be left out of the major categories far too often. Which makes trying to predict so far in advance more difficult for the lead actresses. Of the 5 contenders this past year, only one (Jones) was in a Best Picture nominated film and 3 out of the 5 (Cotillard, Moore, and Pike) were their film's sole nomination. And while it's great that the Academy is looking to diverse films to fill out this category, it does have a hint of prejudice about it - stories where women are at the center aren't seen as viable contenders for Screenplay, Picture, or Director. But like Blanchett said in her acceptance speech last year, movies with woman at the center are not a niche, people do want to see them. And as a self-identifying actressexual - boy, do I! The 5 women I've chosen as my year in advance predictions have all been nominated before and three of them have even won in this category, but they're all performances I'm eagerly anticipating. And even if they don't make Oscar's final five spots, with these women in the lead, they're sure to be fascinating.

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Best Actress

Cate Blanchett Carol

Jennifer Lawrence Joy

Julianne Moore Freeheld

Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn

Lily Tomlin Grandma

Cate Blanchett Carol

The Role: Blanchett plays the titular Carol. Set in 1950s New York City (but shot in Cincinnati, Ohio - go figure), Carol Aird is a wealthy Manhattan wife and mother trying to live the picture-perfect post-war life. She has had relationships in the past with women and she begins a romantic affair with a shopgirl (Rooney Mara). While divorcing her husband, Carol must decide if her relationship is worth losing custody of her young daughter...

Why She'll Be Nominated: Does all this sound familiar? Well, it should because I already predicted that Blanchett would be scoring her 7th career nomination for this performance...last year. I hesitated to include it last year because it hadn't started filming yet. Instead of trying to rush completion on it for the end of year 2014, the new plan seems to be to roll it out to film festivals this year before an eventual (awards season friendly) fall release. Cannes seems like the most likely debut for the film. With two wins already, Blanchett is definitely an Academy darling and the last time she worked with director Todd Haynes she scored a supporting nomination for playing a Bob Dylan-esque folk singer in I'm Not There. Blanchett has been compared to Meryl Streep often and it seems that if anyone can take on the Oscar Queen's title, it's her. She's already earning early raves for her villainous turn as Cinderella's stepmother in the Disney live-action film coming out in March. It seems very likely that the accolades will continue this year with this more Oscar-friendly performance.

Jennifer Lawrence Joy

The Role: The Best Actress winner teams up again with her Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle director David O. Russell starring as the real-life Joy Mangano, a Long Island single mother who hit it big with selling her inventions on QVC in the early '90s, particularly the Miracle Mop and the network's all-time best seller, Huggable Hangers.

Why She'll Be Nominated: Although I personally was not a fan of either of the films that Lawrence and Russell worked on previously, there's no denying that the Academy was crazy for them. Both films earned nominations for its stars in all four of the acting categories, including back to back nominations for Lawrence, making her the youngest actress to score three Oscar nominations. So it's safe to say that anything that pairs them together is definitely on the Academy's radar. At only 24, I'm not sure why Russell keeps casting Lawrence in these parts that she is clearly too young to play, but there's no denying her star power and goofy likability make her a favorite among critics and audiences. Thanks to the enormous success of The Hunger Games franchise, she's also a bonafide money maker. She's so popular that paparazzi are grabbing pictures of her every day on set for this film - a biopic about a woman and her mops. It seems pretty certain that she'll "mop the floor" with the other contenders to score a fourth nomination...(Are y'all prepared for more mop puns coming our way for the next awards season?)

Julianne Moore Freeheld

The Role: The newly crowned Best Actress winner (yay, Juli!) plays Laurel Hester, a New Jersey police officer. After being diagnosed with lung cancer, she takes on the Board of Chosen Freeholders in her town in New Jersey, fighting to have the right to leave her pension to her partner Stacie (Ellen Page). 

Why She'll Be Nominated: The true life story of Laurel and Stacie's struggle was already the subject of a 2007 documentary short film of the same name that won the Academy Award in that category. With the Oscar-winning material being brought to life with one of our finest actresses, it seems a reasonable assumption that Moore's portrayal is an Oscar contender. After 4 previous nominations without a win and no nominations since 2002 (despite work in The Kids Are All Right and A Single Man that seemed worthy of nominating), many had given up hope that Moore would ever be invited back by the Academy. That all changed on Sunday night when Moore won Best Actress for Still Alice. It seems that the win could actually help booster her profile with this film, reminding the Academy how long they had been overlooking her before and rewarding her with another nomination so soon after the win just to show that, yes, they neglected her too much in the past, but they wanna make it up to her. And her role in this film seems like it might be impossible to ignore.

Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn

The Role: Irish actress Ronan plays Eilis Lacey, a young Irish girl that leaves her home in Ireland to come to Brooklyn in the 1950s for a better chance at life. She falls in love with an Italian-American boy (Emory Cohen) even as another suitor back in her home country (Domhnall Gleeson) makes her decide where her heart lies.
   

Why She'll Be Nominated: The film, which already debuted at Sundance this past January, entered into a bidding war with the studios, eventually selling to Fox Searchlight for $9 million - the most for any film this year at the festival. The romantic melodrama earned wonderful reviews, almost all of which singled out Ronan's performance as the highlight of the film. A previous nominee in the supporting category for her work in Atonement (2007), Ronan also appeared in the recent Oscar winner The Grand Budapest Hotel, proving that even at her relatively young age, the Academy is well-versed in her work. Based on the novel by award-winning Irish author Colm Tóibín, adapted by Nick Hornby, and directed by Tony award nominated director John Crowley (his film work includes 2007's Boy A), the film might have flown under the radar if had not been for its reception in Sundance. But now that we are aware of Ronan's strong work in it, the Oscar buzz has an entire year to build. 

Lily Tomlin Grandma

The Role: Playing the grandma of the film's title, Tomlin is Elle Reid a feminist poet and lesbian that helps her granddaughter raise the funds necessary to have an abortion.

Why She'll Be Nominated: Lily Tomlin is just one award short of the elusive EGOT. For those of you not familiar (um, how did you get here then?!), it's winning all four of the major entertainment awards: Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony. The one award missing for her title? That would be the golden "O". Nominated only once before in Supporting Actress for her performance in Robert Altman's masterpiece Nashville, if she is nominated for her star turn in this character study, it will have been 40 years between nominations. Also shown at Sundance and judging from my friend Nathaniel at The Film Experience, it is certainly an Oscar-worthy performance from the legendary actress. And with her Netflix series alongside Jane Fonda also coming out this year, it could be a very good time to be a Lily Tomlin fan. I'd love to see her get nominated, especially if we get to see her reunited with Joy's David O. Russell at all the awards ceremonies. We all know how well the two of them get along... 

Other Possibilities: Angelina Jolie By the Sea, Carey Mulligan Suffragette, Zoe Saldana Nina, Meryl Streep Ricki and the Flash, Kate Winslet The Dressmaker