How I Did With My Year in Advance Predictions and Final Oscar Predictions

Tonight are the 87th Academy Awards and before the ceremony I thought it would be best to look back on my predictions for acting nominations made after last year's ceremony to see how well of an Oscar psychic I was. And also predict who will be taking home gold tonight. Three out of the four acting categories seem to be wrapped up (Yay! Julianne Moore!), but it seems like Best Actor is still up for grabs for a couple of actors (well, except for Carell. That's just not gonna happen). So let's dive right in...

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"I've been smelling an Oscar nomination since the first day of filming..."

Best Actor

Year in Advance Predictions

Chadwick Boseman Get On Up

Steve Carell Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Jack O'Connell Unbroken

Joaquin Phoenix Inherent Vice

The Actual Nominees:

Steve Carell Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper American Sniper

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton Birdman

Eddie Redmayne The Theory of Everything

How Many Correctly Guessed: 2/5

Last year was my best year yet in this category, just a Tom Hanks shy (my prediction instead of Christian Bale) of having all 5 of the Best Actor nominees correctly chosen. This year I've gone down considerably, but sadly it was still my best category in predicting. There had been early buzz for Carell's work in Foxcatcher for literally years (as it was supposed to come out in 2013), but I'm actually surprised that he found his way in the final five as I was not impressed by his performance (or the movie as a whole). It seemed the film was losing momentum, but Oscar voters were more enamored than I thought. Cumberbatch was always going to get in because of where he is in his career at the moment, the nature of the role, and the Harvey Weinstein factor. I knew at the time that predicting Boseman and O'Connell both was a little younger than what the Academy usually goes for in this category, but the baitiness of both roles just seemed right up their alley. Boseman's performance as James Brown was electric, but the film just never really found an audience and the August release, instead of building momentum, just made it fade from memory as the months passed. O'Connell is still one of my favorite discoveries of this past year and I hope he finds Oscar attention in the coming years because he's very talented. Unbroken seemed like such a sure-thing on paper, but Angie just hasn't found her voice yet as a director (O'Connell made my own list of Best Actor performances this year...but for Starred Up). And Joaquin, coming off great work in The Master and her, seemed like an easy call to make. But Inherent Vice was...I don't wanna say a disaster, but it's pretty unwatchable for me. I'm surprised it managed the few Oscar nominations it did.

Keaton had been in the running for my year in advance predictions, but I decided to leave him off because I wasn't sure how successful González Iñárritu, usually so dour, would be with what everyone was billing as a comedy. The film ended up being more satirical and more darkly funny than I had initially imagined it to be. And now it appears that Keaton could actually win the whole thing...if it wasn't for Eddie Redmayne. Redmayne, who is relatively young for this category, does the kind of performance that wins Oscars with the biopic synopsis and his difficult physical transformation. Both men have been sharing the precursor prizes, with the slight edge going to Redmayne who won at SAG (the past 10 SAG winners in this category have all gone on to win Oscars) and there's also late-breaking dark horse Bradley Cooper, who received his third nomination in a row and whose film has been a huge success. But for whatever reason, I think they're going with Keaton, not just because he's great in the film, which plays on the actor's own career, but because he might not have a shot again. This seems like his moment.   

My Ranking of the Nominees: Keaton, Redmayne, Cumberbatch, Cooper, Carell
Who Will Win: Tough call (and the only one of the night in the acting categories), but I'm going with Keaton
Who Should Win: Keaton

"Dear Diary, I'm surprised as you that Fincher has become a go-to for Best Actress nominations..."

Best Actress

Year in Advance Predictions

Amy Adams Big Eyes

Cate Blanchett Carol

Rosamund Pike Gone Girl

Emma Stone Untitled Cameron Crowe Film

Meryl Streep Into the Woods

The Actual Nominees:

Marion Cotillard Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore Still Alice

Rosamund Pike Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon Wild

How Many Guessed Correctly: 1.5/5 (The half is for Streep...in the wrong category.)

My early predictions would have had three of the five actresses just nominated in this category making their return, but luckily none of them made their way back here...well, at least in Best Actress. Meryl is always gonna find her way into Oscar's heart. Don't get me wrong, I love to be right, but It's nice that the Academy isn't so predictable, always nominating the same actresses. Although, it did seem like Amy Adams could've still made it in here. (I was even still predicting her as the final fifth nominee that thankfully went to Cotillard.) But her film was not well received and I think most felt if she was gonna get a 6th nomination, it might as well be something she has a shot at winning for. Blanchett's film was always an iffy call as it hadn't started filming until April, but I thought it would be ready in time. It wasn't, but she just might make an appearance on my predictions for this year...And Meryl is always a default nominee. After last year when she went lead when she could've gone either way, I thought she would do that again. The film is truly an ensemble and could've gone either way, she would've gotten the nom either way (although, I personally don't think it ranks as some of her best work) and I'm sure Felicity Jones is grateful she went supporting. Emma Stone was another person that seemed ready for an Oscar nomination and I was right in predicting she would receive one this year...but in the wrong film and the wrong category. This film won't even be released until May of this year now (finally titled Aloha) and, judging from the leaked Sony emails, not one of Cameron Crowe's best. Rosamund Pike was the only actress I successfully predicted, but I think that anyone that played that part would've been nominated because of the character and Fincher's involvement. (I don't, however, think that she was all that successful with her take on it.)

But I couldn't possibly have predicted who would eventually win for Best Actress this year because her film wasn't even on the radar a year ago. It didn't even have a distributor until this fall. But here she is, our Best Actress front-runner, Julianne Moore in Still Alice. Although her performance doesn't rank among her best work for me and I think both Cotillard (who barely made it in, but gives the best performance in this category) and Witherspoon are much stronger in their films, I am very happy that Juli will finally be an Academy Award winner. And not to say that she's bad in the film - she's actually very good - I've just seen her give better performances and the film itself does her no favors. But it's definitely Juli's time, there is no other competition for the win this year. And I'm just happy that she's finally winning! 

My Rankings of the Nominees: Cotillard, Witherspoon, Moore, Pike, Jones
Who Will Win: Julianne Moore will finally be able to add "Academy Award Winner" before her name
Who Should Win: Cotillard, who gave two amazing performances this year

"Nice job, on predicting me. The only thing I'll throw at you are accolades..."

Best Supporting Actor

Year in Advance Predictions

Benicio Del Toro Inherent Vice

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

Channing Tatum Foxcatcher

Christopher Walken Jersey Boys

Christoph Waltz Big Eyes

The Actual Nominees:

Robert Duvall The Judge

Ethan Hawke Boyhood

Edward Norton Birdman

Mark Ruffalo Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

How Many Guessed Correctly: 1/5

I knew after Sundance that Simmons was making his way here, but I didn't suspect that his road to victory would be so easy. The only actor that I successfully predicted, Simmons has dominated every Best Supporting Actor category this year coasting to an Oscar win tonight. The other four men that found their way in this category along Simmons have all been nominated here before, but Simmons is assured the win. I say it every year, but this category is always the hardest to predict a year in advance. And as the same 5 men kept being nominated over and over again this awards season, it seemed that no one seemed all that interested in it to begin with. I knew I should have gone with Ruffalo as the Supporting nominee from Foxcatcher since Tatum's category placement was so up in the air, but it just never felt right to put him in over Chan (who gives my favorite performance in the film). I should probably stop predicting Christopher Walken, it never seems to pan out. But his surprise nom from Catch Me If You Can makes him a default for me in predicting this category. And he was arguably the best part of a terrible movie. (God, Jersey Boys was just bad.) Benicio Del Toro is another one like Walken that I always want to include because I think he's an amazing actor, but his film was polarizing and his part in it was way too small to make an impact. If anyone was getting a nomination it would've been Josh Brolin, who obviously didn't. Two-time winner in this category, Christoph Waltz, paired with Amy Adams and Tim Burton seemed like a safe bet, but there was category confusion with his film, which was pretty much a non-starter (outside of Adams' outside chances) to begin with. 

My Rankings of the Nominees: Norton, Hawke, Ruffalo, Simmons, Duvall
Who Will Win: It's been Simmons all season
Who Should Win: Norton

"Don't you judge me. I've been playing your mother for 12 years and have a guaranteed Oscar - I'm celebrating."

Best Supporting Actress

Year in Advance Predictions

Emily Blunt Into the Woods

Viola Davis Get On Up

Marcia Gay Harden Magic in the Moonlight

Anna Kendrick Into the Woods

Rooney Mara Carol

The Actual Nominees:

Patricia Arquette Boyhood

Laura Dern Wild

Keira Knightley The Imitation Game

Emma Stone Birdman

Meryl Streep Into the Woods

How Many Guessed Correctly: 0/5 (whomp, whomp...)

So what happened here? I didn't get a single nomination correctly predicted. I always give early predictions to Keira Knightley (I did previously for A Dangerous Method and Anna Karenina) and it never works out, I debated with including her in my year in advance predictions for Imitation Game but figured my love for her as an actress just wasn't the same as the Academy's. I guess they chose this year to finally prove me wrong...Mara, a former nominee,  might've made it, if her film had actually come out this year. Into the Woods just wasn't as good as I wished it would be (which had no impact on Streep - it never does), but no one seemed to notice either Blunt (who campaigned in lead) nor Kendrick from the film. I actually prefer both over Streep in this, but am perfectly fine in not successfully predicting their nominations as neither were good enough to warrant nods. And poor Viola Davis and Marcia Gay, both exceptional actresses in thankless cameo roles. Davis fares a little better, nailing the one big scene she's in, and might've been more of a contender if the film had been more successful. But I just watched Magic in the Moonlight a couple weeks ago and can barely remember that Marcia Gay was even in it.

Of course, none of the actresses I predicted a year ago nor the ones that actually made it in the category stand a chance for the win against Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. Like Simmons and Moore, she was won almost every precursor award and hopefully will have memorized her speech for this evening. It took a little longer for people to catch-up with Hawke as a nominee, but almost since it was released this summer, Arquette's performance in Boyhood has been praised as one of the film's best elements - especially her speech when Mason goes off to college. It's a long way to come for an actress that made her debut in Nightmare on Elm Street 3 in 1987, but as her decade plus performance in Boyhood showed, Arquette excels at the long game.

My Rankings of the Nominees: Arquette, Dern, Stone, Knightley, Streep
Who Will Win: Arquette's 12 year performance that's the heart of Boyhood
Who Should Win: Of these nominees, Arquette. But I'm honestly not that excited about any of them

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Make sure to come back all this week as I make my Year in Advance Predictions for 2015!

Final Supporting Predictions and a Plea for Pine and Swinton

It seems that both the supporting categories have been wrapped up with a frontrunner. In each, they are both so far ahead that the other actors that join them for nominations tomorrow morning will just be there as placeholders. And after both of them won the Golden Globe this past weekend (and every critics award there is), the inevitable march to Oscar victory for J.K. Simmons as a short-fused jazz instructor in Whiplash and Patricia Arquette as a single mother of two in Boyhood is all but assured. It helps that both are well respected among their peers, both have been acting for decades, and more importantly, both star in films that everyone seems to love (or at least greatly admire) that have had the luxury of having the time to actually being seen. Boyhood was the talk of the summer with it's once-in-a-lifetime, 12-year shoot and it only built momentum as the Oscar season officially kicked off. And Whiplash has had almost the entire year to build, having premiered at Sundance in January and played at numerous film festivals before opening in October to ecstatic audiences.

The other four men that will be joining Simmons in the Best Supporting Actor category are almost as assured nominations as Simmons is his eventual win. Already having joined him at the Golden Globes and SAG, they are: Edward Norton as a trouble-making, narcissistic actor (type-casting...) in Birdman, Mark Ruffalo as the only sane person in Foxcatcher (he really does seem to be getting nominated over his co-stars for the simple fact that he's the voice of reason in an irritating film), Ethan Hawke as the father in Boyhood (most of the early Oscar buzz was on Arquette as she has a more substantial role and great dramatic speeches, but as time went on, it seemed people took notice of Hawke's work as well), and a default nomination for Robert Duvall in the critically-panned The Judge, an inevitability that no one seems happy about. 

There are always surprises on nomination morning and this is the biggest category that could use some shaking up. But it seems that no one has built enough support to overtake Duvall. There are rumblings of Tom Wilkinson as LBJ in Selma, but the negative campaigning has relied solely on his characters inaccuracies and I fear he will suffer. Tyler Perry in Gone Girl, Miyavi in Unbroken, and Riz Ahmed in Nightcrawler all briefly seemed in the running at some point, but haven't really been mentioned since. For me, the one performance that should take the fifth spot is not only the best performance in a talented ensemble, but one of the year's most surprising, playful, and, well, charming... 

FYC: Chris Pine in Into the Woods as Best Supporting Actor

In a story populated by a diva-transforming witch, a klutzy Cinderella, and a sarcastic Little Red Riding Hood, the role of Cinderella's Prince on stage has never really been a stand-out. True, he has the comical "Agony" along with its reprise, but the character can't compete with the more fully-formed female characters. So in a film version that stars one of the greatest actresses in the world taking on the witchy role and an Oscar nominated new star of movie musicals taking on everyone's favorite ball-going, slipper-forgetter, it seemed that the women would once again dominate the story. So it comes as a pleasant surprise that Pine, whose previous work in a Sci-Fi franchise and mostly forgettable romcoms and action films hadn't really prepared us for his remarkable ease wih comedy, emerges as the film's best performance. In this transfer to the big screen, a lot of the humor of the stage show hasn't been maintained. (Lines that are normally guaranteed laughs seem to fall with a thud.) Luckily Pine's pompous princely airhead is the film's shining source of playfulness and the actor has a ball playing the chauvinist womanizer. The Prince might not be the heart of the story or really all that deep, but Pine's cartoonish take on the role is a welcome delight...(Click here to read more about Pine and Into the Woods from my "Meet the Contenders" series at The Film Experience)

Final Best Supporting Actor Predictions

Robert Duvall The Judge

Ethan Hawke Boyhood

Edward Norton Birdman

Mark Ruffalo Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

My Favorite Best Supporting Actor Performances

Ben Mendelsohn Starred Up

Alfred Molina Love is Strange

Bill Nighy Pride

Edward Norton Birdman

Chris Pine Into the Woods

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Already while composing this post, I have changed my final predictions in Supporting Actress twice. So needless to say, this category is still very much up for grabs. The two actresses almost guaranteed to join Arquette are both from films that are sure to score Best Picture nominations, Emma Stone as the daughter of Michael Keaton's Riggan in Birdman and Keira Knightley in pretty much the supportive wife role in The Imitation Game, even if it's only really a supportive beard role. (I've predicted Knightley in previous years for her work in Anna Karenina and A Dangerous Method, but neither amounted to anything. I'm pleased that she'll get another nomination, but her role is thankless here and she was much better in her other two films this year, Laggies and Begin Again.)

The other two spots will most likely go with some combination of three women: Jessica Chastain as a gangster's daughter turned revengeful housewife in A Most Violent Year, Oscar perennial Meryl Streep as a singing witch in Into the Woods, and the surprise BAFTA nominee (and excellent) Rene Russo in Nightcrawler. I would personally love to see Russo make the final five, but I find it hard to believe the Academy will choose her over two of their favorite actresses. At this point it seems silly to ever bet against Streep even if her work hardly stands against some of her best in Woods. And Chastain has already received two previous nominations in the past and had another productive year with roles in four very different movies. A nomination would surely be to honor her body of work this year (just like her breakout year in 2011). So I've ultimately gone safe with predicting Streep and Chastain scoring their 19th and 3rd nominations, respectively.

However, if the Academy is looking for an out-there choice for Best Supporting Actress this year, that is anything but safe, there was no more wonderfully bonkers, go-for-broke performance quite like Tilda Swinton as Minister Mason, the dictator of a dystopian train filled with earth's remaining humanity in Bong Joon-ho's Snowpiercer.

FYC: Tilda Swinton in Snowpiercer as Best Supporting Actress

It's a common joke that Tilda Swinton is actually an alien living among us (something that the actress actually loves to play up), since her presence and talent seem otherworldly. So it's a little disappointing that the only time she has been recognized by the Academy was in this category for 2007's Michael Clayton, playing a very normal, if only a little cunning, corporate lawyer in a very adult drama. After all, this was an actress that has slept in a glass box in museums all over the world, started her acting career as the muse to avant garde artist/director Derek Jarman, and first came to prominence for playing a character that effortlessly shifted between genders and time periods. Luckily, the actress showed up to accept the award wearing what amounted to a fancy, designer garbage bag with her decades-younger lover on her arm, proving that not even an institution like the Academy can alter an off-kilter original like Swinton.

So it was a giddy delight to watch Swinton fully embracing her inner eccentric with one of the most bizarre characters in her filmography (or in recent cinematic memory) in this summer's Snowpiercer.  In a role originally written for a man, Swinton is virtually unrecognizable with gnarled teeth jutting out and coke bottle glasses engulfing her face. In creating the look and feel of the character, at one point she was asked to tone it down by directer Joon-ho when she asked if she could have a pig nose for Mason. Described by Swinton as a combination of Margaret Thatcher, Colonel Gaddafi, and Hitler, everything about her work in the film is so different and absurd that it threatens to derail the entire picture at times. But through her crazy commitment, it miraculously never does, bringing a stylized jolt of energy and uniqueness that could not have been created by anyone else - human or alien.

Final Best Supporting Actress Predictions

Patricia Arquette Boyhood

Jessica Chastain A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley The Imitation Game

Emma Stone Birdman

Meryl Streep Into the Woods

My Favorite Best Supporting Actress Performances

Minnie Driver Beyond the Lights

Rene Russo Nightcrawler

Tilda Swinton Snowpiercer

Uma Thurman Nymphomaniac 

Marisa Tomei Love is Strange

Final Best Actress Predictions and a Plea for Cotillard

At the Golden Globes on Sunday, the amazing and Oscar-less Julianne Moore picked up what is sure to be one of many awards on her way to the big prize on Feb 22 for her performance as a professor with early onset Alzheimer's disease in Still Alice. I know a lot of us that worship at the alter of Julie have been eagerly awaiting the day when the actress can call herself an Oscar winner and it's looking more and more likely that this is actually the time. And while I think she does solid work in a pretty forgettable film, I can hardly be upset at the Academy if they finally decide to give her the big prize. (But please forgive me if I imagine it's actually for Safe, Far From Heaven, Boogie Nights...)

And predicting three out of the four other nominees that will join her with a nomination isn't too hard to see either, as they have all joined Moore at almost every juncture as well thus far. Rosamund Pike as disappearing "cool girl" Amy Dunne in Gone Girl, Reese Witherspoon as Cheryl Strayed, the real-life woman that walked the Pacific Crest Trail solo in Wild, and Felicity Jones as the ever-suffering, ever-supportive wife of Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. If any of those four don't hear their name called on Thursday, it would be a shock (which this category could definitely need). And while I'd love to say that Marion Cotillard will easily take that fifth spot for her understated work in Two Days, One Night, it's not looking very likely. Early in the season people were gunning for a return of two-time winner Hilary Swank in The Horsemen, but those dreams dissolved as soon as the film was met with barely a mention. So the fifth spot comes down to two women. Both likable actresses that have each found favor with awards bodies this season. But while most are predicting a Jennifer Aniston nom for the little-seen Cake, thanks to a surge in campaigning and public appearances, for some reason I get a nagging feeling that it's gonna be the other Golden Globe Best Actress winner from Sunday, Amy Adams in Big Eyes. The Academy really likes her, having nominated her 5 times already (not all of them deserved...), and with her recent win and a nom from BAFTA, it just makes me feel she has the best chance still...

It seemed that every year there is the same story about not a lot of choices for Best Actress, but then the same women keep showing up again and again when there are plenty of interesting, outside-of-the-box choices to fill the category. This year the most deserving nominee not only gave one amazing performance getting Oscar buzz (see above), but she gave an even greater one as a Polish woman that comes to America in the early 1920s searching for the American dream...

FYC: Marion Cotillard in The Immigrant as Best Actress

Marion Cotillard has the kind of face, luminously lit from within and boundlessly expressive, that was made for the big screen. It's a timeless face that was made to read ever subtle emotion and  thought as it is projected larger-than-life in a darkened theatre, evoking the work of silent movie stars and classic Hollywood. And in many ways Cotillard's work in James Gray's The Immigrant, playing a Eastern European woman named Ewa Cybulska that escapes the turmoil in her country for a better life in the States, only to find herself caught in a world of poverty and prostitution, is hardly an unfamiliar character. There have been variations on this fallen woman almost as long as the profession itself has been around. But to expect something revelatory in the storytelling or in Ewa herself is to almost miss the point completely. The Immigrant and Cotillard's performance are an homage to classic melodrama. Unapologetically old fashioned, embracing a melancholy mood and romantically-tinged feeling, Cotillard harkens back to the work of such actresses as Ingrid Bergman or Maria Falconetti, and in the celebration of those past greats becomes a revelation herself.

From the moment we see the French Oscar winner, bathed in golden hues at the Great Hall of Ellis Island, alternating between speaking Polish and heavily-accented English, proving that not only is the role emotionally demanding, but technically challenging as well. (Cotillard has said she had only two months in order to learn the new language for the film.) She is at once open and inviting, her warmth drawing the audience in to her story, but at the same time, cautiously guarded. Ewa is not one to wear her emotions on her sleeve, determined to survive and unwavering in her love of her sister. But while Cotillard never gives away Ewa's true feelings to those around her, it is achingly felt by the audience through the slightest of gestures - a fleeting glimpse in her downcast eye or the slight turn of her head. And in moments where she lets her emotional walls break down - like when she is confronted by Bruno (Joaquin Phoenix), the lowlife that has kept her alive through her own degradation, for stealing from a fellow girl or when her Catholic guilt overwhelms her in the confessional booth - Cotillard's restraint dissolves, but without losing control of the character, she indulges in a cathartic release, gently letting the melodrama wash over her radiant face.

Over the years, to describe something as melodramatic has taken on a negative connotation, synonymous with over-indulgent emoting, but Cotillard in The Immigrant proves that you needn't wallow in over-the-top histrionics to stir up the same impassioned sensations. Her performance as Ewa is stirring, insightful, and simply lovely. For an institute like the Academy, which has honored the work of great actresses for the past 87 years, perhaps acknowledging the work of the past by honoring Cotillard with a nomination for her work here, an ode to those bygone icons, would be a way of bridging the storied history with a bright future.  

The Immigrant is available now for streaming on Netflix.

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Final Best Actress Predictions

Amy Adams Big Eyes

Felicity Jones The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore Still Alice

Rosamund Pike Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon Wild

My Favorite Best Actress Performances

Marion Cotillard The Immigrant

Marion Cotillard Two Days, One Night

Essie Davis The Babadook

Scarlett Johansson Under the Skin

Gugu Mbatha-Raw Belle

Final Best Actor Predictions and a Plea for Fiennes

On Thursday, January 15th, the nominations for the 87th Annual Academy Awards will be announced and if last night's Golden Globes are any indication, it looks like the Best Actor win this year comes down to two performances: Eddie Redmayne's physically transformative work as Stephen Hawking in the Oscar-bait biopic The Theory of Everything and the comeback of 80s movie star Michael Keaton as Riggan Thomson, a former superhero looking for an artistic rebirth in Birdman. I think the slight edge goes to Keaton, in a film more generally liked overall, and whose teary acceptance speech last night left many moved. The other three rounding out the category will undoubtably include Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game and Jake Gyllenhaal, who at one point seemed like a longshot, but after recognition from SAG, the Golden Globes, and BAFTA seems pretty secure with a nom. The last spot, once reserved for Steve Carell's dramatic work in Foxcatcher seems to have lost steam with a chilly reception for the film (I was not a fan). So given the love the Academy has for biopics, and how great the film actually is, I predict the 5th spot goes to David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King, Jr. in Selma. A moving performance that brought some humanity to the revered icon.

Every year, there are great performances that just never mange to make it in the final five. And I can't always say that I ever really agree with the opinion of the Academy (actually, more times than not, we aren't in agreement. Previously, the week before nominations are announced, I've always selected a favorite performance of mine in each of the acting categories and made an impassioned plea that somehow they are honored with a nomination. (Check out previous years here and here.) I'm continuing it this year with my Best Actor pick, Ralph Fiennes in Wes Anderson's The Grand Budapest Hotel.

FYC: Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel as Best Actor

Classically trained, British Actor Ralph Fiennes has a reputation for being, well, intense. Perhaps it was due to the film that first brought him recognition and his first Oscar nomination (and what should've been a win), brilliantly playing a sadistic Nazi officer in Steven Spielberg's Best Picture winner Schindler's List (1993). Even when he became a romantic leading man, like in his other Oscar-nominated performance in another Best Picture winner The English Patient (1996), Fiennes still brought a smoldering intensity to his role. His love for Kristin Scott Thomas' Katharine almost more possessive and all-consuming than your regular affair. It doesn't help that he spends the majority of the film as a burn victim. From playing the noseless embodiment of pure evil as Harry Potter's Voldemort to a violent, expletive-spouting killer in the dark comedy, In Bruges, it's safe to say that a light-hearted Fiennes is not something we're accustomed to seeing.

Which is why his turn as Monsieur Gustave H. the concierge of the prestigious titular hotel at the center of Wes Anderson's colorfully detailed caper seems like such a departure for the actor and a wondrous revelation. As the suave, heavily-perfumed proprietor, Gustave has a tendency to be a little hands-on with the older, female clientele and Fiennes playing off his clipped, upper-crust persona relishes the opportunity to subvert his image. His Gustave H. is a bit of a cad and pretty much a snob, but Fiennes makes him endearingly so. Much has been said about how Anderson's films are perfectly calibrated and meticulously crafted, and Fiennes' comedic timing is just as precise - deadpan, droll, and there's nothing quite like hearing Fiennes deftly dropping a well-placed f-bomb to awaken a naughty comedic sensibility titillating in its execution.   

The Academy has a tendency to overlook performances as effortlessly enjoyable as this, preferring their actors to suffer for their art. But after years of watching Ralph Fiennes suffering to great effect, it would be wonderful if his foray into comedy was also able to be recognized by the Academy. And in a year of intense performances from other actors in biopics or disabilities, it only seems right that perhaps the Academy should lighten up a bit. After all, one of our most intense actors did this year and it couldn't have been better.

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Final Best Actor Predictions

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Jake Gyllenhaal Nightcrawler

Michael Keaton Birdman

David Oyelowo Selma

Eddie Redmayne The Theory of Everything

My Favorite Best Actor Performances

Ralph Fiennes The Grand Budapest Hotel

Jake Gyllenhaal Nightcrawler

Tom Hardy Locke

John Lithgow Love Is Strange

Jack O'Connell Starred Up

Have You Met the Oscar Contenders?

Over at The Film Experience, I just finished up a weekly series I've been doing since October called "Meet the Contenders". Each weekend from a newly released film, I selected an actor looking to score their first Oscar nomination and highlighted their performance. Not all of them will have a legitimate shot at even being in the running, but I really wanted to shine the light on certain actors or bring certain actors doing great work into the conversation. So, head on over and read about them all before nominations are announced on Thursday morning!

Meet the Contenders

Best Actor

Channing Tatum as Mark Schultz in Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch as Alan Turing in The Imitation Game

Oscar Isaac as Abel Morales in A Most Violent Year

David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King, Jr. in Selma

Best Actress

Rosamund Pike as Amy Dunne in Gone Girl

Felicity Jones as Jane Hawking in The Theory of Everything

Best Supporting Actor

J.K. Simmons as Fletcher in Whiplash

Sam Rockwell as Craig in Laggies

Chris Pine as Cinderella's Prince in Into the Woods

Best Supporting Actress

Emma Stone as Sam Thomson in Birdman

Rene Russo as Nina Romina in Nightcrawler

Kristen Stewart as Lydia Howland in Still Alice

Katherine Waterston as Shasta Fey Hepworth in Inherent Vice

Fall Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

While Best Supporting Actor still remains a mystery past Simmons and Norton (having now seen Foxcatcher, I'm not so certain of Ruffalo's place among the final five. But he could still get in due to a lack of competition), Best Supporting Actress is definitely starting to take shape a little more firmly. And unlike Best Actress which seems to also have fewer viable options, this category has about 8 actresses that could all conceivably find themselves with nominations. It has always been a category to welcome newer, younger actresses (see last year's Lupita Nyong'o) alongside more seasoned actresses and this year's contenders are no different. There are some actresses looking for their first nominations and it wouldn't be the Oscars without Meryl Streep looking for a nom...

But the biggest breakout story of the year may just be an actress that has already been working for more than 25 years and in a film that was 11 years in the making. Most of the praise for Linklater's decade-spanning film has focused on Patricia Arquette's nurturing and grounded performance as Olivia, the mother of two children. The film may be called Boyhood but it's as just much about her own growth and maturity from a young, single mother trying to raise children while finishing her degree, to become a woman that has lived through hard times (her choice in men is a little questionable) and come out wiser for it all. It's even more fascinating watching Arquette age onscreen as we begin to see the progression of an actress coming into her own as a woman. And her speech towards the end of the film is perhaps the film's most poignant moment. There had been debate early in the summer about which category to place her in, but in Supporting she is guaranteed a nomination and even a possible win.

That Jessica Chastain is mentioned again for Oscar consideration is no surprise, she's been nominated twice before (Best Supporting Actress for 2011's The Help and Best Actress for 2012's Zero Dark Thirty). Nor is it a surprise that the actress will once again be competing with herself for a nomination from multiple performances in the same year. Her breakthrough year in 2011 consisted of 5 different films (I still say her best work that year was in Take Shelter) and this year, again, she has work in 4 different films to contend, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, Miss Julie (which is receiving a week-qualifying run), Interstellar, and the film that is most likely to bring about a nomination, A Most Violent Year. There's been controversy about the fact that Chastain has been prohibited from campaigning for J.C. Chandor's 80s-set film until December, due to her contract for Nolan's Interstellar, but it is really the only performance that has an actual chance to bring her another nomination and the publicity just may help her in scoring the nomination for Chandor's film. The Academy seems to be a fan or her work. It seems like a safe bet to see her name among the 5 nominees.

Even though Keira Knightley has been nominated once before for an Oscar (Best Actress for 2005's Pride and Prejudice), I was beginning to think the Academy wasn't quite as enamored with her work as I thought, after passing over her Oscar-worthy performances in A Dangerous Method and Anna Karenina. But it seems that she may once again be in their favor again this year for her work in The Imitation Game. Knightley is having a fantastic year as well with her amazing work in the musical Begin Again (which should hopefully bring her a Golden Globe nomination) and her strong comedic performance in the indie comedy Laggies. Her work in both will be a strong case to bring her one of those nominations that represents a good year for an actor. And the Oscar-bait, period-set, biopic about the man that cracked the Enigma code to defeat the Germans in WWII, seems like just the sort of film the Academy gravitates toward. It seems like a reasonable assumption that Knightley, as the only woman in the film apart of the code breaking team, will finally score her second nomination this year.

Since her Golden Globe-nominated breakout in 2010's Easy A, Emma Stone has been a big, young star. The Academy, always quick to acknowledge stars of the moment, seems to recognize when it's someone's "time" and right now seems right for Stone for her work in Birdman, a film that has the potential to score multiple nominations. In my Year In Advance predictions, I assumed that a nomination would be coming her way this year. I just got the category and film wrong. Her work in Birdman is strong (I've previously written about it over at The Film Experience) and her first nomination seems like a done deal.

There are a couple of actresses looking to fill that final 5th spot. Laura Dern hasn't received a nomination since her Best Actress nomination for Rambling Rose over 20 years ago and she's a strong competitor for her role in Wild. And her appearance in the successful The Fault in Our Stars this summer could also booster her visibility. The late-breaking Martin Luther King, Jr film Selma just showed this past week at the AFI Festival and its performance from Carmen Ejogo as Coretta Scott King could be a threat to break into the race. But I think the last nomination will come from a film that still hasn't been seen but has had Oscar buzz surrounding it before cameras even starting rolling, the film adaptation of Stephen Sondheim's fairy tale musical Into the Woods. Oscar-nominee Anna Kendrick as Cinderella (in an actual supporting role) could find her way here, but you can never bet against Oscar's favorite actress Meryl Streep. In what would be her 19th nomination, Streep is a reliable mainstay and her role as the Witch (which at one point was considered lead, but moved to supporting), previously played by Bernadette Peters, Vanessa Williams, and Donna Murphy on stage, has always been a favorite from the show. To not include Streep among the eventual Oscar nominees, even sit unseen, seems like a mistake.  

My Predictions

Patricia Arquette Boyhood

Jessica Chastain A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley The Imitation Game

Emma Stone Birdman

Meryl Streep Into the Woods

My Favorite Best Supporting Actress Performances (I've what I've seen so far)

Julianne Moore Maps to the Stars

Rene Russo Nightcrawler

Tilda Swinton Snowpiercer

Uma Thurman Nymphomaniac Vol I

Marisa Tomei Love Is Strange

Early Fall Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

With only two more months to go before the end of the year and only a handful of films still to be screened, the Best Supporting Actor category is still very much anyone's game. But as exciting as that seems, in theory, I found myself struggling to even fill out my own picks of favorite performances from this year. Certainly there must be some great performance that I'm overlooking. But for now, what people have decided as our options for the 5 slots aren't really inspiring much excitement in me...

One thing we know for sure, J.K. Simmons will be nominated (and possibly win) for Whiplash. Playing a hot-headed jazz instructor with a short-fuse, character actor Simmons is a foul-mouthed spitfire. I had such anxiety watching this film as if I was being yelled at and ridiculed by him personally. Although I was never taken with the character and don't feel Simmons gets to play much in this other than to be a gigantic screaming asshole, which he more than delivers. But it's just the type of showy turn from a respected actor that the Academy couldn't possibly overlook. I loved the actual film (and especially Miles Teller's performance) and won't begrudge Simmons his moment, but I did want more from him and never found his insults (especially his endless homophobic slurs) as shockingly funny as it seemed others did. The film was already a hit at Sundance and is it continues to open in more locations, I think the support for Simmons will geo even more.  

It's also a pretty safe bet to include two-time Oscar nominee Edward Norton for his performance as difficult theatre actor, Mike Shiner, in Birdman. Norton, playing on his own reputation as a prickly performer that clashes with his directors, is absolutely hilarious in the role. As the ultimate serious actor, Norton completely commits to the role, not afraid to show the pettiness of Shiner, relishing in how unlikable he can be. But then in quieter moments, (his rooftop scenes with Emma Stone crackle with silent, pulsating energy) he gets to show a gentler side that save the character from being a one-dimensional jerk. Norton hasn't been nominated in over 15 years (and not in this category since his film debut in 1996), but Birdman is already a hit with critics and has potential to hit big with the Academy. It seems that a nomination for Norton is definitely secure.

This summer when Richard Linklater's 12-years-in-the-making Boyhood was released, it seemed that the early Oscar buzz for an acting nomination was only on Patricia Arquette. But as the months have passed, former nominee Ethan Hawke (nominated in 2001 in this category for Training Day) began his slow burn and his name started coming up as often in regards to awards talk. And now he's already gained an acting nomination from the Gotham Independent Film Awards for his work as Mason, Sr. Hawke has steadily built a strong reputation within the film community over the years, even branching out from acting and garnering 2 screenplay nominations for his work on the two beloved Before Sunrise sequels. Even the people who didn't necessarily love the movie still admired the commitment it took to complete. Honoring Hawke here could be seen as a way of honoring the movie itself and his 12 year dedication to his performance.

After Foxcatcher finally made its debut at Cannes this past May, proving that the delay was worth it, the debate began on how Steve Carell and Channing Tatum would be campaigned for Oscars. It seems that, for now, both men will go lead. But there was no question that Oscar-nominee, Mark Ruffalo, playing real-life murder victim and Olympic wrestler David Schultz, would always be in the supporting category. And it looks like Ruffalo is most likely scoring his second Oscar nominations for his work in the film. However, if things start to shift and Carell feels he could win in Supporting, Ruffalo's chances of a nomination get a little bit tougher. Ruffalo has had some other well-received, high-profile work this year in Begin Again and an Emmy nomination for HBO's The Normal Heart. A nomination could be seen as reward for a successful year, which could also weigh heavily on receiving the nom.

But what to make of the 5th position? Right now everyone from Tyler Perry in Gone Girl to Robert Duvall in The Judge (I'm very surprised people are still holding on to that one considering how poorly received the film was critically and financially) to Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice (he has the best chance of a nomination from the movie, but it's not the contender I think we initially thought it was) to Tim Roth and Tom Wilkinson from the unseen Selma have all been mentioned. But I have a hunch that the 5th nominee, like in the Best Actor line-up, will come from Angelina Jolie's Unbroken. But with all the names that could potentially breakout (Domhnall Gleeson, Garrett Hedlund, Jai Courtney, Finn Wittrock), my feeling is that Japanese pop star Miyavi playing an officer in the POW camp that Jack O'Connell is held prisoner and the main antagonist of the hero has the kind of baity part that wins awards attention.

My Predictions

Ethan Hawke Boyhood

Miyavi Unbroken

Edward Norton Birdman

Mark Ruffalo Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

My Favorite Best Supporting Actor Performances (of what I've seen so far)

Ben Mendelsohn Starred Up

Bill Nighy Pride

Edward Norton Birdman

Christophe Paou Strangers by the Lake

Sam Rockwell Laggies

Early Fall Predictions: Best Actress

Doesn't it seem like every year brings the same story about the Best Actress category? Mainly, the lack of major contenders and a category that almost every year seems to be deemed "weak". I'm sorry to say that after Cate Blanchett's impassioned speech about more leading roles for woman (they do make money! The world is round, people!), that it doesn't seem like the studios were paying attention. Well, compared to the many Best Actor hopefuls that get mentioned (and have a possibility of getting in), the Actresses don't ever seem to get the same attention. There's already been some great performances from some talented women this year, but they seem to be pretty much ignored as we head into Oscar movie season. And sadly I don't have any inspired choices of who will emerge as the final 5 nominees. In fact, my choices for who I will believe will make it in pretty much aligns with what everyone else seems to agree. Let's just hope we have some shake-ups as the season progresses otherwise it's gonna be a long, predictable couple of months.

Let's first start off with the two sure things. One a four time nominee that has never won before and the other a previous winner that hasn't had the most stellar career post-win.

In a just world, Julianne Moore would by all accounts already be a two-time winner (for Boogie Nights and Far From Heaven), but the Academy passed her over in favor of others all the previous times she was nominated. And she hasn't even received a nomination (despite some traction for her work in The Kids Are All Right and A Single Man) since her double nominations of 2002, showing signs that perhaps the Academy had cooled in their affection for her. But after winning the Best Actress prize at Cannes for her go-for-broke performance in the messy/whackadoo Maps to the Stars (which will now receive a Oscar-qualifying run, but is way too out-there for be a serious contender), the buzz on Moore began. Then, almost out of nowhere, she became the front-runner for not only a nomination, but to win the whole damn thing with her film that debuted at the Toronto Film Festival, Still Alice. Moore plays a linguistics professors that finds she's in the early stages of Alzheimer's. Word out of the festival was stellar and it may be too soon to get our hopes up of finally being able to say Academy Award winner Julianne Moore, but a nomination seems pretty secured.

Let the 2014 Reesurgence begin! After winning the Best Actress Oscar for 2005's Walk the Line, Reese Witherspoon's career, littered with well-meaning prestige films that didn't pan out and just plain awful romantic comedies (let us never speak of This Means War ever again), hasn't exactly inspired audiences, let alone the Academy. But starting with a small turn in last year's Mud, Witherspoon seems to be getting her footing again and with this fall's Wild (which she also produced), Witherspoon's journey to become a respected actress again seems to have come full circle. Playing Cheryl Strayed, the real-life woman that walked the Pacific Crest Trail (and wrote the book that the film is based on) to find herself. Witherspoon is said to give an amazing performance having already gained acclaim when the film showed in Toronto. And the film's director, Jean-Marc Vallée, certainly knows a thing or two about reviving the career of a floundering star, he directed last year's Dallas Buyers Club with Matthew McConaughey which won the actor the Best Actor Oscar and solidified the great McConaissance.

After reading the best-selling novel Gone Girl, I knew that whoever took on the part of Amy Dunne in the film adaptation would be sure to get some awards attention - the role is too juicy not to. Director David Fincher, after passing on bigger name stars, went with the relatively unknown Rosamund Pike, and, sure enough, Pike's star has risen and Oscar talk has begun. Pike, who has excelled in other films in supporting roles (her work as a not-as-dumb-as-she-seems blonde in An Education is a subtle delight), but I was lukewarm to her actual performance and to the film in general. But the film is already a huge hit and has inspired countless internet articles debating the notion of the "cool girl" and whether or not the film is misogynist. People are going to be talking about it for a long time and I think it'll be too big for the Academy not to include her in the Best Actress category.

After winning an acting award at Sundance for her performance in Like Crazy, big things were expected for new "It" girl, Felicity Jones. But critics and awards committees weren't exactly crazy for the film and it ended up being pretty much a non-starter. Jones has worked steadily since but hasn't exactly lit the world on fire. However with this fall's The Theory of Everything, opposite Best Actor hopeful Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking, Jones plays Hawking's first wife Jane, who met Hawking during university and stuck by him throughout his illness. The film is actually based on the memoir that Jane wrote, making her side of the story just as compelling as the well-known genius's and the Academy has always had a soft spot for the long-suffering wife role. Most of the early praise seems to be for Redmayne's physical transformation, but Jones seems like a safe bet for a nom alongside him for her steadfast performance.

The fifth spot seems to be a bit up in the air. There's two-time Oscar nominee Jessica Chastain for her work in the 80's set mob thriller A Most Violent Year. She could easily make the fifth spot as she also has the indie drama The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby which has admirers and the sure-to-be-big Nolan blockbuster Interstellar out at the same time to raise her profile. Her best shot seems to be AMVY, but votes may split over her other films. Another outside possibility is Oscar-winner Marion Cotillard in Belgium's Best Foreign Language Film entry Two Days, One Night, which she is (once again) brilliant in. But for some reason, the Academy seems reluctant to give the actress a second nomination and this film may be too small and too foreign to make an impact.

So I'm giving the fifth spot to an Academy favorite (she's already received 5 prior nominations without a win), with a film that people have already seemed to have lost faith in, sight unseen. But I still feel that Amy Adams in Tim Burton's Big Eyes, as the real-life painter of creepy/kitschy children with crazy huge peepers, could still make her way in. People are saying the film must not be very good since it's completed and hasn't been viewed at any film festivals, but with Harvey Weinstein behind it, I think he'll be pushing Adams big time in Dec. Adams is clearly liked by the Academy, so for now I'm still giving her the nom. Although a win doesn't seem as likely as it once did, since it seems that Julianne Moore may have come in to take over her overdue-for-a-win story arc...we shall see.

My Predictions

Amy Adams Big Eyes

Felicity Jones The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore Still Alice

Rosamund Pike Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon Wild

My Favorite Best Actress Performances (of what I've seen so far this year)

Marion Cotillard The Immigrant

Marion Cotillard Two Days, One Night

Scarlett Johansson Under the Skin

Gugu Mbatha-Raw Belle

Mia Wasikowska Tracks

Early Fall Predictions: Best Actor

Now that we are actually in Oscar Movie Season (the leaves are changing and adult dramas are back in the theaters again - rejoice!), I thought it would be a good time to reevaluate my predictions. That sidebar with my year in advance predictions was starting to look a little dated. (Sorry, Chadwick Boseman. I thought you were great in Get On Up - probably the best part of the entire movie - but a Best Actor nomination just is not going to happen.) And now that we've had the main film festivals (Toronto, Telluride, Venice, and New York) it seems that most of the major players have been viewed, with the top men fighting their way to the 5 spots in Best Actor.

It appears that two actors that are almost guaranteed nominations are a couple of Brits in a couple of baity biopics. Eddie Redmayne, who is already a Tony award winner and gained a little awards traction (or at least talk) a couple years ago when he played Marius in the Oscar-winning Les Misérables, seems to have taken the early frontrunner status for his transformative work as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. Playing the real-life physicist allows him to not only tackle the mimicry of a well-known figure but he also physically challenges himself as he shows the progression Hawking's body underwent as his disease left him almost entirely paralyzed. It's the sort of performance that Oscar will find hard to ignore and could bring a possible win.

Taking on another important British figure, although one not as well known, the internet's favorite actor (that bears a striking resemblance to a certain aquatic creature), Benedict Cumberbatch plays Alan Turing, the genius that successfully cracked the Enigma code, a huge step in the Allies winning WWII. But if that wasn't baity enough, Turing was later put to trial for his homosexuality, persecuted by the country that once celebrated him as a savior. Cumberbatch has been the next big thing for awhile. Although things didn't pan out for a nomination last year for the virtually forgotten The Fifth Estate, that there was talk at all for him just shows that people are eager to see him nominated. (His recent Emmy win for the beloved Sherlock certainly helps as well.) And with strong reviews for his performance, it seems he'll be making his way to a first nomination.

Another strong possibility is something of a comeback story. Michael Keaton, whose recent career hasn't exactly been as strong as it was back in his heyday of the late 80's and early 90's (Sorry, I never saw Need for Speed or the Robocop remake), seems to have found a role that could bring the veteran his first nomination. Starring in Oscar-nominated writer/director Alejandro G. Iñárritu's first foray into comedy (but it's a dark comedy), Keaton plays Riggan Thomson, an actor once known for playing a superhero now trying to mount a career-comeback on Broadway. Much has already been said about the parallels between the character and the former Batman's story (in fact, that's been most of what the early press has been about). But word is Keaton hits it out of the park with a nomination almost sure to follow.

Steve Carell may be best known as a comedian, but it seems that his against-type performance in Foxcatcher, in which the star wore a prosthetic nose (well, it worked for Nicole Kidman) and plays the real-life millionaire and murderer John du Pont, might just find his way to an Oscar nomination. That is if he doesn't lose his spot to his costar Channing Tatum said to give the performance of his career in the film. Both have had strong praise and buzz since the film debuted at Cannes back in May, but for now I'm giving the edge to Carell to secure a spot on the list. Both actors are stepping outside their comfort zone, but seeing funny man Carell play a chilling killer seems like the sort of game-changing performance the Academy would recognize.

For my fifth choice, I'm gonna go out on limb here with a film that has yet to be screened at festivals, with a relative unknown actor that's a little younger than Oscar is used to honoring. But after seeing Jack O'Connell in Starred Up this year, he has definitely emerged as a charismatic and talented actor, that seems capable of great things. With his performance in the Angelina Jolie-helmed Unbroken, playing an actual person (Louis Zamperini), who was a Olympian, WWII soldier, survived not only a plane crash but a raft stranded at sea for 47 days and a Japanese POW camp, I just have a hunch that it's a performance that will be too big to ignore. And the other names being tossed around right now (Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice is too weird, Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner seems too stuffy, Ralph Fiennes in Grand Budapest Hotel seems so long ago, and Ben Affleck in Gone Girl is just...no), they don't stand out the way O'Connell does. I think we're looking at an interesting year with some surprises and right now it's looking like a Best Actor category made up entirely of first time nominees.

My Predictions

Steve Carell Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton Birdman

Jack O'Connell Unbroken

Eddie Redmayne The Theory of Everything

My Favorite Best Actor Performances (of what I've seen so far this year)

Ralph Fiennes Grand Budapest Hotel

John Lithgow Love Is Strange

Alfred Molina Love Is Strange

Jack O'Connell Starred Up

Miles Teller Whiplash