Year in Advance Oscar Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor 2015

This time last year, J. K. Simmons came out of the gate strong when Whiplash debuted at Sundance and his inevitable march to victory went mostly unchallenged the entire year. (He was the only prediction I guessed correctly last year. But if you get one right, might as well be the winner!) One of the most talked about performances out of Sundance this year was Jason Segel's performance as Infinite Jest author David Foster Wallace in The End of the Tour, but I've ultimately left him off my predictions because of category confusion. The film focuses on Jesse Eisenberg as a magazine reporter working on a story about Wallace, so Segel's work could be seen as co-lead or supporting. I couldn't think who he could bump off from either list, so put him as a possibility outside of the five here. We'll have to see if is early buzz is enough to breakthrough. The five men I ultimately decided on are all from strong Best Picture contenders, with only two of the actors previous nominees. There's no frontrunner winner, like with Simmons. So for now, we'll just have to theorize how these actors could find themselves with Oscar nominations for their work this year.

* * *

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hardy The Revenant

Samuel L. Jackson The Hateful Eight

Liam Neeson Silence

Édgar Ramírez Joy

Seth Rogen Steve Jobs

Tom Hardy The Revenant

Hardy from "Lawless" Judging from the first pic from Leo in "The Revenant", Hardy will be much more bearded

The Role: Hardy plays John Fitzgerald a real-life frontiersman in the American West during the 1820s. While on a fur trading expedition with the film's protagonist Hugh Glass (Leonardo DiCaprio), Glass was mauled and wounded by a bear. Believing him to be dead, Fitzgerald and his fellow travelers left Glass behind. Glass survived the attack and traveled more than 200 miles to seek revenge against Fitzgerald.

Why He'll Be Nominated: Coming off his recent big wins for Director and Picture for Birdman, Alejandro González Iñárritu's follow-up to that film, The Revenant, will certainly be one that the Academy will be watching out for. While I think Leo is a strong possibility in Best Actor, from what I hear, the best role in the film belongs to Hardy's character. I'm not sure how they'll play it - if Fitzgerald maliciously left Glass behind or generally felt remorse. But I'm really hoping that it's a fun villainous turn for Hardy to sink his teeth into. Hardy has always been one to watch and has done award-worthy work in Bronson and Locke, but hasn't really had a role yet that's interested the Academy. I think this project, with the talent involved, should be his ticket to the Dolby theater.

Samuel L. Jackson The Hateful Eight

The Role: Teaming up with writer/director Quentin Tarantino for their sixth film together, Jackson plays Major Marquis Warren aka The Bounty Hunter. Taking place just after the Civil War, Jackson's character was in the Union Calvary during the war and became known for burning Confederates during a prison escape. He along with other bounty hunters and ruffians (I don't know, there may be 8 of them) are trapped together in a stagecoach rest stop during a blizzard when murders begin happening among them... 

Why He'll Be Nominated: Jackson might be the actor with the highest grossing film total of all time, but he has only been nominated once for an Oscar - for 1994's Pulp Fiction, a role that Tarantino wrote specifically for the actor. Many thought that Jackson should have been nominated for his work in the last film he and Tarantino did together, Django Unchained. But co-star Christoph Waltz ended up with the supporting nom (even though he was clearly a lead) and ended up winning. This film has had a rocky start after the script was leaked online and Tarantino canceling production because of it. But after a live reading and some script adjustments, Tarantino changed his mind and the film was back on for a November 13th release date. With a cast that includes Kurt Russell, Channing Tatum, Bruce Dern, and Tim Roth, to name a few, it might be hard to stand out from the ensemble. But I'm counting on Tarantino regular Jackson, in another tailor-made role, to emerge as the film's MVP.

Liam Neeson Silence

The Role: Set in 17th century Japan, Neeson plays Father Ferreira, a Jesuit priest in a Japanese missionary that was a mentor to the film's main character, Father Rodrigues (played by Andrew Garfield). The young priest has come to Japan because of a rumor that Ferreira has renounced his faith, but encounters persecution of Christians in the country.

Why He'll Be Nominated: In the past couple of years, Neeson has redefined his career and experienced a surge in popularity with his work kicking ass in action films, like the Taken trilogy. Sometimes it can be hard to remember that Neeson is a great actor and even received an Oscar nomination for Schindler's List. Teaming up with Scorsese again (he also appeared in the director's Gangs of New York) might just be the vehicle he needs to remind us all of his skills as an actor. The part doesn't seem like it'll be that much screen time, but it was once set to star Daniel Day-Lewis - an actor that works so infrequently that certainly he wouldn't have considered it unless it was of significance. (Interestingly, Day-Lewis actually took over the part of President Lincoln once intended for Neeson. Both actors had to drop out of the respective films because they took too many years to develop.) Silence is filming now so hopefully it will be ready in time for this year and here's also hoping that Neeson's work will be worthy of being recognized by the Academy.

Édgar Ramírez Joy

Obviously not from the film, but for some reason the paparazzi aren't following him on set like J. Law...

The Role: The Golden Globe and Emmy nominee (for the miniseries Carlos), the Venezuelan actor plays Tony Miranne, a fellow classmate of Lawrence's Joy. The two eventually married and had three children, but Miranne later divorced her.

Why He'll Be Nominated: Ramírez might not be as famous as his fellow co-stars Lawrence, De Niro, and Bradley Cooper, but he's just as talented and hopefully this film will be able to take his career to the next level and grab Oscar's attention. It was hard to choose which of Joy's men would make my prediction (De Niro plays Joy's father, Cooper is a HSN executive), but the Academy loves when actresses play long suffering wives, so why not recognize the man behind the successful woman. I'm not sure of the timeline of their relationship in the film, but I'm guessing that Miranne probably leaves Joy when her success threatens his masculinity...Judging from the track record of the past couple David O. Russell films, it's a safe bet that one of three men in this film will be recognized in this category. And Ramírez was suggested for the part by De Niro himself (the two worked together on a boxing film set to also come out this year, Hands of Stone), so he already has one fan in the Academy. If the part is interesting and not as thankless and dull as poor Jeremy Renner's good guy among the crazies of American Hustle, Ramírez could be looking at his first nomination.

Seth Rogen Steve Jobs

The Role: In a departure for the comedic actor, Rogen plays Steve Wozniak, one of the co-founders of Apple, Inc. and the creator of the company's first computers, which he designed single-handedly.

Why He'll Be Nominated: Perhaps getting jealous that friend Jonah Hill was getting attention from the Academy with two performances honored with nominations, it seems that Rogen decided to temporarily leave behind the frat boy humor and take a part in a dramatic film with an Oscar-winning director. It seems like a safe assumption that of all the nominees I predicted in this category that Rogen is the most likely to end up with a nomination next January. It just feels right. Oscar likes to reward actors that step outside of their comfort zone and it seems that Rogen as Woz is enough of a stretch tonally to do that (but still I have a feeling he'll still be a source of humor for the film). 

Other Possibilities: Bradley Cooper Joy, Robert De Niro Joy, Jason Segel The End of the Tour, Ken Watanabe The Sea of Trees, Forest Whitaker Southpaw

How I Did With My Year in Advance Predictions and Final Oscar Predictions

Tonight are the 87th Academy Awards and before the ceremony I thought it would be best to look back on my predictions for acting nominations made after last year's ceremony to see how well of an Oscar psychic I was. And also predict who will be taking home gold tonight. Three out of the four acting categories seem to be wrapped up (Yay! Julianne Moore!), but it seems like Best Actor is still up for grabs for a couple of actors (well, except for Carell. That's just not gonna happen). So let's dive right in...

* * *

"I've been smelling an Oscar nomination since the first day of filming..."

Best Actor

Year in Advance Predictions

Chadwick Boseman Get On Up

Steve Carell Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Jack O'Connell Unbroken

Joaquin Phoenix Inherent Vice

The Actual Nominees:

Steve Carell Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper American Sniper

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton Birdman

Eddie Redmayne The Theory of Everything

How Many Correctly Guessed: 2/5

Last year was my best year yet in this category, just a Tom Hanks shy (my prediction instead of Christian Bale) of having all 5 of the Best Actor nominees correctly chosen. This year I've gone down considerably, but sadly it was still my best category in predicting. There had been early buzz for Carell's work in Foxcatcher for literally years (as it was supposed to come out in 2013), but I'm actually surprised that he found his way in the final five as I was not impressed by his performance (or the movie as a whole). It seemed the film was losing momentum, but Oscar voters were more enamored than I thought. Cumberbatch was always going to get in because of where he is in his career at the moment, the nature of the role, and the Harvey Weinstein factor. I knew at the time that predicting Boseman and O'Connell both was a little younger than what the Academy usually goes for in this category, but the baitiness of both roles just seemed right up their alley. Boseman's performance as James Brown was electric, but the film just never really found an audience and the August release, instead of building momentum, just made it fade from memory as the months passed. O'Connell is still one of my favorite discoveries of this past year and I hope he finds Oscar attention in the coming years because he's very talented. Unbroken seemed like such a sure-thing on paper, but Angie just hasn't found her voice yet as a director (O'Connell made my own list of Best Actor performances this year...but for Starred Up). And Joaquin, coming off great work in The Master and her, seemed like an easy call to make. But Inherent Vice was...I don't wanna say a disaster, but it's pretty unwatchable for me. I'm surprised it managed the few Oscar nominations it did.

Keaton had been in the running for my year in advance predictions, but I decided to leave him off because I wasn't sure how successful González Iñárritu, usually so dour, would be with what everyone was billing as a comedy. The film ended up being more satirical and more darkly funny than I had initially imagined it to be. And now it appears that Keaton could actually win the whole thing...if it wasn't for Eddie Redmayne. Redmayne, who is relatively young for this category, does the kind of performance that wins Oscars with the biopic synopsis and his difficult physical transformation. Both men have been sharing the precursor prizes, with the slight edge going to Redmayne who won at SAG (the past 10 SAG winners in this category have all gone on to win Oscars) and there's also late-breaking dark horse Bradley Cooper, who received his third nomination in a row and whose film has been a huge success. But for whatever reason, I think they're going with Keaton, not just because he's great in the film, which plays on the actor's own career, but because he might not have a shot again. This seems like his moment.   

My Ranking of the Nominees: Keaton, Redmayne, Cumberbatch, Cooper, Carell
Who Will Win: Tough call (and the only one of the night in the acting categories), but I'm going with Keaton
Who Should Win: Keaton

"Dear Diary, I'm surprised as you that Fincher has become a go-to for Best Actress nominations..."

Best Actress

Year in Advance Predictions

Amy Adams Big Eyes

Cate Blanchett Carol

Rosamund Pike Gone Girl

Emma Stone Untitled Cameron Crowe Film

Meryl Streep Into the Woods

The Actual Nominees:

Marion Cotillard Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore Still Alice

Rosamund Pike Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon Wild

How Many Guessed Correctly: 1.5/5 (The half is for Streep...in the wrong category.)

My early predictions would have had three of the five actresses just nominated in this category making their return, but luckily none of them made their way back here...well, at least in Best Actress. Meryl is always gonna find her way into Oscar's heart. Don't get me wrong, I love to be right, but It's nice that the Academy isn't so predictable, always nominating the same actresses. Although, it did seem like Amy Adams could've still made it in here. (I was even still predicting her as the final fifth nominee that thankfully went to Cotillard.) But her film was not well received and I think most felt if she was gonna get a 6th nomination, it might as well be something she has a shot at winning for. Blanchett's film was always an iffy call as it hadn't started filming until April, but I thought it would be ready in time. It wasn't, but she just might make an appearance on my predictions for this year...And Meryl is always a default nominee. After last year when she went lead when she could've gone either way, I thought she would do that again. The film is truly an ensemble and could've gone either way, she would've gotten the nom either way (although, I personally don't think it ranks as some of her best work) and I'm sure Felicity Jones is grateful she went supporting. Emma Stone was another person that seemed ready for an Oscar nomination and I was right in predicting she would receive one this year...but in the wrong film and the wrong category. This film won't even be released until May of this year now (finally titled Aloha) and, judging from the leaked Sony emails, not one of Cameron Crowe's best. Rosamund Pike was the only actress I successfully predicted, but I think that anyone that played that part would've been nominated because of the character and Fincher's involvement. (I don't, however, think that she was all that successful with her take on it.)

But I couldn't possibly have predicted who would eventually win for Best Actress this year because her film wasn't even on the radar a year ago. It didn't even have a distributor until this fall. But here she is, our Best Actress front-runner, Julianne Moore in Still Alice. Although her performance doesn't rank among her best work for me and I think both Cotillard (who barely made it in, but gives the best performance in this category) and Witherspoon are much stronger in their films, I am very happy that Juli will finally be an Academy Award winner. And not to say that she's bad in the film - she's actually very good - I've just seen her give better performances and the film itself does her no favors. But it's definitely Juli's time, there is no other competition for the win this year. And I'm just happy that she's finally winning! 

My Rankings of the Nominees: Cotillard, Witherspoon, Moore, Pike, Jones
Who Will Win: Julianne Moore will finally be able to add "Academy Award Winner" before her name
Who Should Win: Cotillard, who gave two amazing performances this year

"Nice job, on predicting me. The only thing I'll throw at you are accolades..."

Best Supporting Actor

Year in Advance Predictions

Benicio Del Toro Inherent Vice

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

Channing Tatum Foxcatcher

Christopher Walken Jersey Boys

Christoph Waltz Big Eyes

The Actual Nominees:

Robert Duvall The Judge

Ethan Hawke Boyhood

Edward Norton Birdman

Mark Ruffalo Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

How Many Guessed Correctly: 1/5

I knew after Sundance that Simmons was making his way here, but I didn't suspect that his road to victory would be so easy. The only actor that I successfully predicted, Simmons has dominated every Best Supporting Actor category this year coasting to an Oscar win tonight. The other four men that found their way in this category along Simmons have all been nominated here before, but Simmons is assured the win. I say it every year, but this category is always the hardest to predict a year in advance. And as the same 5 men kept being nominated over and over again this awards season, it seemed that no one seemed all that interested in it to begin with. I knew I should have gone with Ruffalo as the Supporting nominee from Foxcatcher since Tatum's category placement was so up in the air, but it just never felt right to put him in over Chan (who gives my favorite performance in the film). I should probably stop predicting Christopher Walken, it never seems to pan out. But his surprise nom from Catch Me If You Can makes him a default for me in predicting this category. And he was arguably the best part of a terrible movie. (God, Jersey Boys was just bad.) Benicio Del Toro is another one like Walken that I always want to include because I think he's an amazing actor, but his film was polarizing and his part in it was way too small to make an impact. If anyone was getting a nomination it would've been Josh Brolin, who obviously didn't. Two-time winner in this category, Christoph Waltz, paired with Amy Adams and Tim Burton seemed like a safe bet, but there was category confusion with his film, which was pretty much a non-starter (outside of Adams' outside chances) to begin with. 

My Rankings of the Nominees: Norton, Hawke, Ruffalo, Simmons, Duvall
Who Will Win: It's been Simmons all season
Who Should Win: Norton

"Don't you judge me. I've been playing your mother for 12 years and have a guaranteed Oscar - I'm celebrating."

Best Supporting Actress

Year in Advance Predictions

Emily Blunt Into the Woods

Viola Davis Get On Up

Marcia Gay Harden Magic in the Moonlight

Anna Kendrick Into the Woods

Rooney Mara Carol

The Actual Nominees:

Patricia Arquette Boyhood

Laura Dern Wild

Keira Knightley The Imitation Game

Emma Stone Birdman

Meryl Streep Into the Woods

How Many Guessed Correctly: 0/5 (whomp, whomp...)

So what happened here? I didn't get a single nomination correctly predicted. I always give early predictions to Keira Knightley (I did previously for A Dangerous Method and Anna Karenina) and it never works out, I debated with including her in my year in advance predictions for Imitation Game but figured my love for her as an actress just wasn't the same as the Academy's. I guess they chose this year to finally prove me wrong...Mara, a former nominee,  might've made it, if her film had actually come out this year. Into the Woods just wasn't as good as I wished it would be (which had no impact on Streep - it never does), but no one seemed to notice either Blunt (who campaigned in lead) nor Kendrick from the film. I actually prefer both over Streep in this, but am perfectly fine in not successfully predicting their nominations as neither were good enough to warrant nods. And poor Viola Davis and Marcia Gay, both exceptional actresses in thankless cameo roles. Davis fares a little better, nailing the one big scene she's in, and might've been more of a contender if the film had been more successful. But I just watched Magic in the Moonlight a couple weeks ago and can barely remember that Marcia Gay was even in it.

Of course, none of the actresses I predicted a year ago nor the ones that actually made it in the category stand a chance for the win against Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. Like Simmons and Moore, she was won almost every precursor award and hopefully will have memorized her speech for this evening. It took a little longer for people to catch-up with Hawke as a nominee, but almost since it was released this summer, Arquette's performance in Boyhood has been praised as one of the film's best elements - especially her speech when Mason goes off to college. It's a long way to come for an actress that made her debut in Nightmare on Elm Street 3 in 1987, but as her decade plus performance in Boyhood showed, Arquette excels at the long game.

My Rankings of the Nominees: Arquette, Dern, Stone, Knightley, Streep
Who Will Win: Arquette's 12 year performance that's the heart of Boyhood
Who Should Win: Of these nominees, Arquette. But I'm honestly not that excited about any of them

* * * 

Make sure to come back all this week as I make my Year in Advance Predictions for 2015!

Final Supporting Predictions and a Plea for Pine and Swinton

It seems that both the supporting categories have been wrapped up with a frontrunner. In each, they are both so far ahead that the other actors that join them for nominations tomorrow morning will just be there as placeholders. And after both of them won the Golden Globe this past weekend (and every critics award there is), the inevitable march to Oscar victory for J.K. Simmons as a short-fused jazz instructor in Whiplash and Patricia Arquette as a single mother of two in Boyhood is all but assured. It helps that both are well respected among their peers, both have been acting for decades, and more importantly, both star in films that everyone seems to love (or at least greatly admire) that have had the luxury of having the time to actually being seen. Boyhood was the talk of the summer with it's once-in-a-lifetime, 12-year shoot and it only built momentum as the Oscar season officially kicked off. And Whiplash has had almost the entire year to build, having premiered at Sundance in January and played at numerous film festivals before opening in October to ecstatic audiences.

The other four men that will be joining Simmons in the Best Supporting Actor category are almost as assured nominations as Simmons is his eventual win. Already having joined him at the Golden Globes and SAG, they are: Edward Norton as a trouble-making, narcissistic actor (type-casting...) in Birdman, Mark Ruffalo as the only sane person in Foxcatcher (he really does seem to be getting nominated over his co-stars for the simple fact that he's the voice of reason in an irritating film), Ethan Hawke as the father in Boyhood (most of the early Oscar buzz was on Arquette as she has a more substantial role and great dramatic speeches, but as time went on, it seemed people took notice of Hawke's work as well), and a default nomination for Robert Duvall in the critically-panned The Judge, an inevitability that no one seems happy about. 

There are always surprises on nomination morning and this is the biggest category that could use some shaking up. But it seems that no one has built enough support to overtake Duvall. There are rumblings of Tom Wilkinson as LBJ in Selma, but the negative campaigning has relied solely on his characters inaccuracies and I fear he will suffer. Tyler Perry in Gone Girl, Miyavi in Unbroken, and Riz Ahmed in Nightcrawler all briefly seemed in the running at some point, but haven't really been mentioned since. For me, the one performance that should take the fifth spot is not only the best performance in a talented ensemble, but one of the year's most surprising, playful, and, well, charming... 

FYC: Chris Pine in Into the Woods as Best Supporting Actor

In a story populated by a diva-transforming witch, a klutzy Cinderella, and a sarcastic Little Red Riding Hood, the role of Cinderella's Prince on stage has never really been a stand-out. True, he has the comical "Agony" along with its reprise, but the character can't compete with the more fully-formed female characters. So in a film version that stars one of the greatest actresses in the world taking on the witchy role and an Oscar nominated new star of movie musicals taking on everyone's favorite ball-going, slipper-forgetter, it seemed that the women would once again dominate the story. So it comes as a pleasant surprise that Pine, whose previous work in a Sci-Fi franchise and mostly forgettable romcoms and action films hadn't really prepared us for his remarkable ease wih comedy, emerges as the film's best performance. In this transfer to the big screen, a lot of the humor of the stage show hasn't been maintained. (Lines that are normally guaranteed laughs seem to fall with a thud.) Luckily Pine's pompous princely airhead is the film's shining source of playfulness and the actor has a ball playing the chauvinist womanizer. The Prince might not be the heart of the story or really all that deep, but Pine's cartoonish take on the role is a welcome delight...(Click here to read more about Pine and Into the Woods from my "Meet the Contenders" series at The Film Experience)

Final Best Supporting Actor Predictions

Robert Duvall The Judge

Ethan Hawke Boyhood

Edward Norton Birdman

Mark Ruffalo Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

My Favorite Best Supporting Actor Performances

Ben Mendelsohn Starred Up

Alfred Molina Love is Strange

Bill Nighy Pride

Edward Norton Birdman

Chris Pine Into the Woods

* * *

Already while composing this post, I have changed my final predictions in Supporting Actress twice. So needless to say, this category is still very much up for grabs. The two actresses almost guaranteed to join Arquette are both from films that are sure to score Best Picture nominations, Emma Stone as the daughter of Michael Keaton's Riggan in Birdman and Keira Knightley in pretty much the supportive wife role in The Imitation Game, even if it's only really a supportive beard role. (I've predicted Knightley in previous years for her work in Anna Karenina and A Dangerous Method, but neither amounted to anything. I'm pleased that she'll get another nomination, but her role is thankless here and she was much better in her other two films this year, Laggies and Begin Again.)

The other two spots will most likely go with some combination of three women: Jessica Chastain as a gangster's daughter turned revengeful housewife in A Most Violent Year, Oscar perennial Meryl Streep as a singing witch in Into the Woods, and the surprise BAFTA nominee (and excellent) Rene Russo in Nightcrawler. I would personally love to see Russo make the final five, but I find it hard to believe the Academy will choose her over two of their favorite actresses. At this point it seems silly to ever bet against Streep even if her work hardly stands against some of her best in Woods. And Chastain has already received two previous nominations in the past and had another productive year with roles in four very different movies. A nomination would surely be to honor her body of work this year (just like her breakout year in 2011). So I've ultimately gone safe with predicting Streep and Chastain scoring their 19th and 3rd nominations, respectively.

However, if the Academy is looking for an out-there choice for Best Supporting Actress this year, that is anything but safe, there was no more wonderfully bonkers, go-for-broke performance quite like Tilda Swinton as Minister Mason, the dictator of a dystopian train filled with earth's remaining humanity in Bong Joon-ho's Snowpiercer.

FYC: Tilda Swinton in Snowpiercer as Best Supporting Actress

It's a common joke that Tilda Swinton is actually an alien living among us (something that the actress actually loves to play up), since her presence and talent seem otherworldly. So it's a little disappointing that the only time she has been recognized by the Academy was in this category for 2007's Michael Clayton, playing a very normal, if only a little cunning, corporate lawyer in a very adult drama. After all, this was an actress that has slept in a glass box in museums all over the world, started her acting career as the muse to avant garde artist/director Derek Jarman, and first came to prominence for playing a character that effortlessly shifted between genders and time periods. Luckily, the actress showed up to accept the award wearing what amounted to a fancy, designer garbage bag with her decades-younger lover on her arm, proving that not even an institution like the Academy can alter an off-kilter original like Swinton.

So it was a giddy delight to watch Swinton fully embracing her inner eccentric with one of the most bizarre characters in her filmography (or in recent cinematic memory) in this summer's Snowpiercer.  In a role originally written for a man, Swinton is virtually unrecognizable with gnarled teeth jutting out and coke bottle glasses engulfing her face. In creating the look and feel of the character, at one point she was asked to tone it down by directer Joon-ho when she asked if she could have a pig nose for Mason. Described by Swinton as a combination of Margaret Thatcher, Colonel Gaddafi, and Hitler, everything about her work in the film is so different and absurd that it threatens to derail the entire picture at times. But through her crazy commitment, it miraculously never does, bringing a stylized jolt of energy and uniqueness that could not have been created by anyone else - human or alien.

Final Best Supporting Actress Predictions

Patricia Arquette Boyhood

Jessica Chastain A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley The Imitation Game

Emma Stone Birdman

Meryl Streep Into the Woods

My Favorite Best Supporting Actress Performances

Minnie Driver Beyond the Lights

Rene Russo Nightcrawler

Tilda Swinton Snowpiercer

Uma Thurman Nymphomaniac 

Marisa Tomei Love is Strange

Have You Met the Oscar Contenders?

Over at The Film Experience, I just finished up a weekly series I've been doing since October called "Meet the Contenders". Each weekend from a newly released film, I selected an actor looking to score their first Oscar nomination and highlighted their performance. Not all of them will have a legitimate shot at even being in the running, but I really wanted to shine the light on certain actors or bring certain actors doing great work into the conversation. So, head on over and read about them all before nominations are announced on Thursday morning!

Meet the Contenders

Best Actor

Channing Tatum as Mark Schultz in Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch as Alan Turing in The Imitation Game

Oscar Isaac as Abel Morales in A Most Violent Year

David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King, Jr. in Selma

Best Actress

Rosamund Pike as Amy Dunne in Gone Girl

Felicity Jones as Jane Hawking in The Theory of Everything

Best Supporting Actor

J.K. Simmons as Fletcher in Whiplash

Sam Rockwell as Craig in Laggies

Chris Pine as Cinderella's Prince in Into the Woods

Best Supporting Actress

Emma Stone as Sam Thomson in Birdman

Rene Russo as Nina Romina in Nightcrawler

Kristen Stewart as Lydia Howland in Still Alice

Katherine Waterston as Shasta Fey Hepworth in Inherent Vice

Early Fall Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

With only two more months to go before the end of the year and only a handful of films still to be screened, the Best Supporting Actor category is still very much anyone's game. But as exciting as that seems, in theory, I found myself struggling to even fill out my own picks of favorite performances from this year. Certainly there must be some great performance that I'm overlooking. But for now, what people have decided as our options for the 5 slots aren't really inspiring much excitement in me...

One thing we know for sure, J.K. Simmons will be nominated (and possibly win) for Whiplash. Playing a hot-headed jazz instructor with a short-fuse, character actor Simmons is a foul-mouthed spitfire. I had such anxiety watching this film as if I was being yelled at and ridiculed by him personally. Although I was never taken with the character and don't feel Simmons gets to play much in this other than to be a gigantic screaming asshole, which he more than delivers. But it's just the type of showy turn from a respected actor that the Academy couldn't possibly overlook. I loved the actual film (and especially Miles Teller's performance) and won't begrudge Simmons his moment, but I did want more from him and never found his insults (especially his endless homophobic slurs) as shockingly funny as it seemed others did. The film was already a hit at Sundance and is it continues to open in more locations, I think the support for Simmons will geo even more.  

It's also a pretty safe bet to include two-time Oscar nominee Edward Norton for his performance as difficult theatre actor, Mike Shiner, in Birdman. Norton, playing on his own reputation as a prickly performer that clashes with his directors, is absolutely hilarious in the role. As the ultimate serious actor, Norton completely commits to the role, not afraid to show the pettiness of Shiner, relishing in how unlikable he can be. But then in quieter moments, (his rooftop scenes with Emma Stone crackle with silent, pulsating energy) he gets to show a gentler side that save the character from being a one-dimensional jerk. Norton hasn't been nominated in over 15 years (and not in this category since his film debut in 1996), but Birdman is already a hit with critics and has potential to hit big with the Academy. It seems that a nomination for Norton is definitely secure.

This summer when Richard Linklater's 12-years-in-the-making Boyhood was released, it seemed that the early Oscar buzz for an acting nomination was only on Patricia Arquette. But as the months have passed, former nominee Ethan Hawke (nominated in 2001 in this category for Training Day) began his slow burn and his name started coming up as often in regards to awards talk. And now he's already gained an acting nomination from the Gotham Independent Film Awards for his work as Mason, Sr. Hawke has steadily built a strong reputation within the film community over the years, even branching out from acting and garnering 2 screenplay nominations for his work on the two beloved Before Sunrise sequels. Even the people who didn't necessarily love the movie still admired the commitment it took to complete. Honoring Hawke here could be seen as a way of honoring the movie itself and his 12 year dedication to his performance.

After Foxcatcher finally made its debut at Cannes this past May, proving that the delay was worth it, the debate began on how Steve Carell and Channing Tatum would be campaigned for Oscars. It seems that, for now, both men will go lead. But there was no question that Oscar-nominee, Mark Ruffalo, playing real-life murder victim and Olympic wrestler David Schultz, would always be in the supporting category. And it looks like Ruffalo is most likely scoring his second Oscar nominations for his work in the film. However, if things start to shift and Carell feels he could win in Supporting, Ruffalo's chances of a nomination get a little bit tougher. Ruffalo has had some other well-received, high-profile work this year in Begin Again and an Emmy nomination for HBO's The Normal Heart. A nomination could be seen as reward for a successful year, which could also weigh heavily on receiving the nom.

But what to make of the 5th position? Right now everyone from Tyler Perry in Gone Girl to Robert Duvall in The Judge (I'm very surprised people are still holding on to that one considering how poorly received the film was critically and financially) to Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice (he has the best chance of a nomination from the movie, but it's not the contender I think we initially thought it was) to Tim Roth and Tom Wilkinson from the unseen Selma have all been mentioned. But I have a hunch that the 5th nominee, like in the Best Actor line-up, will come from Angelina Jolie's Unbroken. But with all the names that could potentially breakout (Domhnall Gleeson, Garrett Hedlund, Jai Courtney, Finn Wittrock), my feeling is that Japanese pop star Miyavi playing an officer in the POW camp that Jack O'Connell is held prisoner and the main antagonist of the hero has the kind of baity part that wins awards attention.

My Predictions

Ethan Hawke Boyhood

Miyavi Unbroken

Edward Norton Birdman

Mark Ruffalo Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

My Favorite Best Supporting Actor Performances (of what I've seen so far)

Ben Mendelsohn Starred Up

Bill Nighy Pride

Edward Norton Birdman

Christophe Paou Strangers by the Lake

Sam Rockwell Laggies

A Guide to Best Supporting Actor 2013

In anticipation of the Oscars on Sunday, March 2, I'll be taking a closer look at the 4 acting categories throughout the month.

Campaigning in this category got off to an interesting start with the early-release ads touting James Franco's turn in Spring Breakers asking voters to Consider This Shit. Another name in the running came about in sad way. After the sudden death of beloved Soprano's star James Gandolfini in the summer, popular opinion was that his work in Enough Said would make him a sentimental favorite with voters. But when the nominations were announced, neither were on the list and the only real surprise was that Jonah Hill managed to make the fifth slot over Daniel Brühl's lead turn in Rush (he seemed poised for a nom after scoring nominations from both the Golden Globes and SAG). The 5 names that emerged are a mix of Oscar first-timers and couple of guys looking for their first win after previous nominations. But one name seems to have emerged as the clear favorite to win– I just never thought that person would be the man forever to be known as Jordan Catalano. Here are the Best Supporting Actor Nominees for 2013.

* * *

Barkhad Abdi Captain Phillips

Age: 28
Previous Oscar Nominations: Film debut
The Role: Abduwali Muse, a Somalian pirate that hijacks the cargo ship that Tom Hanks' Captain Phillips is the commander of
Why He's Here: It seems almost everything written about the Somalian-born Abdi seems to focus on his life before winning the part of Muse at an open-call audition. At the age of 14, he moved to Minnesota and previously worked as a limo driver before holding his own on-screen alongside Oscar winner, Tom Hanks. And while his backstory is the sort of Cinderella-story that Oscar buzz thrives on, his powerful performance of a man just wanting something better in life is the real reason for the nomination. The newcomer is commanding in his early scenes ("Look at me. I'm the captain now.") and equally as heartbreaking as the film progresses, where his story is given just as much weight as Phillips'. Abdi has since moved to LA and is now working with an agent to see how far he can take a career as an actor, but it seems it may be hard to top this cinematic introduction.

Bradley Cooper American Hustle

Age: 39
Previous Oscar Nominations: A nominee last year for Best Actor Silver Linings Playbook 
The Role: Cooper plays Richie DiMaso a hothead FBI agent that teams up with a couple of cons to bring down corrupt politicians
Why He's Here: I have to admit that I'm not quite understanding the newfound love of Bradley Cooper as "serious actor". His performance in last year's David O' Russell film seemed like a manic, one-note Ben Stiller impression. And his work in this film just seems like a reprise of that performance, but with a home perm. I can never get past the fact that it feels like he's trying to make every moment and line as funny and intense as possible without regard to the story or situation at hand. But clearly I'm in the minority as he's now a back-to-back nominee and a member of the Hollywood A-List.

Michael Fassbender 12 Years a Slave

Age: 36
Previous Oscar Nominations: Despite Oscar-worthy performances in previous films (including 2011's Shame) this is his first nomination
The Role: A sadistic, religious-spouting slave owner in 1840's Louisiana named Edwin Epps
Why He's Here: After campaigning hard a couple years ago for an Oscar nomination that never came to be for Shame, Fassbender said that this year he would not be going about it in the same way stating "It's just a grind and I'm not a politician. I'm an actor." Luckily the work speaks for itself and he was able to land his first nomination for his third collaboration with director Steve McQueen. As Epps, Fassbender plays a conflicted man. He truly believes it is his god-given right to own slaves but his general love of his slave Patsy (Oscar nominee Lupita Nyong'o) is at odds with how he feels about himself and what he's been taught. This category has always looked favorably on villainous performances and Fassbender is menacing and malicious, but the performance is far from a stock character as we see the complexity of what makes the monster.

Jonah Hill The Wolf of Wall Street

Age: 30
Previous Oscar Nominations: Hill was previously nominated in this category for his work in 2011's Moneyball
The Role: As Donnie Azoff, Hill plays the right-hand man of Leonardo DiCaprio's Jordan Belfort, a scamming, hard-partyting financial worker on Wall Street
Why He's Here: Who would have guessed that the star of gross-out comedies Superbad and Knocked Up would be an Oscar nominee, let alone a two-time nominee now? But here we are as Hill makes his second bid to score the ultimate acting prize. Despite some strong critical disdain for the film (saying that the film glamorizes the wicked-ways of its characters), it was none the less a hit with the Academy where it received 5 nominations. And Hill gives the kind of showy performance that's hard to ignore. It isn't long before he's introduced that he's already smoking crack. That's only the beginning of a performance that includes swallowing a live goldfish and, perhaps his most talked about scene, at a pool party where he, um, pleasures himself in front of everyone. After admitting on Howard Stern that he only received $60,000 for playing Donnie, he said that he would have done anything to appear in a Martin Scorsese film and judging from the end result, that certainly seems the case.

Jared Leto Dallas Buyer's Club

Age: 42
Previous Oscar Nominations: First nom
The Role: Rayon, a transgendered, drug-addicted, HIV-positive patient that teams up with Ron Woodroof (Matthew McConaughey) to sell non-FDA approved medications.
Why He's Here: Having already scored wins from the Golden Globes, SAG, and countless critics awards, it seems safe to say that Leto has this award wrapped up. After some early controversy that his acceptance speech at the Globes was too jokey and didn't pay enough tribute to those that died from AIDS, he seems to be going out of his way now giving the same speech each time, dedicating the win to "the Rayon's of the world". But you can tell that he was definitely honored to play the character. And much has been said about the actor's return to film after a 6 year hiatus and how he lost 30 pounds, waxed his entire body (including his eyebrows), and stayed in character for the duration of filming. In addition to the physical transformation he went through to play the character, Leto is not afraid to chart the emotional journey of Rayon as well–particularly in the scene where Rayon dresses in a suit to see her estranged father. Leto has said that he has no immediate plans to act again (he seems to be concentrating on his music career in the band 30 Seconds To Mars), but even if he never does, we'll at least have his compelling work in this film.

Who Will Win: Jared Leto
Who Should Win: Michael Fassbender, but I'm okay with Leto

My Year in Advance Oscar Predictions 2013: How'd I Do?

I have an annual tradition. Every year, the day after the Oscar ceremony (while the winners are still tightly clutching their new golden guy from the night before), I predict who will be nominated for acting Oscars the following year. It's actually not as hard to predict as it may sound. There are just certain roles and people that naturally lend themselves to awards recognition. So, now that the nominees have been announced, let's gaze back into my crystal ball and see just how well I was at predicting the nominees an entire year in advance.

Don't look so forlorn, Bruce. You may have lost your teeth in the film, but you found a nomination.

Best Actor

My Year in Advance Predictions: 

Bruce Dern Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey Dallas Buyers Club

The Actual Nominees:

Christian Bale American Hustle

Bruce Dern Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey Dallas Buyers Club

How Many Correctly Guessed: 4/5

Damn that Christian Bale! Damn him, I say! He stood in my way of correctly predicting all 5 of the Best Actor nominees. But, in my defense, it really did look like Hanks was in. No one was even predicting Bale even a few weeks ago, let alone a year ago. I guess the lesson I need to learn now is that David O. Russell gets actors nominations. His past 3 films (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, and American Hustle) have earned 11 nominations in the acting categories (and 3 wins). Of all my years doing this (before my blog I would e-mail my picks to my friends), this is the best I've ever predicted. I really was so close to getting all 5 correct. Looking back, I still would've put Hanks over Bale as Bale just won recently and Hanks is beloved in Hollywood and hasn't been nominated since 2000 for Cast Away. And if someone asked me if I would have predicted that Matthew McConaughey would be an Oscar nominee (and front-runner for the win) about 3 years ago, I would have laughed in their face. But such is the McConeissance (which, if you ask me, should have been the real word of 2013 instead of twerking). Alright, alright, alright.

"You know, I learned a very important lesson this year: not every biopic gets nominated. I guess the film has to actually be good as well..."

Best Actress

My Year in Advance Predictions:

Nicole Kidman Grace of Monaco

Julia Roberts August: Osage County

Meryl Streep August: Osage County

Naomi Watts Diana

Kate Winslet Labor Day

The Actual Nominees:

Amy Adams American Hustle

Cate Blanchett Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock Gravity

Judi Dench Philomena

Meryl Streep August: Osage County

How Many Correctly Guessed: 1.5/5 

(The half point is for Roberts who did get nominated...in Supporting)

I've said it once and I'll say it again: Never doubt an Oscar Nomination for Meryl Streep. Like death and paying taxes, it's just one of those inevitable things. And thank god she actually got in here otherwise I wouldn't have correctly predicted anyone (don't worry, that's coming up shortly). For my favorite category, I don't always do so well with predictions here. I think because I choose actresses that  I personally love over one's that will necessarily garner nominations. I would never predict Sandy Bullock getting awards for acting, but here she is a winner and receiving her second nomination. There are also women that I always end up choosing (Kidman, Winslet, and Keira Knightley–when is that second nomination gonna happen already?!) that the Academy don't seem to love as much as I do. I need to stop predicting Nicole Kidman for the simple fact that she never films things she signs on for or, like with this film, the release gets pushed back. After it was announced that the November release date was being pushed back until the spring of this year, it was not a good sign for Grace. Then, this week, it was dropped from the Weinstein Company's schedule all together...because it had been chosen as the opening film at the Cannes Film Festival. That's a roller coaster of release dates. But now that it will officially be released this year, I'm still not betting on it. And will Kate Winslet ever receive another nomination again? (I haven't seen Labor Day yet, but it's not looking so good.) It seems once she won they shoved her out the door. But, most importantly, what about Naomi Watts in Diana, you ask? Well, the less said about it the better...

Stop laughing at me, Jonah! Is there ANYONE that could've predicted you'd have TWO Oscar nominations?!?

Best Supporting Actor:

My Year in Advance Predictions:

Javier Bardem The Counselor

Josh Brolin Labor Day

Steve Carrell Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch The Fifth Estate

Joaquin Phoenix Lowlife

The Actual Nominees:

Barkhad Abdi Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper American Hustle

Michael Fassbender 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club

How Many Correctly Guessed: 0/5

Not only was I unable to predict any of the eventual nominees in this category, but all my choices were so spectacularly bad it's almost laughable. Let's recap: two films that weren't even released this year (Foxcatcher was supposed to be, then it wasn't, then it was going to be released in time for awards season, and then it eventually was rescheduled for this year sometime. And Lowlife played some film festivals with the new title The Immigrant, but again it's release date seems uncertain. IMDB is telling me sometime in April) and then we have three legitimate bombs. The Counselor was on countless worst of the year lists, but I don't even remember anyone mentioning Bardem at all in it. So he got off lucky. Labor Day has also popped up on some of those same lists and it sure didn't help its chances that it still hasn't even been released yet. (It had a week-long qualifying run in LA, so it was eligible for Oscars this year, but that just didn't happen.) And then we have The Fifth Estate. Last year, I had debated on whether or not to put Cumberbatch in the lead or supporting category, but it turns out the film was so bad that it didn't really matter at all! 

"Have sex with a car, they said. Do a crazy accent, they said. You're sure to get an Oscar nomination. What was I thinking?"

Best Supporting Actress

My Year in Advance Predictions:

Cate Blanchett The Monuments Men

Cameron Diaz The Counselor

Margo Martindale August: Osage County

Emma Thompson Saving Mr. Banks

Oprah Winfrey The Butler

The Actual Nominees:

Sally Hawkins Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence American Hustle

Lupita Nyong'o 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts August: Osage County

June Squibb Nebraska

How Many Correctly Guessed: 1 0/5 (no Oprah?!)

Remember how I said Bardem got off easy with The Counselor? Well, the same cannot be said of Cameron Diaz who was continually singled out as the worst part of the movie (especially for the scene where she has sex with a car). Rumor has it that she also had to re-record all her dialogue because the Rihanna-like accent she used during filming was too hard to understand. Oh, Cammie D. I like that you keep trying. Hopefully one day it will work out for you. For awhile there, it looked like Emma Thompson and Oprah were actually going to be nominated, but it just wasn't meant to be. Emma ended up in the lead category anyway and Julia Roberts (an actual lead) made her way to this category thus taking away any chances that Margo Martindale had of being nominated. Do I get any points for correctly predicting that Cate Blanchett would get a nomination this year? True, it was in the wrong category and for a movie that got its release date pushed to the wasteland that is February, but it might still count for something. I think the biggest disappointment is that, despite a SAG nomination and being predicted by most pundits, the one and only Oprah failed to get a nomination for Lee Daniels' The Butler. That's the second year in a row that an actress in one of his movies has been shut out in this category despite scoring a SAG nom. I would feel sorry for her if she wasn't so wildly wealthy and successful already.

Make sure you check back on March 3 to see who I predict for Oscar Nominations in 2014!