Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: Best Actor 2015

This past Sunday, the Academy honored the best of 2014 (well, what they deemed the best anyway) and the performances of Eddie Redmayne, Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons, and Patricia Arquette (all from Best Picture nominated films) were ultimately crowned the victors (all were first-time winners as well). While there were highs (Julianne Moore is an Oscar winner at last! Man, that performance of "Glory" from Selma sure stirred some emotions...And who knew I needed Lady Gaga signing a medley of songs from The Sound of Music in a faux British accent in my life?) there were also many lows (Hosting is a thankless job and sadly Neil Patrick Harris was not up to the task this year. Who invited Sean Penn to present Best Picture - was no one else available? And oh, creepy uncle John Trovalta, as screenwriter Graham Moore said in his acceptance speech, "Stay weird.") Now that we've closed the books on another year, it's time to...predict the acting nominees for next year! (duh)

It's an annual tradition I have here of selecting who I think - site unseen, months in advance - could potentially be nominated for the upcoming Oscars. It's all for fun (and who doesn't like to have some bragging rights?), so take it in, bookmark for when nominations are announced in January 2016, and see how well I did! The predictions begin with Best Actor and make sure to come back all this week for the other acting categories!

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Best Actor

Michael Fassbender Steve Jobs

Tom Hanks St. James Place

Tom Hiddleston I Saw the Light

Robert Redford Truth

Eddie Redmayne The Danish Girl

Michael Fassbender Steve Jobs

The Role: Thanks to the Sony email hacks from December, the drama of casting the titular lead role in this Danny Boyle helmed film about the founder and CEO of Apple Inc. turned into headline news. After Leonardo DiCaprio eventually passed on it, Christian Bale was approached but declined. Screenwriter Aaron Sorkin, showing how out of touch he is with modern cinema, was eager to cast Tom Cruise (really?) and initially scoffed at the man who finally landed the part saying, "I don't know who Michael Fassbender is and the rest of the world isn't going to care."

Why He'll Be Nominated: Sorry, Mr. Sorkin, but I have a very good feeling that the Academy will definitely care about one of the best actors working today taking on such a well-known figure. After he failed to score an Oscar nomination for his performance in Shame (2011), the Academy finally honored Fassbender with a supporting nomination in Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave (2013) and starring in such a high profile, prestige film like Steve Jobs is certainly more than enough to garner Oscar's attention again. It certainly helps that Fassbender is set to potentially have a banner year with no less than 5 other films set to open this year including one of Shakespeare's most famous characters, Macbeth, a part in one of legendary director Terrence Malick's films (well, if his part isn't completely cut), and a starring role in The Light Between Oceans, the next film from one of my favorite new director's Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine, The Place Beyond the Pines). But his best bet out of all of them for a nomination is certainly as Jobs. He's gotta fare better than Ashton Kutcher's take on the man at least...    

Tom Hanks St. James Place

The Role: Two-time Best Actor winner (and five-time nominee) Hanks takes on the role of real-life lawyer James Donovan, who in 1960 negotiated with the Soviet Union to release an American pilot that was shot down in their airspace. The U-2 Incident (named after the plane that was captured) was at the height of the Cold War between the two countries.

Why He'll Be Nominated: American treasure Hanks used to be a reliable Oscar favorite all through the '90s, but he hasn't received an acting nomination since 2000's Castaway. Despite what some saw as some of his strongest work to date in 2013's Captain Phillips (that scene where he breaks down after being rescued is probably his finest moment) and a guaranteed lock for his sixth nomination, Hanks found himself the odd man out in favor of Christian Bale in American Hustle. I think that snub will do well in securing him a nomination this year as a way of amending the oversight. Playing a character based on an actual person and teaming up for the fourth time with Academy favorite Steven Spielberg, (whose last film brought a Best Actor win for Daniel Day-Lewis) certainly seems like a good way of grabbing the Academy's attention. Plus, he'll also appear this year in the film version of Dave Eggers' A Hologram for the King, which is sure to be another great showcase for the actor. But I'm giving the edge to his work with Spielberg to garner him that sixth Best Actor nomination that eluded him two years ago.

Tom Hiddleston I Saw the Light

The Role: In this musical biopic, Tom Hiddleston plays one of the legends of country music, Hank Williams. Unable to read or notate music, Williams wrote such hit songs as "Your Cheatin' Heart" and "I'm So Lonesome I Could Cry" and had 11 number one hits on the Billboard country charts. An alcoholic and addicted to prescription drugs, he died at the age of 29.

Why He'll Be Nominated: British born and classically trained British thespian Hiddleston doesn't immediately spring to mind as the first person to play a famous country singer (and at 34, he's already 5 years older than Williams was when he died), but the Academy loves when an actor is able to challenge themselves. Hiddleston, who will sing and play the guitar himself in the film, trained everyday for a month and even showed off his skills to audiences at a country music festival back in September. Hiddleston is part of the group of new British actors (made up of Cumberbatch and Fassbender) that have made a name for themselves as actors to watch over the past couple of years. His work as villain Loki in the Marvel films has proven he can bring considerable charm, skill, and gravitas to almost any project (and he'll do it again this fall in the genre, horror film from Guillermo del Toro, Crimson Peak). And while both of his fellow Brits have already been honored by the Academy with nominations, it seems that if Hiddleston is able to pull off his transformation as Williams, it'll be the right time to honor him as well.    

Robert Redford Truth

The Role: Hollywood legend Robert Redford tackles the role of news anchor Dan Rather in his final days at CBS news. Based on the book Truth and Duty by Rather's producer Mary Mapes (to be played in the film by Cate Blanchett), Rather found himself under fire during the reelection for George W. Bush when he reported that the President received special treatment to avoid serving in Vietnam.

Why He'll Be Nominated: Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, The Way We Were, All the President's Men, there's no doubt that Robert Redford has secured his cinematic legacy. And not content to just act, then he did it again as a director (winning Best Director for Ordinary People). But, surprisingly, Redford has only received one acting nomination from the Academy in his entire career (for 1973's The Sting). He came very close with his one man, almost wordless performance in 2013's All Is Lost, but like Hanks that same year, found himself without a nomination (it was a rough year for acting veterans). But like Hanks, that shut out should help him score points with his work this year. The Academy loves mimicry of well-known figures and this period in Rather's life is a juicy bit of storytelling. Paired with recent Best Actress winner Blanchett, it seems like something the Academy would be interested in rewarding. Political films can be hit or miss, but if the film is more Good Night and Good Luck or The Insider and less like Redford's own snoozer Lions for Lambs, it could surely score a second career acting nomination for the star.  

Eddie Redmayne The Danish Girl

The Role: The recent Best Actor winner (very recent, as in just two days ago) could find himself with back-to-back nominations (and perhaps even back-to-back wins) playing artist Einar Wegener, a transgender woman that became one of the first on record to have gender reassignment surgery.

Why He'll Be Nominated: Oscar tends to get crushes on certain actors for certain periods of time, nominating them for anything that appears worthy. And newly anointed victor Redmayne looks to be securing an afterglow nomination with his work for this film which pairs him up again with his Les Miz director Tom Hopper. His win on Sunday as Stephen Hawking shows that the Academy was impressed with his physical transformation as the physicist, but as Einar/Lili the actor will be challenged to transform himself again, physically and emotionally. The project was a passion of Nicole Kidman for over a decade, but she could never get it off the ground. Perhaps now is the right time, with shows like Transparent and actress Laverne Cox making discussions of trans people and their struggles for acceptance an important issue, to shine the light on this groundbreaking pioneer that made it possible for future individuals to live as they were intended. 

Other Possibilities: Don Cheadle Miles Ahead, Bryan Cranston Trumbo, Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant, Jake Gyllenhaal Demolition, Michael Shannon Midnight Special 

How I Did With My Year in Advance Predictions and Final Oscar Predictions

Tonight are the 87th Academy Awards and before the ceremony I thought it would be best to look back on my predictions for acting nominations made after last year's ceremony to see how well of an Oscar psychic I was. And also predict who will be taking home gold tonight. Three out of the four acting categories seem to be wrapped up (Yay! Julianne Moore!), but it seems like Best Actor is still up for grabs for a couple of actors (well, except for Carell. That's just not gonna happen). So let's dive right in...

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"I've been smelling an Oscar nomination since the first day of filming..."

Best Actor

Year in Advance Predictions

Chadwick Boseman Get On Up

Steve Carell Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Jack O'Connell Unbroken

Joaquin Phoenix Inherent Vice

The Actual Nominees:

Steve Carell Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper American Sniper

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton Birdman

Eddie Redmayne The Theory of Everything

How Many Correctly Guessed: 2/5

Last year was my best year yet in this category, just a Tom Hanks shy (my prediction instead of Christian Bale) of having all 5 of the Best Actor nominees correctly chosen. This year I've gone down considerably, but sadly it was still my best category in predicting. There had been early buzz for Carell's work in Foxcatcher for literally years (as it was supposed to come out in 2013), but I'm actually surprised that he found his way in the final five as I was not impressed by his performance (or the movie as a whole). It seemed the film was losing momentum, but Oscar voters were more enamored than I thought. Cumberbatch was always going to get in because of where he is in his career at the moment, the nature of the role, and the Harvey Weinstein factor. I knew at the time that predicting Boseman and O'Connell both was a little younger than what the Academy usually goes for in this category, but the baitiness of both roles just seemed right up their alley. Boseman's performance as James Brown was electric, but the film just never really found an audience and the August release, instead of building momentum, just made it fade from memory as the months passed. O'Connell is still one of my favorite discoveries of this past year and I hope he finds Oscar attention in the coming years because he's very talented. Unbroken seemed like such a sure-thing on paper, but Angie just hasn't found her voice yet as a director (O'Connell made my own list of Best Actor performances this year...but for Starred Up). And Joaquin, coming off great work in The Master and her, seemed like an easy call to make. But Inherent Vice was...I don't wanna say a disaster, but it's pretty unwatchable for me. I'm surprised it managed the few Oscar nominations it did.

Keaton had been in the running for my year in advance predictions, but I decided to leave him off because I wasn't sure how successful González Iñárritu, usually so dour, would be with what everyone was billing as a comedy. The film ended up being more satirical and more darkly funny than I had initially imagined it to be. And now it appears that Keaton could actually win the whole thing...if it wasn't for Eddie Redmayne. Redmayne, who is relatively young for this category, does the kind of performance that wins Oscars with the biopic synopsis and his difficult physical transformation. Both men have been sharing the precursor prizes, with the slight edge going to Redmayne who won at SAG (the past 10 SAG winners in this category have all gone on to win Oscars) and there's also late-breaking dark horse Bradley Cooper, who received his third nomination in a row and whose film has been a huge success. But for whatever reason, I think they're going with Keaton, not just because he's great in the film, which plays on the actor's own career, but because he might not have a shot again. This seems like his moment.   

My Ranking of the Nominees: Keaton, Redmayne, Cumberbatch, Cooper, Carell
Who Will Win: Tough call (and the only one of the night in the acting categories), but I'm going with Keaton
Who Should Win: Keaton

"Dear Diary, I'm surprised as you that Fincher has become a go-to for Best Actress nominations..."

Best Actress

Year in Advance Predictions

Amy Adams Big Eyes

Cate Blanchett Carol

Rosamund Pike Gone Girl

Emma Stone Untitled Cameron Crowe Film

Meryl Streep Into the Woods

The Actual Nominees:

Marion Cotillard Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore Still Alice

Rosamund Pike Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon Wild

How Many Guessed Correctly: 1.5/5 (The half is for Streep...in the wrong category.)

My early predictions would have had three of the five actresses just nominated in this category making their return, but luckily none of them made their way back here...well, at least in Best Actress. Meryl is always gonna find her way into Oscar's heart. Don't get me wrong, I love to be right, but It's nice that the Academy isn't so predictable, always nominating the same actresses. Although, it did seem like Amy Adams could've still made it in here. (I was even still predicting her as the final fifth nominee that thankfully went to Cotillard.) But her film was not well received and I think most felt if she was gonna get a 6th nomination, it might as well be something she has a shot at winning for. Blanchett's film was always an iffy call as it hadn't started filming until April, but I thought it would be ready in time. It wasn't, but she just might make an appearance on my predictions for this year...And Meryl is always a default nominee. After last year when she went lead when she could've gone either way, I thought she would do that again. The film is truly an ensemble and could've gone either way, she would've gotten the nom either way (although, I personally don't think it ranks as some of her best work) and I'm sure Felicity Jones is grateful she went supporting. Emma Stone was another person that seemed ready for an Oscar nomination and I was right in predicting she would receive one this year...but in the wrong film and the wrong category. This film won't even be released until May of this year now (finally titled Aloha) and, judging from the leaked Sony emails, not one of Cameron Crowe's best. Rosamund Pike was the only actress I successfully predicted, but I think that anyone that played that part would've been nominated because of the character and Fincher's involvement. (I don't, however, think that she was all that successful with her take on it.)

But I couldn't possibly have predicted who would eventually win for Best Actress this year because her film wasn't even on the radar a year ago. It didn't even have a distributor until this fall. But here she is, our Best Actress front-runner, Julianne Moore in Still Alice. Although her performance doesn't rank among her best work for me and I think both Cotillard (who barely made it in, but gives the best performance in this category) and Witherspoon are much stronger in their films, I am very happy that Juli will finally be an Academy Award winner. And not to say that she's bad in the film - she's actually very good - I've just seen her give better performances and the film itself does her no favors. But it's definitely Juli's time, there is no other competition for the win this year. And I'm just happy that she's finally winning! 

My Rankings of the Nominees: Cotillard, Witherspoon, Moore, Pike, Jones
Who Will Win: Julianne Moore will finally be able to add "Academy Award Winner" before her name
Who Should Win: Cotillard, who gave two amazing performances this year

"Nice job, on predicting me. The only thing I'll throw at you are accolades..."

Best Supporting Actor

Year in Advance Predictions

Benicio Del Toro Inherent Vice

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

Channing Tatum Foxcatcher

Christopher Walken Jersey Boys

Christoph Waltz Big Eyes

The Actual Nominees:

Robert Duvall The Judge

Ethan Hawke Boyhood

Edward Norton Birdman

Mark Ruffalo Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

How Many Guessed Correctly: 1/5

I knew after Sundance that Simmons was making his way here, but I didn't suspect that his road to victory would be so easy. The only actor that I successfully predicted, Simmons has dominated every Best Supporting Actor category this year coasting to an Oscar win tonight. The other four men that found their way in this category along Simmons have all been nominated here before, but Simmons is assured the win. I say it every year, but this category is always the hardest to predict a year in advance. And as the same 5 men kept being nominated over and over again this awards season, it seemed that no one seemed all that interested in it to begin with. I knew I should have gone with Ruffalo as the Supporting nominee from Foxcatcher since Tatum's category placement was so up in the air, but it just never felt right to put him in over Chan (who gives my favorite performance in the film). I should probably stop predicting Christopher Walken, it never seems to pan out. But his surprise nom from Catch Me If You Can makes him a default for me in predicting this category. And he was arguably the best part of a terrible movie. (God, Jersey Boys was just bad.) Benicio Del Toro is another one like Walken that I always want to include because I think he's an amazing actor, but his film was polarizing and his part in it was way too small to make an impact. If anyone was getting a nomination it would've been Josh Brolin, who obviously didn't. Two-time winner in this category, Christoph Waltz, paired with Amy Adams and Tim Burton seemed like a safe bet, but there was category confusion with his film, which was pretty much a non-starter (outside of Adams' outside chances) to begin with. 

My Rankings of the Nominees: Norton, Hawke, Ruffalo, Simmons, Duvall
Who Will Win: It's been Simmons all season
Who Should Win: Norton

"Don't you judge me. I've been playing your mother for 12 years and have a guaranteed Oscar - I'm celebrating."

Best Supporting Actress

Year in Advance Predictions

Emily Blunt Into the Woods

Viola Davis Get On Up

Marcia Gay Harden Magic in the Moonlight

Anna Kendrick Into the Woods

Rooney Mara Carol

The Actual Nominees:

Patricia Arquette Boyhood

Laura Dern Wild

Keira Knightley The Imitation Game

Emma Stone Birdman

Meryl Streep Into the Woods

How Many Guessed Correctly: 0/5 (whomp, whomp...)

So what happened here? I didn't get a single nomination correctly predicted. I always give early predictions to Keira Knightley (I did previously for A Dangerous Method and Anna Karenina) and it never works out, I debated with including her in my year in advance predictions for Imitation Game but figured my love for her as an actress just wasn't the same as the Academy's. I guess they chose this year to finally prove me wrong...Mara, a former nominee,  might've made it, if her film had actually come out this year. Into the Woods just wasn't as good as I wished it would be (which had no impact on Streep - it never does), but no one seemed to notice either Blunt (who campaigned in lead) nor Kendrick from the film. I actually prefer both over Streep in this, but am perfectly fine in not successfully predicting their nominations as neither were good enough to warrant nods. And poor Viola Davis and Marcia Gay, both exceptional actresses in thankless cameo roles. Davis fares a little better, nailing the one big scene she's in, and might've been more of a contender if the film had been more successful. But I just watched Magic in the Moonlight a couple weeks ago and can barely remember that Marcia Gay was even in it.

Of course, none of the actresses I predicted a year ago nor the ones that actually made it in the category stand a chance for the win against Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. Like Simmons and Moore, she was won almost every precursor award and hopefully will have memorized her speech for this evening. It took a little longer for people to catch-up with Hawke as a nominee, but almost since it was released this summer, Arquette's performance in Boyhood has been praised as one of the film's best elements - especially her speech when Mason goes off to college. It's a long way to come for an actress that made her debut in Nightmare on Elm Street 3 in 1987, but as her decade plus performance in Boyhood showed, Arquette excels at the long game.

My Rankings of the Nominees: Arquette, Dern, Stone, Knightley, Streep
Who Will Win: Arquette's 12 year performance that's the heart of Boyhood
Who Should Win: Of these nominees, Arquette. But I'm honestly not that excited about any of them

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Make sure to come back all this week as I make my Year in Advance Predictions for 2015!

Final Best Actor Predictions and a Plea for Fiennes

On Thursday, January 15th, the nominations for the 87th Annual Academy Awards will be announced and if last night's Golden Globes are any indication, it looks like the Best Actor win this year comes down to two performances: Eddie Redmayne's physically transformative work as Stephen Hawking in the Oscar-bait biopic The Theory of Everything and the comeback of 80s movie star Michael Keaton as Riggan Thomson, a former superhero looking for an artistic rebirth in Birdman. I think the slight edge goes to Keaton, in a film more generally liked overall, and whose teary acceptance speech last night left many moved. The other three rounding out the category will undoubtably include Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game and Jake Gyllenhaal, who at one point seemed like a longshot, but after recognition from SAG, the Golden Globes, and BAFTA seems pretty secure with a nom. The last spot, once reserved for Steve Carell's dramatic work in Foxcatcher seems to have lost steam with a chilly reception for the film (I was not a fan). So given the love the Academy has for biopics, and how great the film actually is, I predict the 5th spot goes to David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King, Jr. in Selma. A moving performance that brought some humanity to the revered icon.

Every year, there are great performances that just never mange to make it in the final five. And I can't always say that I ever really agree with the opinion of the Academy (actually, more times than not, we aren't in agreement. Previously, the week before nominations are announced, I've always selected a favorite performance of mine in each of the acting categories and made an impassioned plea that somehow they are honored with a nomination. (Check out previous years here and here.) I'm continuing it this year with my Best Actor pick, Ralph Fiennes in Wes Anderson's The Grand Budapest Hotel.

FYC: Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel as Best Actor

Classically trained, British Actor Ralph Fiennes has a reputation for being, well, intense. Perhaps it was due to the film that first brought him recognition and his first Oscar nomination (and what should've been a win), brilliantly playing a sadistic Nazi officer in Steven Spielberg's Best Picture winner Schindler's List (1993). Even when he became a romantic leading man, like in his other Oscar-nominated performance in another Best Picture winner The English Patient (1996), Fiennes still brought a smoldering intensity to his role. His love for Kristin Scott Thomas' Katharine almost more possessive and all-consuming than your regular affair. It doesn't help that he spends the majority of the film as a burn victim. From playing the noseless embodiment of pure evil as Harry Potter's Voldemort to a violent, expletive-spouting killer in the dark comedy, In Bruges, it's safe to say that a light-hearted Fiennes is not something we're accustomed to seeing.

Which is why his turn as Monsieur Gustave H. the concierge of the prestigious titular hotel at the center of Wes Anderson's colorfully detailed caper seems like such a departure for the actor and a wondrous revelation. As the suave, heavily-perfumed proprietor, Gustave has a tendency to be a little hands-on with the older, female clientele and Fiennes playing off his clipped, upper-crust persona relishes the opportunity to subvert his image. His Gustave H. is a bit of a cad and pretty much a snob, but Fiennes makes him endearingly so. Much has been said about how Anderson's films are perfectly calibrated and meticulously crafted, and Fiennes' comedic timing is just as precise - deadpan, droll, and there's nothing quite like hearing Fiennes deftly dropping a well-placed f-bomb to awaken a naughty comedic sensibility titillating in its execution.   

The Academy has a tendency to overlook performances as effortlessly enjoyable as this, preferring their actors to suffer for their art. But after years of watching Ralph Fiennes suffering to great effect, it would be wonderful if his foray into comedy was also able to be recognized by the Academy. And in a year of intense performances from other actors in biopics or disabilities, it only seems right that perhaps the Academy should lighten up a bit. After all, one of our most intense actors did this year and it couldn't have been better.

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Final Best Actor Predictions

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Jake Gyllenhaal Nightcrawler

Michael Keaton Birdman

David Oyelowo Selma

Eddie Redmayne The Theory of Everything

My Favorite Best Actor Performances

Ralph Fiennes The Grand Budapest Hotel

Jake Gyllenhaal Nightcrawler

Tom Hardy Locke

John Lithgow Love Is Strange

Jack O'Connell Starred Up

Have You Met the Oscar Contenders?

Over at The Film Experience, I just finished up a weekly series I've been doing since October called "Meet the Contenders". Each weekend from a newly released film, I selected an actor looking to score their first Oscar nomination and highlighted their performance. Not all of them will have a legitimate shot at even being in the running, but I really wanted to shine the light on certain actors or bring certain actors doing great work into the conversation. So, head on over and read about them all before nominations are announced on Thursday morning!

Meet the Contenders

Best Actor

Channing Tatum as Mark Schultz in Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch as Alan Turing in The Imitation Game

Oscar Isaac as Abel Morales in A Most Violent Year

David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King, Jr. in Selma

Best Actress

Rosamund Pike as Amy Dunne in Gone Girl

Felicity Jones as Jane Hawking in The Theory of Everything

Best Supporting Actor

J.K. Simmons as Fletcher in Whiplash

Sam Rockwell as Craig in Laggies

Chris Pine as Cinderella's Prince in Into the Woods

Best Supporting Actress

Emma Stone as Sam Thomson in Birdman

Rene Russo as Nina Romina in Nightcrawler

Kristen Stewart as Lydia Howland in Still Alice

Katherine Waterston as Shasta Fey Hepworth in Inherent Vice

Early Fall Predictions: Best Actor

Now that we are actually in Oscar Movie Season (the leaves are changing and adult dramas are back in the theaters again - rejoice!), I thought it would be a good time to reevaluate my predictions. That sidebar with my year in advance predictions was starting to look a little dated. (Sorry, Chadwick Boseman. I thought you were great in Get On Up - probably the best part of the entire movie - but a Best Actor nomination just is not going to happen.) And now that we've had the main film festivals (Toronto, Telluride, Venice, and New York) it seems that most of the major players have been viewed, with the top men fighting their way to the 5 spots in Best Actor.

It appears that two actors that are almost guaranteed nominations are a couple of Brits in a couple of baity biopics. Eddie Redmayne, who is already a Tony award winner and gained a little awards traction (or at least talk) a couple years ago when he played Marius in the Oscar-winning Les Misérables, seems to have taken the early frontrunner status for his transformative work as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. Playing the real-life physicist allows him to not only tackle the mimicry of a well-known figure but he also physically challenges himself as he shows the progression Hawking's body underwent as his disease left him almost entirely paralyzed. It's the sort of performance that Oscar will find hard to ignore and could bring a possible win.

Taking on another important British figure, although one not as well known, the internet's favorite actor (that bears a striking resemblance to a certain aquatic creature), Benedict Cumberbatch plays Alan Turing, the genius that successfully cracked the Enigma code, a huge step in the Allies winning WWII. But if that wasn't baity enough, Turing was later put to trial for his homosexuality, persecuted by the country that once celebrated him as a savior. Cumberbatch has been the next big thing for awhile. Although things didn't pan out for a nomination last year for the virtually forgotten The Fifth Estate, that there was talk at all for him just shows that people are eager to see him nominated. (His recent Emmy win for the beloved Sherlock certainly helps as well.) And with strong reviews for his performance, it seems he'll be making his way to a first nomination.

Another strong possibility is something of a comeback story. Michael Keaton, whose recent career hasn't exactly been as strong as it was back in his heyday of the late 80's and early 90's (Sorry, I never saw Need for Speed or the Robocop remake), seems to have found a role that could bring the veteran his first nomination. Starring in Oscar-nominated writer/director Alejandro G. Iñárritu's first foray into comedy (but it's a dark comedy), Keaton plays Riggan Thomson, an actor once known for playing a superhero now trying to mount a career-comeback on Broadway. Much has already been said about the parallels between the character and the former Batman's story (in fact, that's been most of what the early press has been about). But word is Keaton hits it out of the park with a nomination almost sure to follow.

Steve Carell may be best known as a comedian, but it seems that his against-type performance in Foxcatcher, in which the star wore a prosthetic nose (well, it worked for Nicole Kidman) and plays the real-life millionaire and murderer John du Pont, might just find his way to an Oscar nomination. That is if he doesn't lose his spot to his costar Channing Tatum said to give the performance of his career in the film. Both have had strong praise and buzz since the film debuted at Cannes back in May, but for now I'm giving the edge to Carell to secure a spot on the list. Both actors are stepping outside their comfort zone, but seeing funny man Carell play a chilling killer seems like the sort of game-changing performance the Academy would recognize.

For my fifth choice, I'm gonna go out on limb here with a film that has yet to be screened at festivals, with a relative unknown actor that's a little younger than Oscar is used to honoring. But after seeing Jack O'Connell in Starred Up this year, he has definitely emerged as a charismatic and talented actor, that seems capable of great things. With his performance in the Angelina Jolie-helmed Unbroken, playing an actual person (Louis Zamperini), who was a Olympian, WWII soldier, survived not only a plane crash but a raft stranded at sea for 47 days and a Japanese POW camp, I just have a hunch that it's a performance that will be too big to ignore. And the other names being tossed around right now (Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice is too weird, Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner seems too stuffy, Ralph Fiennes in Grand Budapest Hotel seems so long ago, and Ben Affleck in Gone Girl is just...no), they don't stand out the way O'Connell does. I think we're looking at an interesting year with some surprises and right now it's looking like a Best Actor category made up entirely of first time nominees.

My Predictions

Steve Carell Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton Birdman

Jack O'Connell Unbroken

Eddie Redmayne The Theory of Everything

My Favorite Best Actor Performances (of what I've seen so far this year)

Ralph Fiennes Grand Budapest Hotel

John Lithgow Love Is Strange

Alfred Molina Love Is Strange

Jack O'Connell Starred Up

Miles Teller Whiplash

A Year In Advance Oscar Predictions 2014: Best Actor

It's been a couple days since this past Sunday's Oscar ceremony (Congratulations Cate, Matthew, Lupita, and Jared! I would congratulate myself for predicting your wins, but literally everyone else was also predicting them) and with all the talk of Ellen's twitter-breaking selfie, the emergence of the wickedly talented new star Adele Dazeem, and Kim Novak's face, it seems that everyone was forgetting one very important thing:  who would be next year's acting nominees! But, Leto still hasn't loosened his hold on his statue since Sunday, I can hear you say. It's still warm in his hand! Do try to keep up–Oscar predictions wait for no one! All this week I'll be posting my annual Year in Advance predictions for this year's upcoming acting nominations. So, let's take a look at the fellas that will be vying to take home Best Actor a year from now!

Best Actor

Chadwick Boseman Get On Up

Steve Carrell Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Jack O'Connell Unbroken

Joaquin Phoenix Inherent Vice

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Chadwick Boseman Get On Up

The Role: After taking on the legendary Jackie Robinson in last year's 42, Boseman tackles another icon, The Godfather of Soul, James Brown. The film is the first follow-up, after the Oscar-winning The Help, for director Tate Taylor, who has been quoted as saying that he keeps forgetting to yell cut on set because Boseman is so mesmerizing in the role. 

Why He'll Be Nominated: Oscar often rewards actors for mimicking other famous personalities (it worked for Jamie Foxx in Ray and Joaquin Phoenix in Walk the Line) and James Brown is certainly a larger than life personality. Boseman, who has no experience signing and dancing previously, provides his own singing in the film and worked hard to learn Brown's fancy footwork (just as long as he got the cape exit down), which is sure to gain him points for difficulty. After the relative success of 42 (might it have had more Oscar buzz if it hadn't been released in April?) and a place upon the cover of this year's Vanity Fair Hollywood Issue alongside such Hollywood heavyweights as Julia Roberts and George Clooney (okay, so he was on the 3rd panel of the cover, but still very impressive), it seems that Boseman is becoming an actor to watch. A role as flashy as James Brown will be hard to ignore, especially if the film hits big.

Steve Carrell Foxcatcher

The Role: Carrell is a long way from Michael Scott in The Office as he plays the real-life John du Pont, a wealthy sports enthusiast that set up a wrestling training facility on his Philadelphia estate named Foxcatcher Farms. du Pont was found guilty of murder when he shot and killed one of the wrestlers that trained at his home (played by Mark Ruffalo). 

Why He'll Be Nominated: If you feel like you're experiencing dèjá vu, it's because I already predicted Carrell would be nominated for this film...last year...in Supporting. After a debut at the AFI Festival back in November that never happened, the film's release was pushed back to this year. Normally that would be a sign that all is not right with the film (ahem, Monuments Men anyone), but my confidence in it has not diminished. Mainly because the track record of director Bennett Miller in regards to Oscar has already been proven with his two previous reality-based films, Capote and Moneyball. After seeing the trailer (which they quickly pulled down), there's no question that Carrell is definitely the lead of the film and that he looks to be doing some pretty intense, dramatic work that could pay off with his first nomination. Oscar loves to honor actors that succeed in challenging themselves (see this year's win for McConaughey) and Carrell, who made a name for himself in comedy, could be looking at a career-changing performance.

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

The Role: Cumberbatch stars as the famed British mathematician, cryptographer, and computer scientist Alan Turing. He was influential in England's cracking of the Enigma codes that the Nazis used to send information during WWII. But the man that was once a hero was soon condemned by his own country when he was prosecuted for homosexuality in 1952. He dead 2 years later, days before he was to turn 42, from cyanide poisoning. 

Why He'll Be Nominated: So, last year's Oscar plans with The Fifth Estate didn't work out quite as planned, did they? But Cumberbitches, rejoice! Everyone's favorite otter-resembling, tongue-twistingly named thespian (someone please have Travolta introduce him) may be headed for his first nomination. For real, this time. The film already has the hefty support of Oscar-hungry mogul Harvey Weinstein who paid a record-breaking $7 Million for the US distribution of the film, sight unseen. If Harvey thinks it has awards potential just from looking at a promo reel, the actual film must be pretty damn good. The script was already awarded the top spot on the annual Black List back in 2010 (although that blessing certainly didn't help the Oscar outcome of this past year's Black List approved Saving Mr. Banks), so the pedigree and prestige are certainly already there. Cumberbatch, already beloved on the internet and capable of great work, seems like a perfect fit to bring Turing's complex and tragic story to the screen.

Jack O'Connell Unbroken

The Role: Unbroken is the true story of Olympic runner Louis Zamperini (O'Connell). He survived a plane crash in the Pacific, spent 47 days stranded at sea, and endured 2 and half years in a Japanese POW camp during WWII. Cue the inspirational music.

Why He'll Be Nominated: The film has some pretty impressive credentials: directed by Oscar winner Angelina Jolie, the screenplay is written by the Coen Brothers and based on the novel by Laura Hillenbrand, whose novel about Seabiscuit went on to inspire the Oscar-nominated film. With a Christmas release date and advertising for the film already starting 10 months early in a prime spot during the Winter Olympics (which thrives on inspiring human-interest stories), it seems that it's already being groomed for the next Oscar ceremony. Young British actor Jack O'Connell may not exactly be a household name (he starred as James Cook in a couple season's of the UK Skins), but he's poised to potentially hit big with his lead role in the film. Oscar tends to reward its actors when they're a little older and more seasoned, but I'm guessing that the film, and O'Connell's work in it, won't be overlooked by the Academy. 

Joaquin Phoenix Inherent Vice

The Role: Re-teaming with his director from The Master, Paul Thomas Anderson, Phoenix takes on the role of Larry "Doc" Sportello, a pot-smoking private investigator in 1969 LA that investigates the disappearance of his ex-girlfriend.

Why He'll Be Nominated: Phoenix garnered his third Oscar nomination the last time the two worked together. After this past year's strong work in the Oscar-winning Her, it seems he's really taking his place as one of our most exciting and talented actors working today. His work in those two films alone shows the versatility and range that he's capable of. This film is based on the novel of the same name by celebrated novelist Thomas Pynchon (who has never had any film adaptations of his work until now), with Anderson himself adapting the screenplay as well. Even if the film seems to be a little more light-hearted than most of Anderson's previous work (anyone else think that Phoenix is going to kill as a pothead? He already did all the research he needed with I'm Still Here), it seems safe to say that the director and his star's collaboration should be sure to grab some attention from Oscar. 

Other Possibilities: Christian Bale Exodus, Ralph Fiennes The Grand Budapest Hotel, Gael García Bernal Rosewater, Michael Keaton Birdman, Brad Pitt Fury, Timothy Spall Mr. Turner

A Guide to Best Actor 2013

With only 3 more sleeps until Oscar night, it seems I really need to finish my analysis of the acting categories. Here's a look at Best Actor.

This year's Best Actor race seemed to have received more talk about the big stars that didn't make the cut: Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips and Robert Redford in the one-man show of All is Lost, than about the ones that did. Still not sure how Hanks didn't make the final 5, particularly with an amazing scene that everyone mentions as some of his best work ever. Living legend Redford (who has only ever received one acting nomination, for The Sting) just never got the traction with his film that early buzz indicated. And although general censuses seems to agree that McConaughey will take home the gold Sunday, there seems to be a case for any of the other actors winning...except Bale. That's just not happening.

* * *

Christian Bale American Hustle

Age: 40
Previous Oscar Nominations: Bale won Best Supporting Actor the last team he teamed up with David O. Russell in The Fighter (2010)
The Role: Irving Rosenfeld, a con artist in the 1970s that is somewhat based on the real-life Melvin Weinberg and his involvement with Abscam. "He wasn't necessarily in good shape and he had this comb over that was rather...elaborate."
Why He's Here: For the longest time it seemed that the Academy was ignoring Bale. Despite great performances in American Psycho, Rescue Dawn, and all the insane amount of weight he lost in The Machinist (do NOT goggle those pictures. You will have nightmares), it just wasn't enough to receive the Academy's attention. He finally won with his first nomination and it looks like Oscar's love of David O. Russell has found its way over to Bale as well. His nomination was the biggest surprise of the 5 guys here, but it looks like his tricks of gaining and losing weight (this time gaining and herniating a disc in the process) are finally getting noticed. He also sports one of the absolute worst hairstyles in all of cinema. Which translates to praise for a lack of vanity. But, for all the physical transformation, there's not much that seems believable with the character nor Bale playing him. The accent is shaky and I just kept thinking, if they wanted a fat, bald guy why not just have cast a fat, bald guy?

Bruce Dern Nebraska

Age: 77
Previous Oscar Nominations: Dern was previously nominated once before for Best Supporting Actor in Coming Home (1978)
The Role: Dern plays Woody Grant, a man that thinks he's won a million dollars and goes on a road-trip to Nebraska with his son (Will Forte) to retrieve it. He enjoys long walks along the highway and is prone to losing his teeth along railroad tracks.
Why He's Here: God bless, Bruce Dern. I hated your movie, sir, but I'm somehow alright with this nomination because you seem like a generally nice person that is completely honored to receive it. But, make no mistake about it–Dern wanted it and he campaigned hard. Hitting every news outlet and film festival (early buzz started when he won Best Actor for the film at Cannes) and playing up the fact that he's been a great character actor for so long but never had that breakthrough role that would have made him a star like his friend Jack Nicholson, Dern charmed his way onto voter's ballots. Dern, who is known for more wild, crazy-eyed characters is pretty subdued in Nebraska. He's a man of few words and usually that word is, Huh? I can't say that I'm necessarily impressed with his work in the film which is so subdued that it borders on comatose, but there's a world-weariness to the performance that seems authentic.

Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street

Age: 39
Previous Oscar Nominations: This is the fourth acting nomination for DiCaprio. He was previously nominated for Supporting Actor for What's Eating Gilbert Grape? (1993) and Best Actor in The Aviator (2004) and Blood Diamond (2006). He has yet to win. He's also nominated this year as one of the producers on Wolf of Wall Street
The Role: The real-life Wall Street broker Jordan Belfort who created the firm Stratton Oakmont and was arrested for money laundering and securities fraud. He also had a taste for the finer things in life: hookers, blow, and Quaaludes. A lot of Quaaludes.
Why He's Here: Leo just seems like one of those people that will win an Oscar one day. I'm just not completely convinced that this is that time. After winning the Golden Globe for Best Actor...in a Musical or Comedy, which isn't really what the Academy goes for, it seemed the internet was filled with "Could Leo Win?" pieces. The film definitely has its haters that take issue with the way Jordan gets away with his crimes and how it glamorizes his hedonist lifestyle. But the film never intends to be a morality tale, but presents a story without judgement. Whatever your issues with the tone of the film (or the length), there's no denying that DiCaprio is having the time of his life in it. He's never been more exciting on film and seems to throw himself into the role with abandon. After self-serious work in films like Revolutionary Road and J.Edgar (ugh), it's a pleasant change to see this side of DiCaprio. After winning at the Golden Globes, he joked that he never thought he'd win an award for comedy, but his comedic skills were on full display in the film. Particularly the scene in which he is so hopped up on so many Quaaludes that even trying to get to his car is a laborious effort. It was one of my favorite moments in film of the past year and if his efforts result in a win Oscar night, I wouldn't complain.

Chiwetel Ejiofor 12 Years a Slave

Age: 36
Previous Oscar Nominations: This is his first nomination
The Role: The British Ejiofor plays Solomon Northup, a free man in New York that was kidnapped and sold into slavery in rural Louisiana in the 1840's. Northup wrote about his true story for the book published in 1868 that the film is based on, which will soon be be taught in schools.
Why He's Here: It seemed for the longest time that Ejiofor was always just on the verge of a bigger break. He's been one of those actors that the media hypes as the next big thing, but the films he was in (although, great) never really panned out in making him a star. But his skills as an actor have never been in question. He has 5 Golden Globe Nominations, an Olivier award for his performance in Othello in the West End, and was honored with the OBE (Order of the British Empire) by the Queen for services to the arts. With his work in 12 Years a Slave, it seems that audiences (and the Academy) have finally caught up with him. And his performance in the film (which recently won him a BAFTA award) is perhaps the crowning achievement in a long line of accomplishments. So much happens surrounding Northup that Ejiofor knows that just being present and engaged is almost enough. But within his face is written the struggle and endurance and, despite it all, the hope that his nightmare will end. He is a powerful presence on screen, but the key to his survival is bringing a calm to that inner tempest while still allowing us as an audience to see the fire burn in his eyes.

Matthew McConaughey Dallas Buyers Club

Age: 44
Previous Oscar Nominations: Can you believe this is his first nomination? None for Failure to Launch? (But, seriously, he should've been nominated for Magic Mike.)
The Role: As the homophobic, HIV positive Ron Woodroof, McConaughey lost 40 pounds to play the real-life man. Woodroof sought non-FDA approved HIV medications and sold them to other people suffering from the disease in the 1980's.
Why He's Here: One word: McConaissance. The man once known for his golden bod (let's not forget the naked bongo drum playing) and the go-to leading man for every formulaic romantic comedy is now being taken seriously as an actor. After winning the Golden Globe, SAG, and countless other awards, he is also the frontrunner to win an Oscar. Over the past years, it seems that McConaughey has actively sought out roles and films that challenge or excite him. This year alone, in addition to his Oscar-nominated role, he received praise in Mud and The Wolf of Wall Street, showing that he really is stepping up his game as a respected actor. And his turn in Dallas Buyers Club is the sort of role that attracts the Academy's attention. In the film, the sight of such a gaunt McConaughey is almost too shocking to watch. His commitment to the role in full display in his weight lose. But, the film never really connected for me and as good as it is to see McConaughey challenge himself, the performance never really astonishes in the way his physical appearance does.

Will Win: Alright, alright, alright. It's McConaughey for the win
Should Win: That one is tougher to call. I would say Ejiofor or DiCaprio

My Year in Advance Oscar Predictions 2013: How'd I Do?

I have an annual tradition. Every year, the day after the Oscar ceremony (while the winners are still tightly clutching their new golden guy from the night before), I predict who will be nominated for acting Oscars the following year. It's actually not as hard to predict as it may sound. There are just certain roles and people that naturally lend themselves to awards recognition. So, now that the nominees have been announced, let's gaze back into my crystal ball and see just how well I was at predicting the nominees an entire year in advance.

Don't look so forlorn, Bruce. You may have lost your teeth in the film, but you found a nomination.

Best Actor

My Year in Advance Predictions: 

Bruce Dern Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey Dallas Buyers Club

The Actual Nominees:

Christian Bale American Hustle

Bruce Dern Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey Dallas Buyers Club

How Many Correctly Guessed: 4/5

Damn that Christian Bale! Damn him, I say! He stood in my way of correctly predicting all 5 of the Best Actor nominees. But, in my defense, it really did look like Hanks was in. No one was even predicting Bale even a few weeks ago, let alone a year ago. I guess the lesson I need to learn now is that David O. Russell gets actors nominations. His past 3 films (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, and American Hustle) have earned 11 nominations in the acting categories (and 3 wins). Of all my years doing this (before my blog I would e-mail my picks to my friends), this is the best I've ever predicted. I really was so close to getting all 5 correct. Looking back, I still would've put Hanks over Bale as Bale just won recently and Hanks is beloved in Hollywood and hasn't been nominated since 2000 for Cast Away. And if someone asked me if I would have predicted that Matthew McConaughey would be an Oscar nominee (and front-runner for the win) about 3 years ago, I would have laughed in their face. But such is the McConeissance (which, if you ask me, should have been the real word of 2013 instead of twerking). Alright, alright, alright.

"You know, I learned a very important lesson this year: not every biopic gets nominated. I guess the film has to actually be good as well..."

Best Actress

My Year in Advance Predictions:

Nicole Kidman Grace of Monaco

Julia Roberts August: Osage County

Meryl Streep August: Osage County

Naomi Watts Diana

Kate Winslet Labor Day

The Actual Nominees:

Amy Adams American Hustle

Cate Blanchett Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock Gravity

Judi Dench Philomena

Meryl Streep August: Osage County

How Many Correctly Guessed: 1.5/5 

(The half point is for Roberts who did get nominated...in Supporting)

I've said it once and I'll say it again: Never doubt an Oscar Nomination for Meryl Streep. Like death and paying taxes, it's just one of those inevitable things. And thank god she actually got in here otherwise I wouldn't have correctly predicted anyone (don't worry, that's coming up shortly). For my favorite category, I don't always do so well with predictions here. I think because I choose actresses that  I personally love over one's that will necessarily garner nominations. I would never predict Sandy Bullock getting awards for acting, but here she is a winner and receiving her second nomination. There are also women that I always end up choosing (Kidman, Winslet, and Keira Knightley–when is that second nomination gonna happen already?!) that the Academy don't seem to love as much as I do. I need to stop predicting Nicole Kidman for the simple fact that she never films things she signs on for or, like with this film, the release gets pushed back. After it was announced that the November release date was being pushed back until the spring of this year, it was not a good sign for Grace. Then, this week, it was dropped from the Weinstein Company's schedule all together...because it had been chosen as the opening film at the Cannes Film Festival. That's a roller coaster of release dates. But now that it will officially be released this year, I'm still not betting on it. And will Kate Winslet ever receive another nomination again? (I haven't seen Labor Day yet, but it's not looking so good.) It seems once she won they shoved her out the door. But, most importantly, what about Naomi Watts in Diana, you ask? Well, the less said about it the better...

Stop laughing at me, Jonah! Is there ANYONE that could've predicted you'd have TWO Oscar nominations?!?

Best Supporting Actor:

My Year in Advance Predictions:

Javier Bardem The Counselor

Josh Brolin Labor Day

Steve Carrell Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch The Fifth Estate

Joaquin Phoenix Lowlife

The Actual Nominees:

Barkhad Abdi Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper American Hustle

Michael Fassbender 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club

How Many Correctly Guessed: 0/5

Not only was I unable to predict any of the eventual nominees in this category, but all my choices were so spectacularly bad it's almost laughable. Let's recap: two films that weren't even released this year (Foxcatcher was supposed to be, then it wasn't, then it was going to be released in time for awards season, and then it eventually was rescheduled for this year sometime. And Lowlife played some film festivals with the new title The Immigrant, but again it's release date seems uncertain. IMDB is telling me sometime in April) and then we have three legitimate bombs. The Counselor was on countless worst of the year lists, but I don't even remember anyone mentioning Bardem at all in it. So he got off lucky. Labor Day has also popped up on some of those same lists and it sure didn't help its chances that it still hasn't even been released yet. (It had a week-long qualifying run in LA, so it was eligible for Oscars this year, but that just didn't happen.) And then we have The Fifth Estate. Last year, I had debated on whether or not to put Cumberbatch in the lead or supporting category, but it turns out the film was so bad that it didn't really matter at all! 

"Have sex with a car, they said. Do a crazy accent, they said. You're sure to get an Oscar nomination. What was I thinking?"

Best Supporting Actress

My Year in Advance Predictions:

Cate Blanchett The Monuments Men

Cameron Diaz The Counselor

Margo Martindale August: Osage County

Emma Thompson Saving Mr. Banks

Oprah Winfrey The Butler

The Actual Nominees:

Sally Hawkins Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence American Hustle

Lupita Nyong'o 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts August: Osage County

June Squibb Nebraska

How Many Correctly Guessed: 1 0/5 (no Oprah?!)

Remember how I said Bardem got off easy with The Counselor? Well, the same cannot be said of Cameron Diaz who was continually singled out as the worst part of the movie (especially for the scene where she has sex with a car). Rumor has it that she also had to re-record all her dialogue because the Rihanna-like accent she used during filming was too hard to understand. Oh, Cammie D. I like that you keep trying. Hopefully one day it will work out for you. For awhile there, it looked like Emma Thompson and Oprah were actually going to be nominated, but it just wasn't meant to be. Emma ended up in the lead category anyway and Julia Roberts (an actual lead) made her way to this category thus taking away any chances that Margo Martindale had of being nominated. Do I get any points for correctly predicting that Cate Blanchett would get a nomination this year? True, it was in the wrong category and for a movie that got its release date pushed to the wasteland that is February, but it might still count for something. I think the biggest disappointment is that, despite a SAG nomination and being predicted by most pundits, the one and only Oprah failed to get a nomination for Lee Daniels' The Butler. That's the second year in a row that an actress in one of his movies has been shut out in this category despite scoring a SAG nom. I would feel sorry for her if she wasn't so wildly wealthy and successful already.

Make sure you check back on March 3 to see who I predict for Oscar Nominations in 2014!