This time last year, J. K. Simmons came out of the gate strong when Whiplash debuted at Sundance and his inevitable march to victory went mostly unchallenged the entire year. (He was the only prediction I guessed correctly last year. But if you get one right, might as well be the winner!) One of the most talked about performances out of Sundance this year was Jason Segel's performance as Infinite Jest author David Foster Wallace in The End of the Tour, but I've ultimately left him off my predictions because of category confusion. The film focuses on Jesse Eisenberg as a magazine reporter working on a story about Wallace, so Segel's work could be seen as co-lead or supporting. I couldn't think who he could bump off from either list, so put him as a possibility outside of the five here. We'll have to see if is early buzz is enough to breakthrough. The five men I ultimately decided on are all from strong Best Picture contenders, with only two of the actors previous nominees. There's no frontrunner winner, like with Simmons. So for now, we'll just have to theorize how these actors could find themselves with Oscar nominations for their work this year.
* * *
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hardy The Revenant
Samuel L. Jackson The Hateful Eight
Liam Neeson Silence
Édgar Ramírez Joy
Seth Rogen Steve Jobs
Tom Hardy The Revenant
Hardy from "Lawless" Judging from the first pic from Leo in "The Revenant", Hardy will be much more bearded
The Role: Hardy plays John Fitzgerald a real-life frontiersman in the American West during the 1820s. While on a fur trading expedition with the film's protagonist Hugh Glass (Leonardo DiCaprio), Glass was mauled and wounded by a bear. Believing him to be dead, Fitzgerald and his fellow travelers left Glass behind. Glass survived the attack and traveled more than 200 miles to seek revenge against Fitzgerald.
Samuel L. Jackson The Hateful Eight
The Role: Teaming up with writer/director Quentin Tarantino for their sixth film together, Jackson plays Major Marquis Warren aka The Bounty Hunter. Taking place just after the Civil War, Jackson's character was in the Union Calvary during the war and became known for burning Confederates during a prison escape. He along with other bounty hunters and ruffians (I don't know, there may be 8 of them) are trapped together in a stagecoach rest stop during a blizzard when murders begin happening among them...
Why He'll Be Nominated: Jackson might be the actor with the highest grossing film total of all time, but he has only been nominated once for an Oscar - for 1994's Pulp Fiction, a role that Tarantino wrote specifically for the actor. Many thought that Jackson should have been nominated for his work in the last film he and Tarantino did together, Django Unchained. But co-star Christoph Waltz ended up with the supporting nom (even though he was clearly a lead) and ended up winning. This film has had a rocky start after the script was leaked online and Tarantino canceling production because of it. But after a live reading and some script adjustments, Tarantino changed his mind and the film was back on for a November 13th release date. With a cast that includes Kurt Russell, Channing Tatum, Bruce Dern, and Tim Roth, to name a few, it might be hard to stand out from the ensemble. But I'm counting on Tarantino regular Jackson, in another tailor-made role, to emerge as the film's MVP.
Liam Neeson Silence
The Role: Set in 17th century Japan, Neeson plays Father Ferreira, a Jesuit priest in a Japanese missionary that was a mentor to the film's main character, Father Rodrigues (played by Andrew Garfield). The young priest has come to Japan because of a rumor that Ferreira has renounced his faith, but encounters persecution of Christians in the country.
Why He'll Be Nominated: In the past couple of years, Neeson has redefined his career and experienced a surge in popularity with his work kicking ass in action films, like the Taken trilogy. Sometimes it can be hard to remember that Neeson is a great actor and even received an Oscar nomination for Schindler's List. Teaming up with Scorsese again (he also appeared in the director's Gangs of New York) might just be the vehicle he needs to remind us all of his skills as an actor. The part doesn't seem like it'll be that much screen time, but it was once set to star Daniel Day-Lewis - an actor that works so infrequently that certainly he wouldn't have considered it unless it was of significance. (Interestingly, Day-Lewis actually took over the part of President Lincoln once intended for Neeson. Both actors had to drop out of the respective films because they took too many years to develop.) Silence is filming now so hopefully it will be ready in time for this year and here's also hoping that Neeson's work will be worthy of being recognized by the Academy.
Édgar Ramírez Joy
Obviously not from the film, but for some reason the paparazzi aren't following him on set like J. Law...
The Role: The Golden Globe and Emmy nominee (for the miniseries Carlos), the Venezuelan actor plays Tony Miranne, a fellow classmate of Lawrence's Joy. The two eventually married and had three children, but Miranne later divorced her.
Why He'll Be Nominated: Ramírez might not be as famous as his fellow co-stars Lawrence, De Niro, and Bradley Cooper, but he's just as talented and hopefully this film will be able to take his career to the next level and grab Oscar's attention. It was hard to choose which of Joy's men would make my prediction (De Niro plays Joy's father, Cooper is a HSN executive), but the Academy loves when actresses play long suffering wives, so why not recognize the man behind the successful woman. I'm not sure of the timeline of their relationship in the film, but I'm guessing that Miranne probably leaves Joy when her success threatens his masculinity...Judging from the track record of the past couple David O. Russell films, it's a safe bet that one of three men in this film will be recognized in this category. And Ramírez was suggested for the part by De Niro himself (the two worked together on a boxing film set to also come out this year, Hands of Stone), so he already has one fan in the Academy. If the part is interesting and not as thankless and dull as poor Jeremy Renner's good guy among the crazies of American Hustle, Ramírez could be looking at his first nomination.
Seth Rogen Steve Jobs
The Role: In a departure for the comedic actor, Rogen plays Steve Wozniak, one of the co-founders of Apple, Inc. and the creator of the company's first computers, which he designed single-handedly.
Why He'll Be Nominated: Perhaps getting jealous that friend Jonah Hill was getting attention from the Academy with two performances honored with nominations, it seems that Rogen decided to temporarily leave behind the frat boy humor and take a part in a dramatic film with an Oscar-winning director. It seems like a safe assumption that of all the nominees I predicted in this category that Rogen is the most likely to end up with a nomination next January. It just feels right. Oscar likes to reward actors that step outside of their comfort zone and it seems that Rogen as Woz is enough of a stretch tonally to do that (but still I have a feeling he'll still be a source of humor for the film).
Other Possibilities: Bradley Cooper Joy, Robert De Niro Joy, Jason Segel The End of the Tour, Ken Watanabe The Sea of Trees, Forest Whitaker Southpaw
I'm just starting to whittle through the long list of possibilities, and Rogen is at the top of my list right now. Like you said, it just feels right.
ReplyDeletethis category always seems the hardest to do this early because there's no telling the size or substance of the role yet, but rogen definitely seems like he'll make it all the way.
DeleteI'm really excited about all these movies. This is gonna be a good year. I'm especially interested in seeing how Seth Rogen pans out in Steve Jobs. Really cool casting there.
ReplyDeleteyeah, it should be interesting to see rogen acting against fassbender and winslet. not normally actors he works, but it's a dynamic that should be fun to watch.
Deleteof these 5 performances, i think i'm most eager to see tom hardy