Wednesday, February 27, 2013

A Year In Advance Oscar Predictions 2013: Best Actress

Boy, I did not do very well in this category last year. The only one I predicted that got nominated was Helen Hunt and they went and put her in Supporting. I need to stop predicting Keira Knightley. If they didn't nominate her for Anna Karenina–it's just not gonna happen for her. But, that was last year and this year brings some Aussies playing princess and La Streep in what one can safely assume will bring her 18th(!) Oscar nomination.
Best Actress
Nicole Kidman Grace of Monaco
Julia Roberts August: Osage County
Meryl Streep August: Osage County
Naomi Watts Diana
Kate Winslet Labor Day

Look into my eyes...I AM Grace Kelly
Nicole Kidman Grace of Monaco
The Role: Best Actress Oscar winner, Kidman, plays Best Actress Oscar winner, Grace Kelly. Rather than a biopic that spans the entire life of the movie star turned princess, the film focuses on the early 60's when Kelly was a new monarch to the principality and intervenes with her husband Prince Rainier (Tom Roth) and Charles de Gaulle of France regarding the tax laws of Monaco. The film is being directed by Olivier Dahan who directed Marion Cotillard to an Oscar win for La Vie en Rose.
Why Her: Sometimes I let my love for Nicole cloud my judgement regarding her Oscar chances. Last year, I predicted her for a movie that was not only not released, but wasn't even made in the first place. That's the other thing with Nicole, she commits and drops out of projects all the time. I could do an entire post about it (maybe I will...). But, this film is actually made! There's photographic evidence to prove it! And it's scheduled for a late 2013 release–the perfect time for Oscar. 
There was awhile in the mid 00's were everyone decided that they didn't like Nicole anymore (was it Bewitched or the botox?), but recent years have brought another nom for Rabbit Hole and an almost nom for last year's bat-shit crazy The Paperboy. I think it's safe to say, all is forgiven. I have the feeling that Kidman playing an actress as well-known and admired as Grace Kelly will be too perfect to resist.

Julia Roberts August: Osage County
The Role: Three-time Oscar nominee (and Best Actress winner), Roberts, plays the eldest daughter, Barbara, in the Weston family. It's based on the Tony and Pulitzer prize winning play of the same name. The play concerns a family in Oklahoma who's father goes missing. When the family comes together sparks fly as Barbara tries to keep everything together while dealing with her verbally abusive, pill-addicted mother (Streep). Although Streep has the more showy role, it's Robert's role that is the actual lead and heart of the story. 
Why Her: I go through phases of admiration for Roberts. Of course I love her in Pretty Woman and Erin Brockovich. She may not be a versatile performer, but no one brings a believability while bringing huge movie stardom the way she does. But, then I see her in dreck like Eat, Pray, Love and wonder what it is I like about her again. But, I really have confidence that she can pull this role off (true a more natural choice would have been Laura Linney or Amy Ryan) in  way that no one else could. Plus, going head-to-head with Greatest Actress in the History of the World, Streep, is a job only a movie star of her caliber can take on without being eaten alive.

Meryl Streep August: Osage County
The Role: Violet Weston, the acid-tongued matriarch of the family who has recently suffered from mouth cancer and is now forming an addiction to pills. She is extremely combative and critical of her family, especially oldest daughter Barbara (Roberts).
Why Her: Um, do I really need to fill this out? The woman has 17 nominations and 3 wins. She's the most nominated actor of all time and the closest is Kate Hepburn and Jack Nicholson at a distant 12 noms each. If Streep is in anything remotely Oscary–she's getting nominated. And this role was a huge awards magnet, winning the Best Actress Tony for actress Deanna Dunagan. 

"Biopic–Check. Beloved icon–Check. Oscar nom–Duh. Man, why didn't I do this sooner?"
Naomi Watts Diana
The Role: Playing the part of Diana: Princess of Wales, the film focuses on the last 2 years of Diana's life after her divorce from Prince Charles, her campaign to stop land mines,  her relationship and wish to marry Dr. Hasnat Khan (Lost's Naveen Andrew), and her death in a car accident with Dodi Fayed.
Why Her: The word most often used to describe Watts as an actress is: fearless. From her dual role in her breakthrough (and what should have been her first Oscar nomination) in David Lynch's Mulholland Drive to her Oscar nominated performances as suffering mothers in 21 Grams and lat year's The Impossible, Watts dives in full-force not afraid to expose herself emotionally or go to dark places. Even if the film itself doesn't work, I think the fact that Watts was fearless enough to take on such an iconic role as Diana will reward her with a nom. And she's the only one of my predicted 5 not to win, so perhaps this is the role that brings her gold...

Look, it was just cheaper to use my costumes from Little Children
Kate Winslet Labor Day
The Role: Oscar nominated director Jason Reitman (Juno, Up in the Air) directs 6-time Oscar nominated actress, Winslet, in her first cinematic lead role since her Oscar winning performance in The Reader back in 2008. The film stars Winslet as agoraphobic, depressed, divorced mother Adele in the 80's who after being talked into going out for a drive with her son, picks up a bloody man (Josh Brolin) looking for a ride (cause that sounds like a good idea). He turns out to be an escaped convict, but I'm sure a romance blossoms despite the impossible odds...
Why Her: Once considered the greatest actress of her generation, she got a case of the Annie Hathaway-hate game post Oscar win. The media that once celebrated her and demanded she have an Oscar suddenly felt like she was too needy and desperate for it. To avoid the media's hatred, she took herself out of the spotlight, appearing only in the HBO miniseries (and Emmy awarding winning role) Mildred Pierce and supporting roles in Carnage and Contagion over the past 5 years. But, I think enough time has passed and we've (well, certainly, I have) been ready for Kate to tackle another complex role in an adult drama. Pairing up with Reitman, who got great performances out of Ellen Page in Juno and Charlize Theron in Young Adult seems like a smart move as well. She's always been an actress that challenges herself and a nom here would be a way of welcoming back one of our best.

Other Contenders: Sandra Bullock Gravity, Marion Cotillard Lowlife, Julie Delpy Before Midnight, Jennifer Lawrence Serena, Amanda Seyfried Lovelace


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