Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem The Counselor
Josh Brolin Labor Day
Steve Carrell Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch The Fifth Estate
Joaquin Phoenix Lowlife
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| Villain + Crazy Hair=Oscar |
Javier Bardem The Counselor
The Role: Pulitzer Prize winner Cormac McCarthy's first original screenplay is being directed by three-time Best Director Oscar nominee, Ridley Scott. The story is set along the US/Mexico border (and for anyone familiar with McCarthy's work, that shouldn't come as a surprise) and follows a Counselor (the attorney is played by Michael Fassbender) who wants in on a big payday, so he teams up with Reiner (Bardem), a wealthy business acquaintance in Mexico, to unload $20 million worth of cocaine. The part of Reiner is considered the showiest of the male roles and was apparently pursued by both Jeremy Renner and Brad Pitt as well (Pitt is now a different supporting part in the film). The script was leaked online, so if you do some digging you can probably find it. I personally haven't read it, but according to those who have, Reiner has pet cheetahs. So, yeah.
Why Him: The three-time Oscar nominee (and Best Supporting Actor winner for No Country for Old Men–based on Cormac McCarthy's book) certainly knows his way around a villain. His performance in last year's Bond film Skyfall generated Oscar talk and even brought a SAG nomination. Which, let's face it, was the only time anyone's seriously considered a Bond performance for an Oscar. Bardem is also one of my favorite actors, so I tend to mark him down for nominations. I predicted him two years in a row for a Best Actor nom for Biutiful. Usually if a film isn't released the year it's supposed to, I just give up (like with Garrett Hedlund in On the Road), but something about the power of Bardem made me trust that he'd get a nom. Which he did, but that's mostly due to Julia Roberts. Hopefully his performance will stand on it's own and he'll be rewarded with another nomination. Uh, did I mention the cheetahs?!?
Josh Brolin Labor Day
The Role: The former Best Supporting Actor nominee (Milk), joins Kate Winslet in Jason Reitman's film adaptation of Joyce Maynard's Labor Day. Brolin plays a mysterious stranger named Frank, who turns out to be an escaped convict, that enters into the life of Winslet's character. He has a profound affect on her and and her son's lives.
Why Him: Like Winslet, Brolin hasn't been nominated since 2008. But he has the potential to have a very good 2013. In addition to Labor Day (which is really the only film that seems like it would bring a nomination), he also stars in Spike Lee's version of the Korean film Oldboy and is the lead in the sequel to the popular Sin City. Being successful at the box office certainly helps with your Oscar chances (I have a feeling that The Hunger Games had a lot to do with J. Law's win this year). And working with Reitman and Winslet, who are no strangers to Oscar, is definitely a good sign.
Steve Carrell Foxcatcher
The Role: Comedian Steve Carrell takes on the dramatic role of John du Pont. Based on a true story, du Pont was a millionaire and sports enthusiast who set up a wrestling facility on his estate, Foxcatcher Farm. The film concerns the murder of Olympic wrestler Dave Schultz (Mark Ruffalo) whom du Pont shot in his driveway. It was later determined that he was a paranoid schizophrenic. Bennett Miller (Oscar nominee for Capote) directs.
Why Him: This is the first of 2 nominees I have predicted that could go either way in Supporting or Lead. There's no doubt that it sounds like a juicy role–the kind that leads to an Oscar nomination. But, I've put him in Supporting because, from what I've heard, the film is based on the memoir by Dave Schultz's brother Mark (Channing Tatum) and the story is told from his point of view. So, in terms of story, Tatum would be Lead. But, like I said, we'll have to wait and see.
Carrell, who was Emmy nominated 6 times (and never won!) for his role on television's The Office, has already broken out of his small-screen roots with the hit comedies 40-Year-Old Virgin, Anchorman, and others. But, this role would be a big departure for him. True, he's done well in roles that aren't necessarily comedic like the gay, suicidal uncle in Oscar nominated Little Miss Sunshine and got great reviews for Dan in Real Life in which he fall's in love with his brother's girlfriend. But those films were still technically comedies. This will really be the time for him to show his chops as a dramatic actor. But, Oscar isn't always impressed (see Jim Carrey. Man, he really wanted a nomination there for a while). But Bennett Miller has directed 4 actors to noms, including a who-woulda-thought nom for raunchy-humor-enthusiast, Jonah Hill, in Moneyball. If it can happen for him, I have a feeling that Carrell shouldn't be too far behind.
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| "If this whole WikiLeaks thing doesn't work, I can always join an albino grunge band..." |
Benedict Cumberbatch The Fifth Estate
The Role: In what's being called this year's The Social Network (cause, you know, everything has to be like something else. Who wants something original?!), British actor Benedict Cumberbatch (BBC's Sherlock) stars at WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. The film (being directed by Dreamgirls and Kinsey director and Oscar winning writer of Gods and Monsters, Bill Condon) focuses on the relationship between Assange and one of his early supporters, Daniel Domscheit-Berg (Inglorious Basterd's Daniel Bruhl), who begins to question the tactics Assange uses to gain his information.
Why Him: I've already received a comment saying that Cumberbatch is lead. I don't know if they've read the script or not–I haven't, but there are a couple reasons I decided to place him in supporting. The first being that Dreamworks (the studio releasing the film) has a synopsis that states the film is "through the eyes of Daniel Domscheit-Berg". The film is also based on a book that he wrote. Although Assange is the showcase role, it sounds like the real lead of the film is Domscheit-Berg. The other reason is: I like to be right. These predictions are for fun and me really trying to get as many correct as possible. If Cumberbatch gets a lead nomination, I can still say I predicted him (shut up–it still counts!) Also, I debated putting him in Lead, but I couldn't see him being chosen over the 5 I already picked. But, (already the new crush of the internet) Cumberbatch is very much the hot, new star and this role seems, in all likelihood, to be the breakout role that will take him to the next level of A-List dramatic actor. He's this year's Michael Fassbender (although, poor Fassy lost out on his nomination). In addition, he's also set to break out as a movie star with his under-wraps role in the sure-to-be-big Star Trek: Into Darkness. And supporting roles in August: Osage County and Twelve Years a Slave sure couldn't hurt. Whether it's in Lead or Supporting, Benedict Cumberbatch is gonna be on the lips of Oscar voters. Plus, it's just fun to say...
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| "Ever hear of Dita Von Teese? Yeah, I discovered her, too. Would I lie?" |
Joaquin Phoenix Lowlife
The Role: The fourth collaboration between three time Oscar nominee, Joaquin Phoenix, and director James Gray (Two Lovers, We Own the Night) centers around a new immigrant to New York in the early 1900's (played by Marion Cotillard) who is tricked into a life of burlesque by Phoenix's character, Bruno Weiss. Jeremy Renner plays Phoenix's cousin, a magician that helps Cotillard break out of her situation.
Why Him: Despite calling awards "bullshit" in Interview magazine, Phoenix still managed to land a nomination for last year's The Master. And the reason is pretty simple: he's an acting force of nature. His role in The Master was one of the most brilliant that I saw last year. It was so raw and intense that it made me uncomfortable to watch, but you couldn't look away. And shouldn't acting awards (which, really, yeah, are kinda bullshit. But, the best kind!!) be about the the performance, in the first place? Phoenix received a lot of praise for the last film he and Gray did together (Two Lovers). And the fact that he's playing a villainous role will really help him showcase some more of that intensity that he's known for. So, in spite of his best efforts, I think we can expect to see Phoenix reluctantly seated at the Dolby Theater next year.
Other Contenders: Will Forte Nebraska, James Franco Spring Breakers, Jonah Hill The Wolf of Wall Street, Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club, Mark Ruffalo Foxcatcher
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