Monday, March 4, 2013

A Year in Advance Oscar Predictions 2013: Best Supporting Actress

This was my best category last year. I correctly predicted 3.5 out of 5. (Adams, Hathaway, and Field are the 3. Helen Hunt is the half because I predicted her in Lead. The only one I got completely wrong was Annette Bening in the Kristen Wiig-starring, Imogen. It's coming out this summer and now being called Girl Most Likely. I tend to get excited for Bening since she acts in so little. I mean, I even predicted her for a Supporting nom for The Women back in the day. And if you've seen it you, you'll know how off that was...) This year there's no sure bets. We have a return to acting for a certain former talk show host (you're getting a car!). Two of my favorite actresses could be making their way back to Oscar after their last nominations in 2007 and 1995! A never-nominated movie star could find her first nomination. As well as a character actress that fell on the stairs to get her award long before J. Law made it cool...

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett The Monuments Men
Cameron Diaz The Counselor
Margo Martindale August: Osage County
Emma Thompson Saving Mr. Banks
Oprah Winfrey The Butler

Cate Blanchett The Monuments Men
The Role: I don't know! But, the film is being directed by Oscar winner, George Clooney, and is about an assembled group of art historians and museum curators in the 1940's trying to rescue priceless works of art before Hitler and the Nazi's destroy them. Basically it's The Avengers for the art house set. The ensemble also includes Clooney himself, Daniel Craig, Matt Damon, Bill Murray, John Goodman, and Best Actor Oscar winner, Jean Dujardin. Cate is the Scarlett Johansson of the group. Although, I think it's safe to assume that her art historian character won't be wearing a leather catsuit...
Why Her: This Best Supporting Actress winner (and 5 time nominee) hasn't received a nomination since her double-nominated year in 2007. And nothing she's been in since then has exactly screamed Oscar, having chosen to go more action-adventure (Indiana Jones, Robin Hood, The Hobbit) than prestige. But, her natural ability to marry the technicalities of the craft with raw talent and emotion has earned her a reputation as the actress most likely to be the new Meryl Streep. And even Streep had a dry spell with Oscar in the early 90's (She-Devil anyone?). And with the slate of new projects Blanchett has lined up, including two Terrence Malick films and Woody Allen's latest, Blue Jasmine, it seems that the actress is ready to rack up some more nominations. Her best bet seems to be this film, which seems like the type of high-brow thing Oscar voters gravitate towards. 

Real Housewife of Border-Town Mexico
Cameron Diaz The Counselor
The Role: Malkina, the femme fatale, in the Ridley Scott-directed, Cormac McCarthy-scripted film. Her character is the lover of Reiner (Javier Bardem) and, apparently, highly sexual and mysterious (well, obviously). If you go to the message board on imdb, everyone who has read the script talks about how this is the best part in the film. At one point Angelina Jolie was attached to play it. 
Why Her: No, you didn't misread the name. That Cameron Diaz. It's been a long time since the four-time Golden Globe nominated actress has challenged herself in a Being John Malkovich or Vanilla Sky and has contented herself for being one of Hollywood's highest paid actresses in popcorn-fare like Knight and Day and Bad Teacher. In fact, at this point, it seems Jennifer Lopez has a better shot at being nominated. But, early word is that Diaz nails the part, standing out in a film that includes Bardem,  Brad Pitt, Michael Fassbender, and Penelope Cruz. It's looking very likely that we'll have to start addressing her as Oscar nominee, Cameron Diaz. 

Margo Martindale August: Osage County 
The Role: The Emmy-award-winning actress of Justified, plays Mattie Fae Aiken, the sister to Meryl Streep's character. In a large cast of supporting characters being played by Oscar nominees Juliette Lewis and Abigail Breslin, Oscar winner Chris Cooper (playing Martindale's husband), and British thespians Ewan McGregor and Benedict Cumberbatch (playing Martindale's son), the role of Mattie Fae really stands out from the others. She is definitely a source of comic relief as the larger-than-life aunt. The role brought a Tony to actress Randi Reed when it was on Broadway and Martindale really does seem like perfect casting for the part.
Why Her: The Supporting categories weren't created until the 9th Oscar ceremony so that character actors and supporting players wouldn't have to compete against movie stars for awards. Nominating an actress like Margo Martindale, a character actress making her career in supporting roles, is the reason this category exists. She may not be recognizable by name alone, but whenever she pops up on screen like as Julianne Moore's babysitter in The Hours, or as Hilary Swank's mother in Million Dollar Baby, or, most memorably, in Alexander Payne's segment in Paris, je t'aime, there is instant familiarity and you think to yourself, 'oh, her. I like her'. Perhaps her work in August: Osage County will be the thing to bring the recognition of an Oscar nomination.

"Yes, Mary Poppins is fiction. I am not her. Now, has anyone seen my magical flying umbrella that talks?"
Emma Thompson Saving Mr. Banks
The Role: Based on the real-life story of bringing Mary Poppins to the screen, Best Actress (and Best Screenplay) winner, Emma Thompson, plays P.L. Travers, the Australian author of the books the popular film was adapted from. Travers fought with Walt Disney (played by Tom Hanks) about the way the story was being portrayed–particularly the animated segment, which she felt was too saccharine. The film also flashes back to her childhood in Australia where she grew up with a hard-nosed father (Colin Farrell) who became the inspiration for the no-nonsense patriarch of the books, Mr. Banks.
Why Her: The go-to thinking-man's actress of the 90's hasn't received a nomination since her Best Actress nom and Best Adapted Screenplay win for 1995's Sense and Sensibility. It seems about time that she's welcomed back into the fold. As a writer herself, the role seems like a good fit for her and just the sort of true-life story that gets nominated. The part could, most likely, go lead. In which case, I could see her bumping off Julia Roberts in my predicted five there. But, the addition of flashback and the parts showing the team at Disney (including Jason Schwartzman and B.J. Novak playing Mary Poppins songwriters, the Sherman Brothers) creating the film makes me think that there's a good case for it to feel more like an ensemble. Frankly, I just want Thompson to get another nomination. It's a shame that Meryl Streep is casting director's only choice for good roles for women over 50 (she was apparently in talks to even play this role), so I'm just excited to see Thompson given the chance to tackle what sounds like an interesting role. But, a fifth acting Oscar nomination sure couldn't hurt...

Yep, Lenny Kravitz is in this as well. 
Oprah Winfrey The Butler
The Role: Director Lee Daniels (Precious, The Paperboy), brings to the screen the based-on-a-true-story tale of a White House butler who served under eight presidents. Oprah, in her first big-screen acting role since 1998's Beloved, stars as the wife, Gloria Gaines, to the titular butler (Oscar winner, Forest Whitaker). The film also boasts an all-star cast which includes Robin Williams as Eisenhower, James Marsden as JFK, John Cusak as Nixon, Alan Rickman as Reagan, and Jane Fonda as Nancy Reagan. 
Why Her: Because she's OOoooooOOpppPPPrRRRRaaAAAAHHHH!!! Before she was the most influential person on television, champion of literary works, philanthropist, and famous enough to just be known by simply her first name, Winfrey was a Best Supporting Actress nominee in The Color Purple. If anyone has watched her talk show, they know that in addition to her crusade to find the best you, she loves the movies–and Oscar in particular. She even held her show on the Oscar stage the day after the ceremony for many years, talking to the 4 acting winners. It seems like a safe bet to say that she would like to win one herself. She had even wanted to play Viola Davis's Oscar-nominated part in Doubt. But because the part is so small and Oprah being such a known personality, director John Patrick Shanley felt that it would take the audience out of the film. That shouldn't be the case with The Butler where it seems everyone has shown up for a small role. And with The Butler, Winfrey is playing a role that Oscar loves to nominate in this category: the supportive/suffering wife (just look at Adams, Field, and Weaver from just last year). Now that she's no longer in America's home daily, it seems that she'll be able to disappear into the role (well, as much as she can) and maybe even get that second nomination. If it doesn't happen, I have a feeling she'll be okay...

Other Contenders: Amy Adams Untitled David O. Russell Film, Jennifer Garner Dallas Buyers Club, Nicole Kidman The Railway Man, Julianne Moore Carrie, Carey Mulligan Inside Llewyn Davis

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