Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: Best Actor 2015

This past Sunday, the Academy honored the best of 2014 (well, what they deemed the best anyway) and the performances of Eddie Redmayne, Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons, and Patricia Arquette (all from Best Picture nominated films) were ultimately crowned the victors (all were first-time winners as well). While there were highs (Julianne Moore is an Oscar winner at last! Man, that performance of "Glory" from Selma sure stirred some emotions...And who knew I needed Lady Gaga signing a medley of songs from The Sound of Music in a faux British accent in my life?) there were also many lows (Hosting is a thankless job and sadly Neil Patrick Harris was not up to the task this year. Who invited Sean Penn to present Best Picture - was no one else available? And oh, creepy uncle John Trovalta, as screenwriter Graham Moore said in his acceptance speech, "Stay weird.") Now that we've closed the books on another year, it's time to...predict the acting nominees for next year! (duh)

It's an annual tradition I have here of selecting who I think - site unseen, months in advance - could potentially be nominated for the upcoming Oscars. It's all for fun (and who doesn't like to have some bragging rights?), so take it in, bookmark for when nominations are announced in January 2016, and see how well I did! The predictions begin with Best Actor and make sure to come back all this week for the other acting categories!

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Best Actor

Michael Fassbender Steve Jobs

Tom Hanks St. James Place

Tom Hiddleston I Saw the Light

Robert Redford Truth

Eddie Redmayne The Danish Girl

Michael Fassbender Steve Jobs

The Role: Thanks to the Sony email hacks from December, the drama of casting the titular lead role in this Danny Boyle helmed film about the founder and CEO of Apple Inc. turned into headline news. After Leonardo DiCaprio eventually passed on it, Christian Bale was approached but declined. Screenwriter Aaron Sorkin, showing how out of touch he is with modern cinema, was eager to cast Tom Cruise (really?) and initially scoffed at the man who finally landed the part saying, "I don't know who Michael Fassbender is and the rest of the world isn't going to care."

Why He'll Be Nominated: Sorry, Mr. Sorkin, but I have a very good feeling that the Academy will definitely care about one of the best actors working today taking on such a well-known figure. After he failed to score an Oscar nomination for his performance in Shame (2011), the Academy finally honored Fassbender with a supporting nomination in Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave (2013) and starring in such a high profile, prestige film like Steve Jobs is certainly more than enough to garner Oscar's attention again. It certainly helps that Fassbender is set to potentially have a banner year with no less than 5 other films set to open this year including one of Shakespeare's most famous characters, Macbeth, a part in one of legendary director Terrence Malick's films (well, if his part isn't completely cut), and a starring role in The Light Between Oceans, the next film from one of my favorite new director's Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine, The Place Beyond the Pines). But his best bet out of all of them for a nomination is certainly as Jobs. He's gotta fare better than Ashton Kutcher's take on the man at least...    

Tom Hanks St. James Place

The Role: Two-time Best Actor winner (and five-time nominee) Hanks takes on the role of real-life lawyer James Donovan, who in 1960 negotiated with the Soviet Union to release an American pilot that was shot down in their airspace. The U-2 Incident (named after the plane that was captured) was at the height of the Cold War between the two countries.

Why He'll Be Nominated: American treasure Hanks used to be a reliable Oscar favorite all through the '90s, but he hasn't received an acting nomination since 2000's Castaway. Despite what some saw as some of his strongest work to date in 2013's Captain Phillips (that scene where he breaks down after being rescued is probably his finest moment) and a guaranteed lock for his sixth nomination, Hanks found himself the odd man out in favor of Christian Bale in American Hustle. I think that snub will do well in securing him a nomination this year as a way of amending the oversight. Playing a character based on an actual person and teaming up for the fourth time with Academy favorite Steven Spielberg, (whose last film brought a Best Actor win for Daniel Day-Lewis) certainly seems like a good way of grabbing the Academy's attention. Plus, he'll also appear this year in the film version of Dave Eggers' A Hologram for the King, which is sure to be another great showcase for the actor. But I'm giving the edge to his work with Spielberg to garner him that sixth Best Actor nomination that eluded him two years ago.

Tom Hiddleston I Saw the Light

The Role: In this musical biopic, Tom Hiddleston plays one of the legends of country music, Hank Williams. Unable to read or notate music, Williams wrote such hit songs as "Your Cheatin' Heart" and "I'm So Lonesome I Could Cry" and had 11 number one hits on the Billboard country charts. An alcoholic and addicted to prescription drugs, he died at the age of 29.

Why He'll Be Nominated: British born and classically trained British thespian Hiddleston doesn't immediately spring to mind as the first person to play a famous country singer (and at 34, he's already 5 years older than Williams was when he died), but the Academy loves when an actor is able to challenge themselves. Hiddleston, who will sing and play the guitar himself in the film, trained everyday for a month and even showed off his skills to audiences at a country music festival back in September. Hiddleston is part of the group of new British actors (made up of Cumberbatch and Fassbender) that have made a name for themselves as actors to watch over the past couple of years. His work as villain Loki in the Marvel films has proven he can bring considerable charm, skill, and gravitas to almost any project (and he'll do it again this fall in the genre, horror film from Guillermo del Toro, Crimson Peak). And while both of his fellow Brits have already been honored by the Academy with nominations, it seems that if Hiddleston is able to pull off his transformation as Williams, it'll be the right time to honor him as well.    

Robert Redford Truth

The Role: Hollywood legend Robert Redford tackles the role of news anchor Dan Rather in his final days at CBS news. Based on the book Truth and Duty by Rather's producer Mary Mapes (to be played in the film by Cate Blanchett), Rather found himself under fire during the reelection for George W. Bush when he reported that the President received special treatment to avoid serving in Vietnam.

Why He'll Be Nominated: Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, The Way We Were, All the President's Men, there's no doubt that Robert Redford has secured his cinematic legacy. And not content to just act, then he did it again as a director (winning Best Director for Ordinary People). But, surprisingly, Redford has only received one acting nomination from the Academy in his entire career (for 1973's The Sting). He came very close with his one man, almost wordless performance in 2013's All Is Lost, but like Hanks that same year, found himself without a nomination (it was a rough year for acting veterans). But like Hanks, that shut out should help him score points with his work this year. The Academy loves mimicry of well-known figures and this period in Rather's life is a juicy bit of storytelling. Paired with recent Best Actress winner Blanchett, it seems like something the Academy would be interested in rewarding. Political films can be hit or miss, but if the film is more Good Night and Good Luck or The Insider and less like Redford's own snoozer Lions for Lambs, it could surely score a second career acting nomination for the star.  

Eddie Redmayne The Danish Girl

The Role: The recent Best Actor winner (very recent, as in just two days ago) could find himself with back-to-back nominations (and perhaps even back-to-back wins) playing artist Einar Wegener, a transgender woman that became one of the first on record to have gender reassignment surgery.

Why He'll Be Nominated: Oscar tends to get crushes on certain actors for certain periods of time, nominating them for anything that appears worthy. And newly anointed victor Redmayne looks to be securing an afterglow nomination with his work for this film which pairs him up again with his Les Miz director Tom Hopper. His win on Sunday as Stephen Hawking shows that the Academy was impressed with his physical transformation as the physicist, but as Einar/Lili the actor will be challenged to transform himself again, physically and emotionally. The project was a passion of Nicole Kidman for over a decade, but she could never get it off the ground. Perhaps now is the right time, with shows like Transparent and actress Laverne Cox making discussions of trans people and their struggles for acceptance an important issue, to shine the light on this groundbreaking pioneer that made it possible for future individuals to live as they were intended. 

Other Possibilities: Don Cheadle Miles Ahead, Bryan Cranston Trumbo, Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant, Jake Gyllenhaal Demolition, Michael Shannon Midnight Special 

Early Fall Predictions: Best Actor

Now that we are actually in Oscar Movie Season (the leaves are changing and adult dramas are back in the theaters again - rejoice!), I thought it would be a good time to reevaluate my predictions. That sidebar with my year in advance predictions was starting to look a little dated. (Sorry, Chadwick Boseman. I thought you were great in Get On Up - probably the best part of the entire movie - but a Best Actor nomination just is not going to happen.) And now that we've had the main film festivals (Toronto, Telluride, Venice, and New York) it seems that most of the major players have been viewed, with the top men fighting their way to the 5 spots in Best Actor.

It appears that two actors that are almost guaranteed nominations are a couple of Brits in a couple of baity biopics. Eddie Redmayne, who is already a Tony award winner and gained a little awards traction (or at least talk) a couple years ago when he played Marius in the Oscar-winning Les Misérables, seems to have taken the early frontrunner status for his transformative work as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. Playing the real-life physicist allows him to not only tackle the mimicry of a well-known figure but he also physically challenges himself as he shows the progression Hawking's body underwent as his disease left him almost entirely paralyzed. It's the sort of performance that Oscar will find hard to ignore and could bring a possible win.

Taking on another important British figure, although one not as well known, the internet's favorite actor (that bears a striking resemblance to a certain aquatic creature), Benedict Cumberbatch plays Alan Turing, the genius that successfully cracked the Enigma code, a huge step in the Allies winning WWII. But if that wasn't baity enough, Turing was later put to trial for his homosexuality, persecuted by the country that once celebrated him as a savior. Cumberbatch has been the next big thing for awhile. Although things didn't pan out for a nomination last year for the virtually forgotten The Fifth Estate, that there was talk at all for him just shows that people are eager to see him nominated. (His recent Emmy win for the beloved Sherlock certainly helps as well.) And with strong reviews for his performance, it seems he'll be making his way to a first nomination.

Another strong possibility is something of a comeback story. Michael Keaton, whose recent career hasn't exactly been as strong as it was back in his heyday of the late 80's and early 90's (Sorry, I never saw Need for Speed or the Robocop remake), seems to have found a role that could bring the veteran his first nomination. Starring in Oscar-nominated writer/director Alejandro G. Iñárritu's first foray into comedy (but it's a dark comedy), Keaton plays Riggan Thomson, an actor once known for playing a superhero now trying to mount a career-comeback on Broadway. Much has already been said about the parallels between the character and the former Batman's story (in fact, that's been most of what the early press has been about). But word is Keaton hits it out of the park with a nomination almost sure to follow.

Steve Carell may be best known as a comedian, but it seems that his against-type performance in Foxcatcher, in which the star wore a prosthetic nose (well, it worked for Nicole Kidman) and plays the real-life millionaire and murderer John du Pont, might just find his way to an Oscar nomination. That is if he doesn't lose his spot to his costar Channing Tatum said to give the performance of his career in the film. Both have had strong praise and buzz since the film debuted at Cannes back in May, but for now I'm giving the edge to Carell to secure a spot on the list. Both actors are stepping outside their comfort zone, but seeing funny man Carell play a chilling killer seems like the sort of game-changing performance the Academy would recognize.

For my fifth choice, I'm gonna go out on limb here with a film that has yet to be screened at festivals, with a relative unknown actor that's a little younger than Oscar is used to honoring. But after seeing Jack O'Connell in Starred Up this year, he has definitely emerged as a charismatic and talented actor, that seems capable of great things. With his performance in the Angelina Jolie-helmed Unbroken, playing an actual person (Louis Zamperini), who was a Olympian, WWII soldier, survived not only a plane crash but a raft stranded at sea for 47 days and a Japanese POW camp, I just have a hunch that it's a performance that will be too big to ignore. And the other names being tossed around right now (Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice is too weird, Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner seems too stuffy, Ralph Fiennes in Grand Budapest Hotel seems so long ago, and Ben Affleck in Gone Girl is just...no), they don't stand out the way O'Connell does. I think we're looking at an interesting year with some surprises and right now it's looking like a Best Actor category made up entirely of first time nominees.

My Predictions

Steve Carell Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton Birdman

Jack O'Connell Unbroken

Eddie Redmayne The Theory of Everything

My Favorite Best Actor Performances (of what I've seen so far this year)

Ralph Fiennes Grand Budapest Hotel

John Lithgow Love Is Strange

Alfred Molina Love Is Strange

Jack O'Connell Starred Up

Miles Teller Whiplash