Early Fall Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

With only two more months to go before the end of the year and only a handful of films still to be screened, the Best Supporting Actor category is still very much anyone's game. But as exciting as that seems, in theory, I found myself struggling to even fill out my own picks of favorite performances from this year. Certainly there must be some great performance that I'm overlooking. But for now, what people have decided as our options for the 5 slots aren't really inspiring much excitement in me...

One thing we know for sure, J.K. Simmons will be nominated (and possibly win) for Whiplash. Playing a hot-headed jazz instructor with a short-fuse, character actor Simmons is a foul-mouthed spitfire. I had such anxiety watching this film as if I was being yelled at and ridiculed by him personally. Although I was never taken with the character and don't feel Simmons gets to play much in this other than to be a gigantic screaming asshole, which he more than delivers. But it's just the type of showy turn from a respected actor that the Academy couldn't possibly overlook. I loved the actual film (and especially Miles Teller's performance) and won't begrudge Simmons his moment, but I did want more from him and never found his insults (especially his endless homophobic slurs) as shockingly funny as it seemed others did. The film was already a hit at Sundance and is it continues to open in more locations, I think the support for Simmons will geo even more.  

It's also a pretty safe bet to include two-time Oscar nominee Edward Norton for his performance as difficult theatre actor, Mike Shiner, in Birdman. Norton, playing on his own reputation as a prickly performer that clashes with his directors, is absolutely hilarious in the role. As the ultimate serious actor, Norton completely commits to the role, not afraid to show the pettiness of Shiner, relishing in how unlikable he can be. But then in quieter moments, (his rooftop scenes with Emma Stone crackle with silent, pulsating energy) he gets to show a gentler side that save the character from being a one-dimensional jerk. Norton hasn't been nominated in over 15 years (and not in this category since his film debut in 1996), but Birdman is already a hit with critics and has potential to hit big with the Academy. It seems that a nomination for Norton is definitely secure.

This summer when Richard Linklater's 12-years-in-the-making Boyhood was released, it seemed that the early Oscar buzz for an acting nomination was only on Patricia Arquette. But as the months have passed, former nominee Ethan Hawke (nominated in 2001 in this category for Training Day) began his slow burn and his name started coming up as often in regards to awards talk. And now he's already gained an acting nomination from the Gotham Independent Film Awards for his work as Mason, Sr. Hawke has steadily built a strong reputation within the film community over the years, even branching out from acting and garnering 2 screenplay nominations for his work on the two beloved Before Sunrise sequels. Even the people who didn't necessarily love the movie still admired the commitment it took to complete. Honoring Hawke here could be seen as a way of honoring the movie itself and his 12 year dedication to his performance.

After Foxcatcher finally made its debut at Cannes this past May, proving that the delay was worth it, the debate began on how Steve Carell and Channing Tatum would be campaigned for Oscars. It seems that, for now, both men will go lead. But there was no question that Oscar-nominee, Mark Ruffalo, playing real-life murder victim and Olympic wrestler David Schultz, would always be in the supporting category. And it looks like Ruffalo is most likely scoring his second Oscar nominations for his work in the film. However, if things start to shift and Carell feels he could win in Supporting, Ruffalo's chances of a nomination get a little bit tougher. Ruffalo has had some other well-received, high-profile work this year in Begin Again and an Emmy nomination for HBO's The Normal Heart. A nomination could be seen as reward for a successful year, which could also weigh heavily on receiving the nom.

But what to make of the 5th position? Right now everyone from Tyler Perry in Gone Girl to Robert Duvall in The Judge (I'm very surprised people are still holding on to that one considering how poorly received the film was critically and financially) to Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice (he has the best chance of a nomination from the movie, but it's not the contender I think we initially thought it was) to Tim Roth and Tom Wilkinson from the unseen Selma have all been mentioned. But I have a hunch that the 5th nominee, like in the Best Actor line-up, will come from Angelina Jolie's Unbroken. But with all the names that could potentially breakout (Domhnall Gleeson, Garrett Hedlund, Jai Courtney, Finn Wittrock), my feeling is that Japanese pop star Miyavi playing an officer in the POW camp that Jack O'Connell is held prisoner and the main antagonist of the hero has the kind of baity part that wins awards attention.

My Predictions

Ethan Hawke Boyhood

Miyavi Unbroken

Edward Norton Birdman

Mark Ruffalo Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

My Favorite Best Supporting Actor Performances (of what I've seen so far)

Ben Mendelsohn Starred Up

Bill Nighy Pride

Edward Norton Birdman

Christophe Paou Strangers by the Lake

Sam Rockwell Laggies

A Year in Advance Oscar Predictions 2014: Best Supporting Actor

I'll be the first to admit that, historically, this is my worst category at predicting so far in advance. It's always hard to know exactly which roles will land, how parts will be campaigned, and, most importantly, if there's enough there to warrant a nomination. The 5 men I've decided on consist of 3 previous winners in this category, a veteran character actor that seems to have a buzz-worthy role in a hit from Sundance, and a relatively new movie star trying to prove his worth as an actor by scoring his first Oscar nomination.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro Inherent Vice

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

Channing Tatum Foxcatcher

Christopher Walken Jersey Boys

Christoph Waltz Big Eyes

* * *

Benicio Del Toro Inherent Vice

The Role: Del Torro teams up with Joaquin Phoenix in Paul Thomas Anderson's adaptation of the Thomas Pynchon novel. He plays a character named Sauncho Smilax, the attorney to main character Doc (Phoenix), who is called upon time and time again to get his friend and client out of scraps.   

Why He'll Be Nominated: Del Toro is just one of those actors that I tend to always choose for nominations. He's so talented that I feel anytime he's involved with something, it's worth taking notice. Nominated twice before (and a winner for Traffic), it seems the Academy likes him as well (although, he hasn't been nominated in over 10 years). I haven't read the novel yet, but hear the part he plays is relatively small–with the potential to steal scenes. Anderson has apparently said the film feels like a Cheech and Chong movie. If anyone could make the Academy take notice of a stoner flick, it's him. Hopefully, Del Toro's turn in the film will be just the sort of tasty treat the Academy will crave.

J.K. Simmons Whiplash

The Role: Reprising his role from the award-winng short on which the film is based, Simmons plays a hard-ass, profanity spewing...jazz instructor that challenges Miles Teller to be the best damn jazz drummer he can be.

Why He'll Be Nominated: Whiplash, which was already a hit at Sundance last year when it won the Jury prize for best short film, was a big winner at the festival again this year when it took home the top Audience and Grand Jury prize for dramatic film. Almost all of the reviews have singled out Simmons for his performance in the film as a definite standout. The actor, who has been working steadily for years in television and commercials and been giving solid supporting turns in Oscar nominated films like Juno and Up in the Air seems to have finally found a role that allows him to shine. If the film's Sundance success translates to wider audiences, it seems that Simmons could be looking at his first Oscar nomination. 

Channing Tatum Foxcatcher

The Role: Taking on the real-life role of Olympic gold medal-winning wrestler Mark Schultz, Tatum plays the brother of fellow Olympian and murder victim Dave Schultz (Mark Ruffalo). Dave was shot by millionaire John du Pont (Steve Carrell) on his estate where the brothers trained. The film is based on the autobiography that Mark wrote about the event.

Why He'll Be Nominated: Already named the Sexiest Man Alive by People magazine, it seems that being just a pretty face (and abs and ass and...) just isn't enough for Channing Tatum. Although he's shown himself to be a talented actor in both comedy and drama (he's especially good in his Indie Spirit nominated role in A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints), it seems that tackling this part could bring him the kind of respect afforded other handsome male stars, like Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise before him, that had to prove their worth with the Academy. 21 Jump Street co-star Jonah Hill scored his first Oscar nomination working with director Bennett Miller. Perhaps the director will be the key to scoring Tatum's first nomination as well. Just imagine the ads if the two make a third Jump Street film...  

Christopher Walken Jersey Boys

The Role: The Oscar winner plays Gyp DeCarlo, the New Jersey crime boss that had ties to The Four Seasons (the real DeCarlo was also involved with Frank Sinatra). This is the film version of the Tony award-winning musical based on the lives of the popular singing group.

Why He'll Be Nominated: Although this particular role was not an awards magnet when the show was on stage, the reason I think Walken could score here is for the simple fact that he's Christopher Walken. This category tends to go for performances from seasoned actors and Walken, being directed by Clint Eastwood, and the only known "name" in the film could be the kind of performance that the Academy goes for. I'm just hoping that this performance is as good as his charmingly sinister role as the tap-dancing pimp in Pennies From Heaven, which should have brought a nomination in this category years ago...

Christoph Waltz Big Eyes

The Role: Playing opposite Oscar hopeful Amy Adams in this Tim Burton film, Waltz plays "artist" Walter Keane. Keane became a celebrity in the 60s due to the popular paintings he claimed ownership for that were, in fact, created by his wife.

Why He'll Be Nominated: After winning a pair of Oscars in this category for roles that were arguably leads, it seems that Waltz may find himself with a third nomination (it would be his first for a non-Tarantino film) for a another role that could potentially be a lead as well. We'll have to wait to see whom exactly the focus of the film is on. It sounds like more of Margaret Keane's story to me. And if Harvey Weinstein wants to make the campaign all about getting Amy a win, it seems logical that putting Waltz in supporting would put the focus more on her. Waltz who seems to take delight in playing villainous roles, could find himself rewarded once again for taking on this unlikable figure. 

Other Possibilities: Josh Brolin Inherent Vice, Johnny Depp Into the Woods, Robert Duvall The Judge, Garrett Hedlund Unbroken, Mark Ruffalo Foxcatcher