Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: Best Actress 2015

For being my favorite category (the past two Best Actress winners, Cate Blanchett and Julianne Moore, rank as some of my favorite actresses of all time), year after year, this is always my worst category in predicting. Unlike Best Actor, which is usually made up of big names in Best Picture contenders, Best Actress performance seem to be left out of the major categories far too often. Which makes trying to predict so far in advance more difficult for the lead actresses. Of the 5 contenders this past year, only one (Jones) was in a Best Picture nominated film and 3 out of the 5 (Cotillard, Moore, and Pike) were their film's sole nomination. And while it's great that the Academy is looking to diverse films to fill out this category, it does have a hint of prejudice about it - stories where women are at the center aren't seen as viable contenders for Screenplay, Picture, or Director. But like Blanchett said in her acceptance speech last year, movies with woman at the center are not a niche, people do want to see them. And as a self-identifying actressexual - boy, do I! The 5 women I've chosen as my year in advance predictions have all been nominated before and three of them have even won in this category, but they're all performances I'm eagerly anticipating. And even if they don't make Oscar's final five spots, with these women in the lead, they're sure to be fascinating.

* * * 

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett Carol

Jennifer Lawrence Joy

Julianne Moore Freeheld

Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn

Lily Tomlin Grandma

Cate Blanchett Carol

The Role: Blanchett plays the titular Carol. Set in 1950s New York City (but shot in Cincinnati, Ohio - go figure), Carol Aird is a wealthy Manhattan wife and mother trying to live the picture-perfect post-war life. She has had relationships in the past with women and she begins a romantic affair with a shopgirl (Rooney Mara). While divorcing her husband, Carol must decide if her relationship is worth losing custody of her young daughter...

Why She'll Be Nominated: Does all this sound familiar? Well, it should because I already predicted that Blanchett would be scoring her 7th career nomination for this performance...last year. I hesitated to include it last year because it hadn't started filming yet. Instead of trying to rush completion on it for the end of year 2014, the new plan seems to be to roll it out to film festivals this year before an eventual (awards season friendly) fall release. Cannes seems like the most likely debut for the film. With two wins already, Blanchett is definitely an Academy darling and the last time she worked with director Todd Haynes she scored a supporting nomination for playing a Bob Dylan-esque folk singer in I'm Not There. Blanchett has been compared to Meryl Streep often and it seems that if anyone can take on the Oscar Queen's title, it's her. She's already earning early raves for her villainous turn as Cinderella's stepmother in the Disney live-action film coming out in March. It seems very likely that the accolades will continue this year with this more Oscar-friendly performance.

Jennifer Lawrence Joy

The Role: The Best Actress winner teams up again with her Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle director David O. Russell starring as the real-life Joy Mangano, a Long Island single mother who hit it big with selling her inventions on QVC in the early '90s, particularly the Miracle Mop and the network's all-time best seller, Huggable Hangers.

Why She'll Be Nominated: Although I personally was not a fan of either of the films that Lawrence and Russell worked on previously, there's no denying that the Academy was crazy for them. Both films earned nominations for its stars in all four of the acting categories, including back to back nominations for Lawrence, making her the youngest actress to score three Oscar nominations. So it's safe to say that anything that pairs them together is definitely on the Academy's radar. At only 24, I'm not sure why Russell keeps casting Lawrence in these parts that she is clearly too young to play, but there's no denying her star power and goofy likability make her a favorite among critics and audiences. Thanks to the enormous success of The Hunger Games franchise, she's also a bonafide money maker. She's so popular that paparazzi are grabbing pictures of her every day on set for this film - a biopic about a woman and her mops. It seems pretty certain that she'll "mop the floor" with the other contenders to score a fourth nomination...(Are y'all prepared for more mop puns coming our way for the next awards season?)

Julianne Moore Freeheld

The Role: The newly crowned Best Actress winner (yay, Juli!) plays Laurel Hester, a New Jersey police officer. After being diagnosed with lung cancer, she takes on the Board of Chosen Freeholders in her town in New Jersey, fighting to have the right to leave her pension to her partner Stacie (Ellen Page). 

Why She'll Be Nominated: The true life story of Laurel and Stacie's struggle was already the subject of a 2007 documentary short film of the same name that won the Academy Award in that category. With the Oscar-winning material being brought to life with one of our finest actresses, it seems a reasonable assumption that Moore's portrayal is an Oscar contender. After 4 previous nominations without a win and no nominations since 2002 (despite work in The Kids Are All Right and A Single Man that seemed worthy of nominating), many had given up hope that Moore would ever be invited back by the Academy. That all changed on Sunday night when Moore won Best Actress for Still Alice. It seems that the win could actually help booster her profile with this film, reminding the Academy how long they had been overlooking her before and rewarding her with another nomination so soon after the win just to show that, yes, they neglected her too much in the past, but they wanna make it up to her. And her role in this film seems like it might be impossible to ignore.

Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn

The Role: Irish actress Ronan plays Eilis Lacey, a young Irish girl that leaves her home in Ireland to come to Brooklyn in the 1950s for a better chance at life. She falls in love with an Italian-American boy (Emory Cohen) even as another suitor back in her home country (Domhnall Gleeson) makes her decide where her heart lies.
   

Why She'll Be Nominated: The film, which already debuted at Sundance this past January, entered into a bidding war with the studios, eventually selling to Fox Searchlight for $9 million - the most for any film this year at the festival. The romantic melodrama earned wonderful reviews, almost all of which singled out Ronan's performance as the highlight of the film. A previous nominee in the supporting category for her work in Atonement (2007), Ronan also appeared in the recent Oscar winner The Grand Budapest Hotel, proving that even at her relatively young age, the Academy is well-versed in her work. Based on the novel by award-winning Irish author Colm Tóibín, adapted by Nick Hornby, and directed by Tony award nominated director John Crowley (his film work includes 2007's Boy A), the film might have flown under the radar if had not been for its reception in Sundance. But now that we are aware of Ronan's strong work in it, the Oscar buzz has an entire year to build. 

Lily Tomlin Grandma

The Role: Playing the grandma of the film's title, Tomlin is Elle Reid a feminist poet and lesbian that helps her granddaughter raise the funds necessary to have an abortion.

Why She'll Be Nominated: Lily Tomlin is just one award short of the elusive EGOT. For those of you not familiar (um, how did you get here then?!), it's winning all four of the major entertainment awards: Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony. The one award missing for her title? That would be the golden "O". Nominated only once before in Supporting Actress for her performance in Robert Altman's masterpiece Nashville, if she is nominated for her star turn in this character study, it will have been 40 years between nominations. Also shown at Sundance and judging from my friend Nathaniel at The Film Experience, it is certainly an Oscar-worthy performance from the legendary actress. And with her Netflix series alongside Jane Fonda also coming out this year, it could be a very good time to be a Lily Tomlin fan. I'd love to see her get nominated, especially if we get to see her reunited with Joy's David O. Russell at all the awards ceremonies. We all know how well the two of them get along... 

Other Possibilities: Angelina Jolie By the Sea, Carey Mulligan Suffragette, Zoe Saldana Nina, Meryl Streep Ricki and the Flash, Kate Winslet The Dressmaker 

Saturday Mornings Chat and Chew

Waitress: (sitting them down and hands menus) Here you go.

Tiffany: Thank you

Pat: I'll get a bowl of Raisin Bran

Waitress: Great

Tiffany: Tea

Waitress: (taking menus) Be right up...

Pat: You look nice.

Tiffany: Thanks

(Waitress returns)

Waitress: Raisin Bran. And some milk for you.

(Waitress sets down tea)

Tiffany: Thank you

Pat: You wanna share this?

Tiffany: Why did you order Raisin Bran?

A Guide to Best Supporting Actress 2013

My look at the acting races before Oscar night continues with the Supporting Actresses.

Any category that includes Oprah and the vocal stylings of Scarlett Johansson as the voice of a computer as potential nominees is gonna be one with surprises. Although neither of those nominations managed to materialize, it was certainly one of the more interesting categories to watch develop this year. If Oprah had received a nom for Lee Daniels' The Butler, she would have been only the 3rd black actress to have 2 acting nominations. The others are Whoopi Goldberg and Viola Davis. Johansson has yet to be recognized by the Academy. (What are they waiting for?) But of the 5 women nominated, this year's race comes down to only two: JLaw vs. Lupita. 

* * *

Sally Hawkins Blue Jasmine

Age: 37
Previous Oscar Nominations: Despite just missing out in what was certainly the 6th place slot in 2008 for Happy Go Lucky (for which she tearfully won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy), this is Hawkins first nomination
The Role: Ginger, the well-meaning, lower-class, adopted sister of Cate Blanchett's neurotic Jasmine. She never met a feather-adorned poncho she didn't love.
Why She's Here: When Jasmine debuted this summer, it seemed that the only thing people could talk about was how amazing Cate Blanchett was in it. She dominates the film. But luckily the earlier release allowed people to re-watch, look at more than Blanchett's acting tsunami and remember that Hawkins as her supportive, put-upon sister was equally as good. The role is definitely not as flashy as Blanchett's, but her Ginger is the emotional heart of the film. Hawkins is great with what she's given. I just wish there had been a few more sisterly bonding scenes between the two, so that we understood a little more of their dynamic. She also gets saddled with a subplot involving an affair that leads to nowhere. But the overall love of the film and the fact that she missed out on a previous nomination is why she heard her name called on the morning of nominations. 

Jennifer Lawrence American Hustle

Age: 23 and the youngest actor of either gender to score 3 Oscar nominations
Previous Oscar Nominations: Best Actress Winter's Bone (2010) and she won Best Actress last year for Silver Linings Playbook
The Role: The unhappy housewife of con artist Irving Rosenfeld (Christian Bale). Rosalyn Rosenfeld enjoys sweet and sour smelling nail polish, sing-a-longs to Paul McCartney songs, and distrusts science ovens for stealing food's nutrients.
Why She's Here: I don't know if you've heard, but people really seem to love that Jennifer Lawrence. After last year's Oscar win in which she walked each red carpet saying whatever thought came into her head, the internets officially named her their new BFF. And it sure didn't hurt that she also stars in the wildly popular Hunger Games films. So, it only makes sense that she finds herself with another nomination for her scene-stealing work in American Hustle. She is certainly a jolt of energy whenever she's on screen in the film, setting scenes on fire-literally. But, as enjoyable as she is to watch, I always felt like I was watching a high school production where teenagers make-belive at playing adults. She's entirely too young for the part of a middle aged housewife (When did she have that kid? When she was 12?) and nothing about the performance seems authentic or believable. Having won the Golden Globe and BAFTA for this role, she's definitely a threat to win. But having just won last year, it seems a little too soon to reward her again.

Lupita Nyong'o 12 Years a Slave

Age: She turns 31 the day before the Oscar ceremony. Is an Oscar her belated birthday present?
Previous Oscar Nominations: This is her film debut
The Role: Patsey, the prized slave and object of her owner's affection (Michael Fassbender). She is met with scorn by his jealous wife (Sarah Paulson) and gains the friendship of Solomon (Chiwetel Ejiofor).
Why She's Here: No one knew her name when she was cast in this film during her senior year of Yale Drama School, but after her breathtaking performance and whirlwind rise to fame, thanks to her stunning red carpet fashions, we all know her name now. Lupita Nyong'o has emerged as the breakout star of 2013 and even if she doesn't come out victorious on Oscar night (she must!), it's just the start of what will hopefully be a long and successful film career. As Patsey, Nyong'o is heartbreaking. She plays a woman that has never known freedom of any sort her entire life. Her spirit is so broken down that in one scene she even begs Solomon to have mercy on her and take her own life–She doesn't have the strength to do it herself. After Solomon gains back his freedom, she has found a place within our hearts that one can't help but think what will become of Patsey now. After wins from critics and SAG, hopefully Nyong'o's own fate is met with a Best Supporting Actress win.

Julia Roberts August: Osage County

Age: 46
Previous Oscar Nominations: This is Roberts' fourth nomination. She has been nominated previously in this category for Steel Magnolias (1989) and twice for Best Actress: Pretty Woman (1990) and her Oscar winning role as Erin Brockovich (2000)
The Role: Roberts plays Barbara Fordham, the eldest daughter of the Weston family (headed by acid-tongued matriarch Violet, played by Meryl Streep). Barbara returns to her childhood home after the disappearance and death of her father.
Why She's Here: Despite mixed reviews, Roberts found herself with lots of "best in show" notices for her turn in this family (melo)drama. Roberts does solid work in the film, even if the film itself does come off as little more than a flat television movie. She's also given the film's most memorable quote as she barks at Meryl Streep's Violet to, "Eat the fish, bitch!" But she is clearly a lead in the film (she may even have more screen time than Meryl Streep) and doesn't belong in this category, taking the slot from one of her many co-stars, including Margo Martindale in role that won a Tony award on Broadway. In years to come, I feel not only will this role be the hardest to recall of Roberts' nominations, but also the most forgettable of this year's lineup.

June Squibb Nebraska

Age: 84 If she wins she would be the oldest winner in this category, but that ain't gonna happen
Previous Oscar Nominations: First nomination
The Role: The sassy, foul-mouthed, Kate Grant, wife to would-be millionaire Woody (Bruce Dern). She makes her husband's life a living hell by insulting him at every chance ("You dumb cluck").
Why She's Here: This has to be my least favorite nomination in this category, but I get why she's here. Squibb is comic relief in the film and you can never underestimate the appeal of a cussing old lady. The role is a shrew of a woman. Everything that she spews out of her mouth is negative. She is unrelenting in her hatred of everyone and everything. Even the scene where she "defends" Woody from his relatives is just an attack on them. Not coming to his defense at all, she only redirects the anger. I couldn't stand the time I had to spend with this miserable woman.




Who Will Win: I'm giving the edge to Lupita Nyong'o
Who Should Win: Nyong'o - without a doubt

The Girl On Fire

Get ready, Jen, cause this is only the start

I hope everyone is ready because we are literally watching the meteoric rise of an actress getting catapulted into superstardom. And from the looks of her gold Prabal Gurung dress at Monday's LA Premiere and her...gold (are you noticing a trend here) Ralph Lauren dress at the London Premiere, the Oscar-nominated star of The Hunger Games is ready for the attention. The director, Gary Ross, has already stated that he thinks Jennifer Lawrence should be nominated for an Oscar for her work in the film. And what better way to alert potential voters that you are interested in trophies than by dressing like one (it worked for Meryl this year). So shiny...

I'm ready for the ascent of Jen. She was great in the film that earned her that first Best Actress nom, Winter's Bone. Her Appalachian character couldn't be more different than the dolled-up movie star in these red carpet photos (seriously, she eats a squirrel she kills herself in the movie). She's already worked with the likes of Jodie Foster and David O. Russell. And she's already been apart of a blockbuster with last summer's X-Men: First Class. But, I have a feeling that playing Katniss Everdeen in The Hunger Games is gonna one of those iconic roles, like Indiana Jones or Sigoureny Weaver in Aliens, that will forever be associated with an actor as a mark of their legacy.

But, the best thing about Jen is that she is actually a very good actress. There are movie stars who can act and then there are actors who just happen to be movie stars. Jennifer Lawrence is the later. She is very determined to do great work. And starring in a big-budget franchise can hurt your career just as much as help if people only buy you as that character. Luckily, she's already lined up her next project. She's working with Academy Award winning director, Susanne Bier, as the title character in Serena. The story is set in 1929 North Carolina as Serena and her husband (Bradley Cooper) set up a lumber empire at any cost. But, all her ambitions are sidetracked when Serena can't give birth. When she discovers her husband already has an illegitimate child, she sets out to destroy him. Sounds like a ruthless Medea/Lady Macbeth-type role that could show a very adult side to the young actress. In fact, the role had been pursued by another famous actress who could maybe give Jen some tips on how to handle being a movie star: Angelina Jolie. Cause after March 23, her life is gonna change...

poll by twiigs.com