Early Fall Predictions: Best Actor

Now that we are actually in Oscar Movie Season (the leaves are changing and adult dramas are back in the theaters again - rejoice!), I thought it would be a good time to reevaluate my predictions. That sidebar with my year in advance predictions was starting to look a little dated. (Sorry, Chadwick Boseman. I thought you were great in Get On Up - probably the best part of the entire movie - but a Best Actor nomination just is not going to happen.) And now that we've had the main film festivals (Toronto, Telluride, Venice, and New York) it seems that most of the major players have been viewed, with the top men fighting their way to the 5 spots in Best Actor.

It appears that two actors that are almost guaranteed nominations are a couple of Brits in a couple of baity biopics. Eddie Redmayne, who is already a Tony award winner and gained a little awards traction (or at least talk) a couple years ago when he played Marius in the Oscar-winning Les Misérables, seems to have taken the early frontrunner status for his transformative work as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. Playing the real-life physicist allows him to not only tackle the mimicry of a well-known figure but he also physically challenges himself as he shows the progression Hawking's body underwent as his disease left him almost entirely paralyzed. It's the sort of performance that Oscar will find hard to ignore and could bring a possible win.

Taking on another important British figure, although one not as well known, the internet's favorite actor (that bears a striking resemblance to a certain aquatic creature), Benedict Cumberbatch plays Alan Turing, the genius that successfully cracked the Enigma code, a huge step in the Allies winning WWII. But if that wasn't baity enough, Turing was later put to trial for his homosexuality, persecuted by the country that once celebrated him as a savior. Cumberbatch has been the next big thing for awhile. Although things didn't pan out for a nomination last year for the virtually forgotten The Fifth Estate, that there was talk at all for him just shows that people are eager to see him nominated. (His recent Emmy win for the beloved Sherlock certainly helps as well.) And with strong reviews for his performance, it seems he'll be making his way to a first nomination.

Another strong possibility is something of a comeback story. Michael Keaton, whose recent career hasn't exactly been as strong as it was back in his heyday of the late 80's and early 90's (Sorry, I never saw Need for Speed or the Robocop remake), seems to have found a role that could bring the veteran his first nomination. Starring in Oscar-nominated writer/director Alejandro G. Iñárritu's first foray into comedy (but it's a dark comedy), Keaton plays Riggan Thomson, an actor once known for playing a superhero now trying to mount a career-comeback on Broadway. Much has already been said about the parallels between the character and the former Batman's story (in fact, that's been most of what the early press has been about). But word is Keaton hits it out of the park with a nomination almost sure to follow.

Steve Carell may be best known as a comedian, but it seems that his against-type performance in Foxcatcher, in which the star wore a prosthetic nose (well, it worked for Nicole Kidman) and plays the real-life millionaire and murderer John du Pont, might just find his way to an Oscar nomination. That is if he doesn't lose his spot to his costar Channing Tatum said to give the performance of his career in the film. Both have had strong praise and buzz since the film debuted at Cannes back in May, but for now I'm giving the edge to Carell to secure a spot on the list. Both actors are stepping outside their comfort zone, but seeing funny man Carell play a chilling killer seems like the sort of game-changing performance the Academy would recognize.

For my fifth choice, I'm gonna go out on limb here with a film that has yet to be screened at festivals, with a relative unknown actor that's a little younger than Oscar is used to honoring. But after seeing Jack O'Connell in Starred Up this year, he has definitely emerged as a charismatic and talented actor, that seems capable of great things. With his performance in the Angelina Jolie-helmed Unbroken, playing an actual person (Louis Zamperini), who was a Olympian, WWII soldier, survived not only a plane crash but a raft stranded at sea for 47 days and a Japanese POW camp, I just have a hunch that it's a performance that will be too big to ignore. And the other names being tossed around right now (Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice is too weird, Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner seems too stuffy, Ralph Fiennes in Grand Budapest Hotel seems so long ago, and Ben Affleck in Gone Girl is just...no), they don't stand out the way O'Connell does. I think we're looking at an interesting year with some surprises and right now it's looking like a Best Actor category made up entirely of first time nominees.

My Predictions

Steve Carell Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton Birdman

Jack O'Connell Unbroken

Eddie Redmayne The Theory of Everything

My Favorite Best Actor Performances (of what I've seen so far this year)

Ralph Fiennes Grand Budapest Hotel

John Lithgow Love Is Strange

Alfred Molina Love Is Strange

Jack O'Connell Starred Up

Miles Teller Whiplash

A Year In Advance Oscar Predictions 2014: Best Actor

It's been a couple days since this past Sunday's Oscar ceremony (Congratulations Cate, Matthew, Lupita, and Jared! I would congratulate myself for predicting your wins, but literally everyone else was also predicting them) and with all the talk of Ellen's twitter-breaking selfie, the emergence of the wickedly talented new star Adele Dazeem, and Kim Novak's face, it seems that everyone was forgetting one very important thing:  who would be next year's acting nominees! But, Leto still hasn't loosened his hold on his statue since Sunday, I can hear you say. It's still warm in his hand! Do try to keep up–Oscar predictions wait for no one! All this week I'll be posting my annual Year in Advance predictions for this year's upcoming acting nominations. So, let's take a look at the fellas that will be vying to take home Best Actor a year from now!

Best Actor

Chadwick Boseman Get On Up

Steve Carrell Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

Jack O'Connell Unbroken

Joaquin Phoenix Inherent Vice

* * *

Chadwick Boseman Get On Up

The Role: After taking on the legendary Jackie Robinson in last year's 42, Boseman tackles another icon, The Godfather of Soul, James Brown. The film is the first follow-up, after the Oscar-winning The Help, for director Tate Taylor, who has been quoted as saying that he keeps forgetting to yell cut on set because Boseman is so mesmerizing in the role. 

Why He'll Be Nominated: Oscar often rewards actors for mimicking other famous personalities (it worked for Jamie Foxx in Ray and Joaquin Phoenix in Walk the Line) and James Brown is certainly a larger than life personality. Boseman, who has no experience signing and dancing previously, provides his own singing in the film and worked hard to learn Brown's fancy footwork (just as long as he got the cape exit down), which is sure to gain him points for difficulty. After the relative success of 42 (might it have had more Oscar buzz if it hadn't been released in April?) and a place upon the cover of this year's Vanity Fair Hollywood Issue alongside such Hollywood heavyweights as Julia Roberts and George Clooney (okay, so he was on the 3rd panel of the cover, but still very impressive), it seems that Boseman is becoming an actor to watch. A role as flashy as James Brown will be hard to ignore, especially if the film hits big.

Steve Carrell Foxcatcher

The Role: Carrell is a long way from Michael Scott in The Office as he plays the real-life John du Pont, a wealthy sports enthusiast that set up a wrestling training facility on his Philadelphia estate named Foxcatcher Farms. du Pont was found guilty of murder when he shot and killed one of the wrestlers that trained at his home (played by Mark Ruffalo). 

Why He'll Be Nominated: If you feel like you're experiencing dèjá vu, it's because I already predicted Carrell would be nominated for this film...last year...in Supporting. After a debut at the AFI Festival back in November that never happened, the film's release was pushed back to this year. Normally that would be a sign that all is not right with the film (ahem, Monuments Men anyone), but my confidence in it has not diminished. Mainly because the track record of director Bennett Miller in regards to Oscar has already been proven with his two previous reality-based films, Capote and Moneyball. After seeing the trailer (which they quickly pulled down), there's no question that Carrell is definitely the lead of the film and that he looks to be doing some pretty intense, dramatic work that could pay off with his first nomination. Oscar loves to honor actors that succeed in challenging themselves (see this year's win for McConaughey) and Carrell, who made a name for himself in comedy, could be looking at a career-changing performance.

Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game

The Role: Cumberbatch stars as the famed British mathematician, cryptographer, and computer scientist Alan Turing. He was influential in England's cracking of the Enigma codes that the Nazis used to send information during WWII. But the man that was once a hero was soon condemned by his own country when he was prosecuted for homosexuality in 1952. He dead 2 years later, days before he was to turn 42, from cyanide poisoning. 

Why He'll Be Nominated: So, last year's Oscar plans with The Fifth Estate didn't work out quite as planned, did they? But Cumberbitches, rejoice! Everyone's favorite otter-resembling, tongue-twistingly named thespian (someone please have Travolta introduce him) may be headed for his first nomination. For real, this time. The film already has the hefty support of Oscar-hungry mogul Harvey Weinstein who paid a record-breaking $7 Million for the US distribution of the film, sight unseen. If Harvey thinks it has awards potential just from looking at a promo reel, the actual film must be pretty damn good. The script was already awarded the top spot on the annual Black List back in 2010 (although that blessing certainly didn't help the Oscar outcome of this past year's Black List approved Saving Mr. Banks), so the pedigree and prestige are certainly already there. Cumberbatch, already beloved on the internet and capable of great work, seems like a perfect fit to bring Turing's complex and tragic story to the screen.

Jack O'Connell Unbroken

The Role: Unbroken is the true story of Olympic runner Louis Zamperini (O'Connell). He survived a plane crash in the Pacific, spent 47 days stranded at sea, and endured 2 and half years in a Japanese POW camp during WWII. Cue the inspirational music.

Why He'll Be Nominated: The film has some pretty impressive credentials: directed by Oscar winner Angelina Jolie, the screenplay is written by the Coen Brothers and based on the novel by Laura Hillenbrand, whose novel about Seabiscuit went on to inspire the Oscar-nominated film. With a Christmas release date and advertising for the film already starting 10 months early in a prime spot during the Winter Olympics (which thrives on inspiring human-interest stories), it seems that it's already being groomed for the next Oscar ceremony. Young British actor Jack O'Connell may not exactly be a household name (he starred as James Cook in a couple season's of the UK Skins), but he's poised to potentially hit big with his lead role in the film. Oscar tends to reward its actors when they're a little older and more seasoned, but I'm guessing that the film, and O'Connell's work in it, won't be overlooked by the Academy. 

Joaquin Phoenix Inherent Vice

The Role: Re-teaming with his director from The Master, Paul Thomas Anderson, Phoenix takes on the role of Larry "Doc" Sportello, a pot-smoking private investigator in 1969 LA that investigates the disappearance of his ex-girlfriend.

Why He'll Be Nominated: Phoenix garnered his third Oscar nomination the last time the two worked together. After this past year's strong work in the Oscar-winning Her, it seems he's really taking his place as one of our most exciting and talented actors working today. His work in those two films alone shows the versatility and range that he's capable of. This film is based on the novel of the same name by celebrated novelist Thomas Pynchon (who has never had any film adaptations of his work until now), with Anderson himself adapting the screenplay as well. Even if the film seems to be a little more light-hearted than most of Anderson's previous work (anyone else think that Phoenix is going to kill as a pothead? He already did all the research he needed with I'm Still Here), it seems safe to say that the director and his star's collaboration should be sure to grab some attention from Oscar. 

Other Possibilities: Christian Bale Exodus, Ralph Fiennes The Grand Budapest Hotel, Gael García Bernal Rosewater, Michael Keaton Birdman, Brad Pitt Fury, Timothy Spall Mr. Turner