Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress 2015

We've now come to the end of my year in advance Oscar predictions. If you haven't already, be sure to check out my picks for Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actor and make sure to come back when the nominees are announced in January to see how well I did. Some years I just don't know...but I'm feeling good about my choices this year -continuing with the 5 actresses I've chosen for Best Supporting Actress. Last year I didn't guess a single one correctly (well, I did have Meryl, but in lead), let's hope this year fares better. There are two former Best Actress winners (including one that hasn't been recognized by the Academy since her win), a couple of Best Actress nominees, and one newbie making up the 5 women I've ultimately chosen. We've previously discussed 4 out of 5 of these films when predicting their co-stars in the lead categories, but surely these actresses' work will shine just as brightly as their scene partners.  

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Best Supporting Actress

Marion Cotillard Macbeth

Rooney Mara Carol

Ellen Page Freeheld

Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet Steve Jobs

Marion Cotillard Macbeth

The Role: "Out, damned spot!" Best Actress winner (and recent nominee) looks to return this year for her role as Shakespeare's manipulative, power-hungry wife Lady Macbeth opposite Michael Fassbender's Scottish king. 

Why She'll Be Nominated: There have actually only been 12 performances from Shakespeare's characters that have managed to score Oscar nominations in any of the 4 acting categories. The last time in this category was 50 years ago with double noms for Maggie Smith's Desdemona and Joyce Redman's Emilia in Olivier's film version of Othello (neither won). And the last acting nomination for a Shakespearen role was Kenneth Branagh 26 years ago for Henry V, so Cotillard definitely has her work cut out for her. But she also has some important key things on her side. Despite versions from Polanski and Welles, there has never been a definitive film version of the Scottish play (which as Shakespeare's shortest and bloodiest seems perfect for cinema), so her interpretation of the character could become the new standard. Having previously been played on stage by Judi Dench, Vivien Leigh, and Helen Mirren, Cotillard finds herself in good company and the character herself has always been an amazing showcase for actresses. And lastly, now that Cotillard, one of the best actresses working today, managed to finally secure a surprise second nomination with the Academy post win (after being passed over for work in Nine and Rust and Bone), it seems that she's in their good graces again. She very well could earn a third nom and a first for a performance in English - and Elizabethan English at that!  

Rooney Mara Carol

The Role: Mara plays Therese Belivet, a young, lonely girl that has moved to New York City to begin her life and longs to be a theater set designer. One day while working at a department store, Therese meets the elegant and older Carol (potential Best Actress nominee Cate Blanchett). The two women soon begin to see each other, forming a romantic relationship. 

  

Why She'll Be Nominated: Like Blanchett in the Lead category, I already predicted that Mara would receive a nomination for her work in this film last year and just like Blanchett, I'm predicting her again. Director Todd Haynes' past three projects have all garnered awards attention for the actresses involved (Winslet, Blanchett, and Moore) because he he's interested in telling women's stories and provides wonderful complex characters for the actresses involved. Mara hasn't really been in the conversation regarding the Oscars since her Best Actress nomination for 2011's Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, but the fact that she's already been nominated before should help nudge votes in her direction. I personally would've liked to have seen Mia Wasikowska, who had originally been cast in the role, but Mara has a melancholy quality that I enjoy and should do well in the part.   

Ellen Page Freeheld

The Role: In her first major role since publicly coming out as a lesbian last February, Page plays Stacie Andree, a car mechanic whose partner Laurel Hester (Julianne Moore) is diagnosed with cancer. Despite their legal status as domestic partners, Andree would not be allowed Hester's pension after she passed away - a right that would not have been denied if Hester had been in a domestic partnership with a man. Based on a true story, the women fought to change this.

Why She'll Be Nominated: In what sounds like a very personal project for Page (who was previously nominated for Best Actress for 2007's Juno), the actress not only stars in the film but also works as a producer and has been involved in the development of this film for over 6 years. While marriage equality is still being fought in the US, Hester and Andree's story will resonant with those that have fought for the right. And despite the advances made in acceptance for same sex couples, during filming the filmmakers encountered some prejudice of their own when a school they had been set to shoot in denied them access because of the film's subject matter. Page seems passionate about the film and I'm sure that passion will come across in her performance. Hopefully the Academy will be paying attention as well.

Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl

The Role: Swedish actress Alicia Vikander plays artist Gerda Wegener in 1920s Copenhagen. She was married to fellow artist Einar (Best Actor winner Eddie Redmayne) and one day when her model didn't show up for a sitting asked Einar if he wouldn't mind taking the female model's place. After he poses several times in the feminine clothing, Einar finds that he wants to transition into becoming a woman, a decision that his wife supports. But she soon finds that once Einar becomes Lili that the relationship is not as it was.

Why She'll Be Nominated: While it seems that Redmayne may be set to receive the bulk of the praise for transforming himself in this film, it seems that just like in The Theory of Everything, that while the husband's story is the one that fascinates people, it is the wife's that is the emotional center. Gerda was a much more famous artist than her husband as well (known for her work in erotica, you can view it here) and her portrait of Lili brought them notoriety. Vikander, who was wonderful in Anna Karenina (2012) and Oscar-nominated Best Foreign Language Film A Royal Affair (2012), is set to have a huge 2015 with around 8(!) films to be released, everything from big-budget action films like Guy Ritchie's The Man from U.N.C.L.E, to a star-studded film about a chef starring Bradley Cooper, and Derek Cianfrance's The Light Between Oceans (co-starring Fassbender and Rachel Weisz). But it's her work in this film that should grab the Academy's attention and lead to a first nomination in what is hopefully a big year for the actress.  

Kate Winslet Steve Jobs

The Role: After being circled by Charlize Theron, Natalie Portman, and Jessica Chastain, it is Winslet that will be playing the part of Joanna Hoffman in the film about the Apple creator. Hoffman was one of the original members of the Macintosh team and was the sole rep for the company's marketing team for the first year and half. She went on to be the head of International Marketing. She has been described as the only person that was able to stand up to Jobs and challenge him.

Why She'll Be Nominated: I love Kate Winslet and with six nominations and a Best Actress win for The Reader, the Academy used to as well. But following her win almost 7 years ago, she has not been nominated since and her film projects recently have not been of the same quality as her previous work. But with a lead role in the Aussie film The Dressmaker, a part in the ensemble that includes Oscar nominees Woody Harrelson, Chiwetel Ejiofor, and Casey Affleck in the crime drama Triple Nine, and her biggest box office success since Titanic with the Divergent films (the sequel opens in a couple weeks), here's hoping that 2015 is the start of a Winslet comeback. But if any of the projects are going to get her back in Oscar's good graces again, it seems most likely with this film. And I will personally be championing her Oscar return.  

Other Possibilities: Helena Bonham Carter Suffragettes, Kirsten Dunst Midnight Special, Jennifer Jason Leigh The Hateful Eight, Elizabeth Olsen I Saw the Light, Amy Ryan St. James Place

Final Best Actress Predictions and a Plea for Cotillard

At the Golden Globes on Sunday, the amazing and Oscar-less Julianne Moore picked up what is sure to be one of many awards on her way to the big prize on Feb 22 for her performance as a professor with early onset Alzheimer's disease in Still Alice. I know a lot of us that worship at the alter of Julie have been eagerly awaiting the day when the actress can call herself an Oscar winner and it's looking more and more likely that this is actually the time. And while I think she does solid work in a pretty forgettable film, I can hardly be upset at the Academy if they finally decide to give her the big prize. (But please forgive me if I imagine it's actually for Safe, Far From Heaven, Boogie Nights...)

And predicting three out of the four other nominees that will join her with a nomination isn't too hard to see either, as they have all joined Moore at almost every juncture as well thus far. Rosamund Pike as disappearing "cool girl" Amy Dunne in Gone Girl, Reese Witherspoon as Cheryl Strayed, the real-life woman that walked the Pacific Crest Trail solo in Wild, and Felicity Jones as the ever-suffering, ever-supportive wife of Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. If any of those four don't hear their name called on Thursday, it would be a shock (which this category could definitely need). And while I'd love to say that Marion Cotillard will easily take that fifth spot for her understated work in Two Days, One Night, it's not looking very likely. Early in the season people were gunning for a return of two-time winner Hilary Swank in The Horsemen, but those dreams dissolved as soon as the film was met with barely a mention. So the fifth spot comes down to two women. Both likable actresses that have each found favor with awards bodies this season. But while most are predicting a Jennifer Aniston nom for the little-seen Cake, thanks to a surge in campaigning and public appearances, for some reason I get a nagging feeling that it's gonna be the other Golden Globe Best Actress winner from Sunday, Amy Adams in Big Eyes. The Academy really likes her, having nominated her 5 times already (not all of them deserved...), and with her recent win and a nom from BAFTA, it just makes me feel she has the best chance still...

It seemed that every year there is the same story about not a lot of choices for Best Actress, but then the same women keep showing up again and again when there are plenty of interesting, outside-of-the-box choices to fill the category. This year the most deserving nominee not only gave one amazing performance getting Oscar buzz (see above), but she gave an even greater one as a Polish woman that comes to America in the early 1920s searching for the American dream...

FYC: Marion Cotillard in The Immigrant as Best Actress

Marion Cotillard has the kind of face, luminously lit from within and boundlessly expressive, that was made for the big screen. It's a timeless face that was made to read ever subtle emotion and  thought as it is projected larger-than-life in a darkened theatre, evoking the work of silent movie stars and classic Hollywood. And in many ways Cotillard's work in James Gray's The Immigrant, playing a Eastern European woman named Ewa Cybulska that escapes the turmoil in her country for a better life in the States, only to find herself caught in a world of poverty and prostitution, is hardly an unfamiliar character. There have been variations on this fallen woman almost as long as the profession itself has been around. But to expect something revelatory in the storytelling or in Ewa herself is to almost miss the point completely. The Immigrant and Cotillard's performance are an homage to classic melodrama. Unapologetically old fashioned, embracing a melancholy mood and romantically-tinged feeling, Cotillard harkens back to the work of such actresses as Ingrid Bergman or Maria Falconetti, and in the celebration of those past greats becomes a revelation herself.

From the moment we see the French Oscar winner, bathed in golden hues at the Great Hall of Ellis Island, alternating between speaking Polish and heavily-accented English, proving that not only is the role emotionally demanding, but technically challenging as well. (Cotillard has said she had only two months in order to learn the new language for the film.) She is at once open and inviting, her warmth drawing the audience in to her story, but at the same time, cautiously guarded. Ewa is not one to wear her emotions on her sleeve, determined to survive and unwavering in her love of her sister. But while Cotillard never gives away Ewa's true feelings to those around her, it is achingly felt by the audience through the slightest of gestures - a fleeting glimpse in her downcast eye or the slight turn of her head. And in moments where she lets her emotional walls break down - like when she is confronted by Bruno (Joaquin Phoenix), the lowlife that has kept her alive through her own degradation, for stealing from a fellow girl or when her Catholic guilt overwhelms her in the confessional booth - Cotillard's restraint dissolves, but without losing control of the character, she indulges in a cathartic release, gently letting the melodrama wash over her radiant face.

Over the years, to describe something as melodramatic has taken on a negative connotation, synonymous with over-indulgent emoting, but Cotillard in The Immigrant proves that you needn't wallow in over-the-top histrionics to stir up the same impassioned sensations. Her performance as Ewa is stirring, insightful, and simply lovely. For an institute like the Academy, which has honored the work of great actresses for the past 87 years, perhaps acknowledging the work of the past by honoring Cotillard with a nomination for her work here, an ode to those bygone icons, would be a way of bridging the storied history with a bright future.  

The Immigrant is available now for streaming on Netflix.

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Final Best Actress Predictions

Amy Adams Big Eyes

Felicity Jones The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore Still Alice

Rosamund Pike Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon Wild

My Favorite Best Actress Performances

Marion Cotillard The Immigrant

Marion Cotillard Two Days, One Night

Essie Davis The Babadook

Scarlett Johansson Under the Skin

Gugu Mbatha-Raw Belle