Sunday, January 26, 2014

My Year in Advance Oscar Predictions 2013: How'd I Do?

I have an annual tradition. Every year, the day after the Oscar ceremony (while the winners are still tightly clutching their new golden guy from the night before), I predict who will be nominated for acting Oscars the following year. It's actually not as hard to predict as it may sound. There are just certain roles and people that naturally lend themselves to awards recognition. So, now that the nominees have been announced, let's gaze back into my crystal ball and see just how well I was at predicting the nominees an entire year in advance.

Don't look so forlorn, Bruce. You may have lost your teeth in the film, but you found a nomination.

Best Actor
Bruce Dern Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey Dallas Buyers Club

The Actual Nominees:
Christian Bale American Hustle
Bruce Dern Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey Dallas Buyers Club

How Many Correctly Guessed: 4/5

Damn that Christian Bale! Damn him, I say! He stood in my way of correctly predicting all 5 of the Best Actor nominees. But, in my defense, it really did look like Hanks was in. No one was even predicting Bale even a few weeks ago, let alone a year ago. I guess the lesson I need to learn now is that David O. Russell gets actors nominations. His past 3 films (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, and American Hustle) have earned 11 nominations in the acting categories (and 3 wins). Of all my years doing this (before my blog I would e-mail my picks to my friends), this is the best I've ever predicted. I really was so close to getting all 5 correct. Looking back, I still would've put Hanks over Bale as Bale just won recently and Hanks is beloved in Hollywood and hasn't been nominated since 2000 for Cast Away. And if someone asked me if I would have predicted that Matthew McConaughey would be an Oscar nominee (and front-runner for the win) about 3 years ago, I would have laughed in their face. But such is the McConeissance (which, if you ask me, should have been the real word of 2013 instead of twerking). Alright, alright, alright.

"You know, I learned a very important lesson this year: not every biopic gets nominated. I guess the film has to actually be good as well..."

Best Actress
Nicole Kidman Grace of Monaco
Julia Roberts August: Osage County
Meryl Streep August: Osage County
Naomi Watts Diana
Kate Winslet Labor Day

The Actual Nominees:
Amy Adams American Hustle
Cate Blanchett Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock Gravity
Judi Dench Philomena
Meryl Streep August: Osage County

How Many Correctly Guessed: 1.5/5 
(The half point is for Roberts who did get Supporting)

I've said it once and I'll say it again: Never doubt an Oscar Nomination for Meryl Streep. Like death and paying taxes, it's just one of those inevitable things. And thank god she actually got in here otherwise I wouldn't have correctly predicted anyone (don't worry, that's coming up shortly). For my favorite category, I don't always do so well with predictions here. I think because I choose actresses that  I personally love over one's that will necessarily garner nominations. I would never predict Sandy Bullock getting awards for acting, but here she is a winner and receiving her second nomination. There are also women that I always end up choosing (Kidman, Winslet, and Keira Knightley–when is that second nomination gonna happen already?!) that the Academy don't seem to love as much as I do. I need to stop predicting Nicole Kidman for the simple fact that she never films things she signs on for or, like with this film, the release gets pushed back. After it was announced that the November release date was being pushed back until the spring of this year, it was not a good sign for Grace. Then, this week, it was dropped from the Weinstein Company's schedule all together...because it had been chosen as the opening film at the Cannes Film Festival. That's a roller coaster of release dates. But now that it will officially be released this year, I'm still not betting on it. And will Kate Winslet ever receive another nomination again? (I haven't seen Labor Day yet, but it's not looking so good.) It seems once she won they shoved her out the door. But, most importantly, what about Naomi Watts in Diana, you ask? Well, the less said about it the better...

Stop laughing at me, Jonah! Is there ANYONE that could've predicted you'd have TWO Oscar nominations?!?

Best Supporting Actor:
Javier Bardem The Counselor
Josh Brolin Labor Day
Steve Carrell Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch The Fifth Estate
Joaquin Phoenix Lowlife

The Actual Nominees:
Barkhad Abdi Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper American Hustle
Michael Fassbender 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club

How Many Correctly Guessed: 0/5

Not only was I unable to predict any of the eventual nominees in this category, but all my choices were so spectacularly bad it's almost laughable. Let's recap: two films that weren't even released this year (Foxcatcher was supposed to be, then it wasn't, then it was going to be released in time for awards season, and then it eventually was rescheduled for this year sometime. And Lowlife played some film festivals with the new title The Immigrant, but again it's release date seems uncertain. IMDB is telling me sometime in April) and then we have three legitimate bombs. The Counselor was on countless worst of the year lists, but I don't even remember anyone mentioning Bardem at all in it. So he got off lucky. Labor Day has also popped up on some of those same lists and it sure didn't help its chances that it still hasn't even been released yet. (It had a week-long qualifying run in LA, so it was eligible for Oscars this year, but that just didn't happen.) And then we have The Fifth Estate. Last year, I had debated on whether or not to put Cumberbatch in the lead or supporting category, but it turns out the film was so bad that it didn't really matter at all! 

"Have sex with a car, they said. Do a crazy accent, they said. You're sure to get an Oscar nomination. What was I thinking?"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett The Monuments Men
Cameron Diaz The Counselor
Margo Martindale August: Osage County
Emma Thompson Saving Mr. Banks
Oprah Winfrey The Butler

The Actual Nominees:
Sally Hawkins Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts August: Osage County
June Squibb Nebraska

How Many Correctly Guessed: 1 0/5 (no Oprah?!)

Remember how I said Bardem got off easy with The Counselor? Well, the same cannot be said of Cameron Diaz who was continually singled out as the worst part of the movie (especially for the scene where she has sex with a car). Rumor has it that she also had to re-record all her dialogue because the Rihanna-like accent she used during filming was too hard to understand. Oh, Cammie D. I like that you keep trying. Hopefully one day it will work out for you. For awhile there, it looked like Emma Thompson and Oprah were actually going to be nominated, but it just wasn't meant to be. Emma ended up in the lead category anyway and Julia Roberts (an actual lead) made her way to this category thus taking away any chances that Margo Martindale had of being nominated. Do I get any points for correctly predicting that Cate Blanchett would get a nomination this year? True, it was in the wrong category and for a movie that got its release date pushed to the wasteland that is February, but it might still count for something. I think the biggest disappointment is that, despite a SAG nomination and being predicted by most pundits, the one and only Oprah failed to get a nomination for Lee Daniels' The Butler. That's the second year in a row that an actress in one of his movies has been shut out in this category despite scoring a SAG nom. I would feel sorry for her if she wasn't so wildly wealthy and successful already.

Make sure you check back on March 3 to see who I predict for Oscar Nominations in 2014!


  1. Replies
    1. thanks, shane! just a bale shy of all 5 correct. maybe this year will be the year i get them all correct...